Bill Spight wrote:
mitsun wrote:
Bill Spight wrote:
The trouble with making smaller plays in a winning position is the possibility of making a later error that is larger than the smaller margin of victory.
Surely that is part of the calculation of risk, which the computer is minimizing, to the best of its ability.
Well, if it is estimating the probability of winning, that estimate has an error. Also, how is the probability defined? By random rollouts?
The actual algorithm is a bit too stratified to be a comfortable thing to put into a few words. But towards the end of the game it is navigating towards a solid win.
It would probably detect
tedomari just by pseudo-random rollouts, as you suggest, for example. And likewise any type of play which "clarifies" a win in that fashion. Some noise allowed.
That may be what happened near the end of game 5, when it played a one point reverse
sente, and Redmond commented that it was "small".
That, though, is likely an over-simplification, since there was a potential
ko top left that we didn't see played out. AlphaGo doesn't manage its threats as a pro would; it assumes it can see enough in concrete variations (and so can be wrong) but nothing is bolted on to its assessments, when it comes down to it. But I think it may maximise its larger threats, as held in reserve, under some circumstances - it's an interesting issue.
The
style is a sort of organic, holistic, fallible, conservative playing of the percentages. Not much self-doubt built in! But pretty good at "playing for money", I hazard. One way to define a pro, we shouldn't forget.
Bill Spight wrote:
In general one maximizes the probability of winning by maximizing the territory difference. Against that, if one is ahead, one can often play safe. Many of the plays that these programs make when ahead do not appear to be playing safe, they look silly.
The aliens have landed, and they don't look in mirrors.
Consider that DeepMind started with a machine that learned to play Space Invaders, and their process could create a "pinball wizard". Cf. The Who,
Tommy, lyrics
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/who/goto ... orboy.htmlMaybe if AlphaGo listens to you, Bill, it will found a new religion ...