Oh, do you mean betting sites are offering more if you bet on AlphaGo? I didn't assume anything about odds from his post.

_________________
be immersed

I don't know which odds (if any) are offered. I just assumed that if someone is betting on other than favourite (in his mind), it must be because of the odds.

_________________
Offending ad removed

It looks like that bitbet site is offering evens odds. Given most people think 4/1 or 5/0 to Lee is the likely outcome this is a very good value bet.

My only issue with this bet is that there's a secondary bet involved, which is that you actually get your payout should you win. The reviews on bitbet are pretty shady, and it looks like currently they are suspending payouts because of a Chinese attack of some sort.

L19 users could always come to a personal arrangement for betting amongst themselves. I will offer a £10 bet that Lee will win the series at evens (so if you want to take me up on this bet and you think AlphaGo will win then the loser pays the winner £10 via Paypal or inter-bank transfer (I'm in the UK so would prefer not to give paypal their cut)). I reserve the right to accept or decline offers based on your L19 reputation.

Because I feel both sides have basically similar chances of winning with Lee only slightly ahead, and despite this, the overwhelming majority of the Go community (and the general public at least in Korea, where I live) seems to think Lee will win easily. So if a bet goes up, and the majority bets for Lee, I thought betting against Lee would promise a bigger expected value.

However, it seems at least in the west, I underestimated the weight "Google" carries in the layperson's mind. I visited BitBet.com and it looks like a lot of people there who know nothing about Go (which probably is the majority) are showing their faith in the IT giant. If that's the case, surely I should re-think my betting strategy.

GoRatings got five new games for Fan Hui, and they're all losses. Hope everyone has time to put the new ELO figures into their calculations before the first game starts.

_________________
Occupy Babel!

Evil!

_________________
- Brady
Want to see videos of low-dan mistakes and what to learn from them? Brady's Blunders

Here are the final poll results.

AlphaGo wins the first game by resignation! 28 people are already wrong, more than the 17 who voted for any margin of AlphaGo victory!

The robots are taking over!!! everyone evacuate to the Moon!

Nouuuu!!!

It was a fascinating game!

That was great!

I wish they'd put up separate streams in addition to the official one. It would be nice to get one stream for the game-room and one for the demo board so that we could choose how much screen real-estate to give to each and also have the option to watch other commentaries, instead of the official one. The official broadcast seemed to be constantly showing the wrong one at the wrong time and showing far too little of the game-room and the players themselves.

I watched a bit of the AGA broadcast because it had more detailed commentary and they seemed to have a stream from the game-room in the top-left corner. Does anyone know where to get that feed?

(Yeah, I have a 27-inch monitor and all-the-Internets, I can stream more than one thing and YouTube certainly has the bandwidth for it.)

I was expecting AlphaGo to win, but Lee really seemed to believe in himself. It was really bad watching him for the last ~15 minutes, you could see the pain and sadness on his face whenever the camera went to him. Pretty damn rough, really emotive. His hands were shaking too, and also the computer's move relayer's hands were shaking quite a bit earlier (around when the lower right area was being completed). I wonder if it was 'obvious' to the computer (if it shows its winrate) that it had won at that point, and the relayer could see it. And the move towards the top right, where the computer played the wrong atari - that was the point I figured it knew for sure it was going to win as it was such a 'basic' mistake. That must have been so damn intimidating for Lee, almost like it was mocking him.

Intense, can't wait for tomorrow. I hope Lee doesn't get too down if he loses 5-0.

One of the key moments for me was Lee's bad timing of the s13 atari. If there's one thing bots are good at it is deciding if your move is really sente or a bluff and playing something else more important first. I hope he can put this loss behind him and not be so careless in the next game. He needs to maintain concentration for every move, the bot is merciless at punishing fake sentes.

Yes.

_________________
be immersed

Even Michael Redmond 9p admitted during the broadcast that he didn't know how to pronounce Lee Sedol's name correctly. Apparently this is more of a matter of whether one knows Korean.

_________________
Patience, grasshopper.

I am not certain, but I thought Lee Sedol's hand-shaking was counting.

_________________
- Brady
Want to see videos of low-dan mistakes and what to learn from them? Brady's Blunders

I am one of the 28. Glad I didn't find a site that let me bet on that outcome. I might have lost a good chunk of change.

_________________
- Brady
Want to see videos of low-dan mistakes and what to learn from them? Brady's Blunders

I'm pretty sure that was counting rather tha shaking. But his face did look painful at the end.