Uberdude wrote:
Back on the PGETC case (2 years ago! shame we don't have better automated systems like we talked about way back then), the matching metric used as evidence someone was cheating, subsequently overturned on appeal, was "game move was in top 3 choices of Leela 0.11". Here's some stats for that matching metric, and top 1 choice, I collected. Note the pros were lower than mid and high dan amateurs, probably because they are stronger than old Leela (this was before superhuman LeelaZero, KataGo etc).
Code:
+-----------------+------+----------------+------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Black | Rank | White | Rank | B top 3 | W top 3 | B top 1 | W top 1 |
+-----------------+------+----------------+------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| [Carlo Metta] | 4d | Reem Ben David | 4d | * 98 | 80 | * 72 | 54 | http://pandanet-igs.com/system/sgfs/6374/original/WWIWTFDSGS.sgf
| Andrey Kulkov | 6d | [Carlo Metta] | 4d | 80 | * 86 | 68 | * 62 | http://pandanet-igs.com/system/sgfs/6314/original/AMTRMFSDAB.sgf
| Dragos Bajenaru | 6d | [Carlo Metta] | 4d | 74 | * 78 | 50 | * 60 | http://pandanet-igs.com/system/sgfs/6354/original/JRZPCWSANY.sgf
| [Andrew Simons] | 4d | Jostein Flood | 3d | 80 | 88 | 54 | 62 | http://pandanet-igs.com/system/sgfs/6612/original/XSJUGZZTOX.sgf
| Geert Groenen | 5d | [Daniel Hu] | 4d | 74 | 66 | 40 | 46 | http://britgo.org/files/pandanet2016/mathmo-GGroenen-2017-01-10.sgf
| [Ilya Shikshin] | 1p | Artem Kachan. | 1p | 56 | 76 | 38 | 60 | http://pandanet-igs.com/system/sgfs/6384/original/RYSGTEGMXT.sgf
| [Andrew Simons] | 4d | Victor Chow | 7d | 84 | 76 | 44 | 44 | http://britgo.org/files/pandanet2014/RoseDuke-Egmump-2015-01-13.sgf
| Cornel Burzo | 6d | [A. Dinerstein]| 3p | 74 | 66 | 40 | 48 | http://pandanet-igs.com/system/sgfs/6349/original/SCNSFSJXTI.sgf
| Jonas Welticke | 6d | [Daniel Hu] | 4d | 54 | 64 | 34 | 42 | http://britgo.org/files/pandanet2017/mathmo-iryumika-2017-12-12.sgf
| [Park Junghwan] | 9p | Lee Sedol | 9p | 74 | 64 | 64 | 38 | http://www.go4go.net/go/games/sgfview/68053
| Lothar Spiegel | 5d | [Daniel Hu] | 4d | 66 | 58 | 48 | 42 | http://britgo.org/files/pandanet2016/mathmo-Mekanik-2017-04-25.sgf
| Gilles v.Eeden | 6d | [Viktor Lin] | 6d | 82 | 70 | 56 | 46 | http://pandanet-igs.com/system/sgfs/6616/original/FMKVQBHBBV.sgf
+-----------------+------+----------------+------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
As a chart at
https://www.lifein19x19.com/viewtopic.p ... 60#p229460From that table, I would say that the data is inconclusive, because there is not a lot of correlation between the player grade and the match percentage.
For example, Carlo Metta 4d, Reem Ben David 4d, Jostein Flood 3d and Andrew Simons 4d all have a higher match than than the average 6d+ players.
I suppose that might be explained by these players training a lot with Leela, perhaps specifically to prepare for this tournament.
The 98% in the first row is very high, but his opponent also had a high top 3 match in that game. So it could still be explained by this particular game happening to be similar to the kind of game that Leela plays, perhaps because both players trained a lot with Leela.
So my feeling is that these number are insufficient to draw a solid conclusion. I think the game content should at least be scrutinized in more detail by some human experts (do they exist?).