Life In 19x19

Bill, attached find two files generated by the GRP for the analysis of the discussed game, the analysis done with Leela Zero, ELF weights. One of the files is all moves, 100k playouts, the other is moves 30-181, 200k playouts.

Some comments:
The analysis was done by someone else, I cannot run it ...

Wishing luck to Lukas, voted for Mateusz.

Chi2 tests results added to the second post.

My preference would have been to use a different bot, such as Elf, to estimate the chunks by Carlo. But you're the one who has made the most thorough analysis, and you used Leela 11.
Just give me a bit more time, the results of the analysis with Leela Zero (ELF weights) are already in the pipeline ...

Then, if W(X) is the win rate of move at X, then: delta = W(B2)-W(A2)
Maybe I can answer this instead of Bill. :) You got it absolutely correct! Just note that my deltas are defined with an opposite sign, but that's not important. I just wanted to have positive value when the player finds a ...

I have asked Lukas Podpera (ID lukan here), one of the top European players, to give his "expert view" on the moves in the discussed game that he finds suspicious. I am translating the comments he attached (in Czech) to the game record:
:b29: this move is not played much nowadays as alpha-go joseki ...

Bill, I appreciate your extensive analysis a lot, it is really good to get different and well argued views. However, I tend to agree more with Milos on some points. First of all, it is really hard to say what move was Carlo's Leela suggesting (assuming he used it) at the time he was making his ...

I have uploaded an analysis of 10 games played by Ondrej Kruml, a Czech 5d player. The links are in the second message of this thread and the OP was also altered slightly to reflect the appearance of the new data. They should serve for comparison with the results obtained for the two sets of games ...

Something for Bill: MettaBenDavid.rsgf.zip
This is a rsgf file generated by GRP for the Metta-BenDavid PGETC game, all moves. The analysis was done with 300k+ nodes, so it should be slightly more precise than what I use normally. It is quite fresh, I have not checked it myself yet but intend to ...

Expect more later.[/b]
Can we expect more non Carlo files?

Sure, in some time. :) I have the analysis of Ondrej Kruml (Czech 5d) games almost complete. Preliminary, I can say, his percentage of good moves ranges from about 40% to almost 70% (in one game from 8).

What troubles me right now is ...

Please note that these three runs provide the best estimates for the winrate of :w50: (for Black).
Sure, looking for the best move for :b51: provides the winrate for :w50:. That's how it is done (see column "winrate") in my spreadsheets.

Using Go Review Partner I don't think you want just the ...

It does not tell us whether he used Leela, got someone else playing instead of him or whatever. It just says that is is very unlikely that Metta's regular games and internet games "were played by the same person".


... but it says that Metta played differently in "those" regular games compared ...

I am not talking about proof of cheating, but of the comparison between Metta's play and that of his opponents (win-loss aside). I haven't seen any test of that comparison aside from the one I did on your early data, which showed no significant difference. Statistically, Carlo's play online was ...

IMO the whole analysis is deeply flawed because the very basis of the analysis: the "Leela top 3 suggestions" is undefined, ...
Jan, have you noted that my analysis does not use the "top 3 suggestions". Maybe you speak here about someone's else analysis. :) What my analysis does use are the ...

I have uploaded the new version (automated runs with Go Review Partner) of the analysis for Carlo's regular games. In the second post I put the links to the sheets and to the pertinent rsgf files generated by the GRP. Using those one can also review the games and see all the suggestions made by the ...