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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #41 Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:29 pm 
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jlt wrote:
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Informative, yes.
But I feel sad and left out.
I know, The Netherlands is only a small country, but we do have a fairly active go community over here and over 30 clubs around this small country. Amsterdam hosts one of the largest tournaments in Europe and several strong players are from The Netherlands.
I probably also speak for other nationalities (Belgium, Spain, to name a few).
(I understand this was not intentional)

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #42 Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:34 pm 
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I concur with many observations already made above.
Perhaps I can contribute a little bit to the discussion.

Maybe go players could learn from marketing/sales/promotion.
E.g. the AIDA model of awareness (or attention), interest, desire, action (I know, this model is old, but still reasonably valid, I think).
Action I would describe as joining a club or association.
AlphaGo raised awareness, but failed to raise interest.
Why?
As someone said already: it did not raise appeal (read: interest, desire).
Why?
I think because for (most, new) people to become interested, the main appeal is the social aspect (already mentioned before).
We have not been very good to convert the AlphaGo technological appeal to the social appeal.
AlphaGo is too far of kids and newcomers to raise interest. They don't care about computers, AI, $600m investment, pro games, win rate probabilities, neural networks (what's that?), etc. They just want to have some fun time and enjoy people's company. Go players generally do not tend to be very outspoken or charismatic.
If we want to broaden the base in terms of number of players (I understand this post is about that, not about higher levels, learning, teaching), we perhaps should try to be more extravert, less nerdy, more social, more outgoing. Just mingle (in business terms: do some networking), visit schools, go to public events, etc.


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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #43 Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:54 pm 
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sybob wrote:
I know, The Netherlands is only a small country, but we do have a fairly active go community over here and over 30 clubs around this small country. Amsterdam hosts one of the largest tournaments in Europe and several strong players are from The Netherlands.
I probably also speak for other nationalities (Belgium, Spain, to name a few).


I have to admit that I chose to compare a few European countries with "large" go playing populations (+UK since this is a thread about Alphago) but I wasn't aware that The Netherlands has one of the highest ratios (EGD registered players)/(total population) in Europe:

Attachment:
ratio.png
ratio.png [ 12.64 KiB | Viewed 6450 times ]


Unfortunately, as in most other countries except Russia, the number of go players has been declining since 2010:

Attachment:
EGDplayers.png
EGDplayers.png [ 25.9 KiB | Viewed 6450 times ]


I may have forgotten a few other very active countries. My point was not to be exhaustive, but to stress the fact that it is still possible to make progress, although Hikaru no Go no longer has any effect, but it is not so surprising that AlphaGo didn't help to reverse the post-2010 decline. That an AI can play better than humans is not enough to convince you that a game is interesting, you need an experienced player to talk about the game and explain you why it is interesting. Perhaps most people who heard about go game after the AlphaGo events weren't even aware they would be welcome at a go club, so maybe they tried a few games on the internet and didn't find a reason to continue.

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #44 Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:52 am 
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Would be interesting to compare Go player / population ratios and Chess player / population ratios to see if those countries with higher ones also tend to be more into board games generally as part of their culture. Maybe International Maths Olympiad medals / population too?

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #45 Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:40 am 
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The ratio EGF rated/population is poorly correlated with the ratio FIDE rated/population:

Attachment:
fide.png
fide.png [ 13.03 KiB | Viewed 6396 times ]


(But maybe the number of FIDE rated players does not reflect accurately chess activity, so it's hard to tell whether popularity of go is related or not to popularity of chess in Europe.)

Comparison with IMO medals is irrelevant, as the number of IMO medals depends heavily on
  • the number of students who prepare specifically to that competition;
  • the quality of the preparation.

Moreover, there is no reason why go game should attract essentially scientific minds. In Asia, children are exposed to go much earlier than in western countries, before showing any inclination towards science or literature.

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #46 Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:17 am 
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jlt wrote:
Moreover, there is no reason why go game should attract essentially scientific minds. In Asia, children are exposed to go much earlier than in western countries, before showing any inclination towards science or literature.


But in asia, go is part of the culture, close to what chess is in the west (and indeed, children here are exposed to chess early). In the west, it's an exotic game.

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #47 Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:52 am 
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I dont mind the social aspect of Go. So no problem if the players count is declining. I just want to play. But I am a weird person ;-)


Just chill and enjoy Go.

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #48 Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:20 pm 
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Uberdude wrote:
That's a shame. Am I right in thinking this is largely because you have fallen out of love with go (in large part due to arrival of strong go bots) and not because you think, were you mentally in the same place as a few years ago, the congress will be worse now than before? Or does the fact Andy Liu and Ryan Li will play an AI pair go game, or during a lecture they might talk about AI inspired moves like early 3-3 invasions, or your opponents play such moves actively turn you off?


Well, I regret my decision now. I can be too stubborn sometimes- I mean, seriously...

I downloaded the US Go Congress app, and read the profiles of several of the attendees who had filled them out. I was filled with nostalgia, regret, and sadness that I didn't attend this year.

What changed from a couple of days ago? Is my perspective on computer go any different? No, that's not it. I thought about it more, and I think I have the answer.

For awhile now, I was missing the big picture. I was turned off by the fact that I could study for hours a day for several years, and even if I became 9d, some kid on his laptop could refute my moves.

Maybe succinctly, the inequality could be expressed as:

my_go_ability < computer --> Why is the effort worth it?

But in light of the Go Congress, I realized that I'm missing a variable here. It's not my_go_ability in isolation. Rather, what's relevant here is:

my_go + my_community

Where my_community is the group of friends I've acquired over the years online and in person who share a rare but common interest in go. And perhaps my_community is one of the reasons I was interested in my_go_ability in the first place.

Until computers are able to simulate my_community, I can confidently say that:

my_go + my_community > computer; maybe not in terms of go strength, but definitely in terms of value.

So I guess what I'm trying to say is:
1. I've been stubborn for awhile
2. It was a big mistake not to go to the Go Congress this year. I already deeply regret it
3. Go might not be worth playing if I'm the only one that plays. But with my community both on L19 and at the US Go Congress, go is a medium through which we can derive happiness.

Maybe it's kind of like how it's fun to drink with friends, but a bit lonely when you're by yourself. Not sure if that analogy works :scratch:

Anyway, I miss my friends at the Go Congress, and to anyone who is attending, please enjoy yourselves to the fullest extent possible!

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #49 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:23 am 
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If you could play go perfectly, what would be the point of playing? Of course, most of us experience emotions such as pleasure, enjoyment, disgust for making a mistake, frustration with your opponent for playing badly so the game isn't fun, etc. And AI players experience none of this. I guess my point is that we play go for human reasons, not to play perfectly. We may want to improve our understanding of the game, to have more challenging partners, etc. I am reminded of a go friend, a SDK player, who didn't want to become a strong dan level player because he could not then enjoy even games with his friends. We are all going to peak in ability to play, and then, perhaps, to decline. That's just how humans are. Recognition of human pleasure and sharing the game is important. Going to and playing at a club or salon can be rich in human interaction and pleasure. Playing on line can offer some of these pleasures and can even lead to real friendship, but it is different from in-person playing at a club or a congress. My fear is that this sort of person-to-person sharing is dying in the internet age.


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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #50 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:03 am 
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Quote:
I was turned off by the fact that I could study for hours a day for several years, and even if I became 9d, some kid on his laptop could refute my moves.


It seems like this sentence is a little bit arrogant.

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #51 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:10 am 
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I was turned on by the fact that I studied go for years and now finally the 9 Dans who told me 20 years ago an early 3-3 invasion is stupid, have to reconsider their advice to beginners of this fine game. ;-)

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #52 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:02 pm 
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Gomoto wrote:
Quote:
I was turned off by the fact that I could study for hours a day for several years, and even if I became 9d, some kid on his laptop could refute my moves.

It seems like this sentence is a little bit arrogant.

I think you are misreading it if you think that Kirby is claiming that he could actually become 9d.

Meanwhile, I am having a great time at the Congress so far, despite the continual rain and losing my first round game by 0.5 points after making multiple unnecessary defensive moves because I thought I was ahead by plenty (I tried to count, I swear). Sorry that I don't get to meet you this year, Kirby - maybe next time!


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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #53 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:20 pm 
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Gomoto wrote:
Quote:
I was turned off by the fact that I could study for hours a day for several years, and even if I became 9d, some kid on his laptop could refute my moves.


It seems like this sentence is a little bit arrogant.


Not sure why.

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #54 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:22 pm 
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dfan wrote:
Sorry that I don't get to meet you this year, Kirby - maybe next time!


I'll be there fore sure :salute:

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #55 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:51 pm 
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It sounds a little bit arrogant as in someone with a few years of go study is superior to a kid with a laptop.

But perhaps someone with a few years in go study is indeed superior? ;-)

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #56 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:41 pm 
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Someone that put in effort to get strong deserves it. They worked hard for it. Someone that boots up LeelaZero and asks for an answer doesn't need to put in any effort - it's like they got the answer from a friend.

Note, I am using the laptop example as a contrast here. It's possible that someone studies hard and uses a computer program to assist their studies.

My point is this: I respect strength born from effort more than strength born from a GPU.

I don't think this is an arrogant perspective.

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #57 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:58 pm 
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Years of effort are worth respect without doubt.
AI can be used respectfully.

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 Post subject: Re: What went wrong with AlphaGo ?
Post #58 Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:53 pm 
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Agree :-)

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