I have a question that may have no clear answer, but basically I'm wondering whether pretty much anyone who plays go regularly and reads books,etc.. Can improve to like 15, 10, 5 kyu level? Like I'm assuming some people are just naturally good at it for some reason, but with sheer work can you get into single digit kyu levels? Or do some people just hit walls at 12 kyu no matter how much they work at it? I know you should just enjoy it and not worry about rank at first, but I'm just curious as to how much people think go is talent and how much it is effort.

One thing that you have left out is pedagogy. I think that just about anyone of sound mind can reach 5 kyu or so with a good teacher.

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The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins

Visualize whirled peas.

Everything with love. Stay safe.

I think the biggest determinant is how much work you do and how well you do it.

I guess I value discipline over talent or intelligence. It just seems to me that a huge part of improvement is about rehearsing things in detail.

Whether you do that in tsumego, reviews or even during gameplay doesn't matter as much, except if you care for efficiency.

I'm not sure talent comes into it much until very strong kyu ranks. I notice a largish clump of the more serious players around 5k EGF at tournaments, progressing past that seems to require more commitment/talent/teaching/whatever than most people seem willing/able to put in. People like me lagging behind that either aren't playing enough games (me) or not playing long enough or (most sadly) getting teaching games from the wrong people.

I have seen regular players not improving at any level, even as low as 20 kyu. It seemed they were playing enough games and also getting teaching games from time to time. Perhaps they do the same mistakes over and over?

I've known people to play for years casually before they realise that asking yourself if you really need to answer a move is important. They got teaching games but they focused on local fighting mistakes or big moves etc and missed discussing concepts like this and they played other weak ddks all the time so they weren't really seeing this idea in action either.

The phrase I've heard often from pros is that "Anyone can hit 4-5D, but it takes something special to go further."

Personally, I don't believe in talent. But I do believe in accidents and lucky insights.

Probably so. They are also having fun.

_________________
The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins

Visualize whirled peas.

Everything with love. Stay safe.

Like you said, the question has no clear answer.

Something is seen to be possible only after it has been done. Ask runners if a four minute mile was possible in the 1800s, and I wouldn't be surprised if they said it wasn't. Now, people can run two miles in just over 8 minutes.

Anyway, if you have a goal, just try it. Maybe you can achieve it, and maybe you can't. Hopefully, you still have fun.

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be immersed

Thanks for all your comments. It's encouraging that most of you said discipline and hard work play a big part. I asked the question because I was thinking of making 15 kyu as a goal for myself, and then I thought, "What if some people just can't do that?" It's nice to think it is at least possible.

How long have you been playing? It usually takes about 8 - 10 years to reach your level of incompetence. When I was 4 kyu I did not dream of becoming a dan player, and when I was shodan I did not imagine becoming 5 dan.

Making 15 kyu is nice, and having goals is good. But at this point you are probably better off making goals like advancing one stone in one month, or even better, goals related to developing specific skills.

Good luck!

_________________
The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins

Visualize whirled peas.

Everything with love. Stay safe.

15k is really very much possible for nearly anyone. There's no need to feel anxious about that goal.

If you work hard at it, you'll probably shoot past that level a lot faster than you'll expect.

"if the foundation is good, you can build as high as you want"

let's first start with goals.
if you want to hit SDK in a year by yourself? probably doable.
if you want to hit 5d in a year? probably not doable by yourself, possibly doable with a teacher

anybody can get pretty strong in go, but it depends on effort, and more importantly, what you learn. there are a lot of basic fundamentals in go that you probably will never get on your own or even from people that are "stronger" than you.

if you're starting out and you're willing to invest a lot of time in it, get a teacher and there's a good chance you'll be a strong dan in 2-3 years.

outside of that, your chances of doing it on your own are very limited.

I think you have a point, but I don't agree 100%. Mostly, because people learn in different ways.

Stepping aside from the topic of go, I remember taking the computer science GRE subject test for grad school. The test is pretty thorough, and covers what you might typically learn as an undergrad majoring in CS.

Anyway, most of my friends "had teachers" throughout college, in the sense that they went to class, did the assignments, and completed homework...

But the scores students got varied greatly. Even "A-students" sometimes did poorly on the test, sometimes. One case that sticks out to me, though, is Mik - a friend I knew also from the go club. By typical standards, he was a horrible student. He didn't go to class, rarely did homework, and often just took exams. Most of his grades were just barely passing.

But he is the best computer scientist that I have ever met. On the computer science gre, he had nearly perfect score, and he was an excellent programmer. He also performed very well in programming competitions.

Anyway, maybe Mik learned in an unconventional way, but I still believe he is the most skilled computer scientist I have ever met.

Coming back to go, people learn in different ways. Some might benefit well from the "standard" teacher-student method. But there are also some "Miks" in go, who can learn well on their own. And conversely, some students may get stuck at a rank, even with years of having a teacher.

Knowledge is the gift, and teachers are just one form of wrapping paper. Focus on the gift, and not the paper. You might be able to find the gift in unconventional ways.

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be immersed

So you're saying the one CS programmer that became good regardless of the education system proves that people should consider the possibility of eschewing teachers... right.

I feel that there are too many subtletites in go to become a solid dan on your own. Case in point, there's a guy in our club who got up through the ranks only by playing online, dude plays close to 700 games a month online. he could be considered a dan by most peoples standards, but he makes a lot of fundamental shape/judgement mistakes that he can still be taken down by a lesser player. And this is a guy that plays 700 games a month. If we take a person who at most plays 4 games a week, i say his chances to quickly, solidly, and easily become a dan are very much reduced.

but again, it all comes down to goals. if you want to become a dan in 5-10 years, you could possibly do it on your own.

I seem to be good at evasive answers on these questions (mostly because I agree with Kirby, I don't think the question has a clear answer), but here's my 2p:

What are you playing for? What are you hoping to improve for? Is it the sense of achievement / satisfaction of eventually reaching X grade? Will that still satisfy you looking back at the time you spent achieving it instead of millions of other things?

I know it's not really answering the question, but I play Go because I enjoy it, and I miss it when I don't for extended periods. When I've wanted to improve my game, I've bought books, watched reviews, practiced life and death, mostly because I want to feel like I understand it a bit more. As my understanding has grown, so has my rank. Will I ever reach 5d? I've no idea, nor do I particularly care or strive for it. Certainly with the lack of games and time I commit at the moment I consider it highly unlikely, but it doesn't bother me - when I do get the chance to play, I enjoy myself. Occasionally I play enough and have enough fun that I get that niggling Go bug and study to learn a bit more, which from time to time ends up reflecting back on my playing strength, and so the cycle continues.

If you enjoy the game, and want to play it more, just play. If you want to understand more, ask people, get books on the subject confusing you, and I think the chance that the combination of playing and doing that will push you into SDK ranks eventually is very high.

No, I'm simply saying that people learn in different ways. What's important is the learning. For some people, when this is wrapped within a teacher, it works well for them. But I don't believe that a teacher is some sort of silver bullet for learning. Teacher can help, books can help, experience can help... Many things can help.

But I think people are different, and one particular thing isn't the best for everybody.

When I read your post, it sounds like you believe that having teacher is the most efficient way for improvement for all people. I agree that having a teacher can be helpful in many cases. But I don't agree it's the best for all people, all the time.

Saying it takes 5-10 years to become dan unless you have a teacher sounds to be a bit "propaganda-ish" to me

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be immersed