ke jie seems to be white again... that's a good thing for ke jie... right?

If we consider that 2 of his 3 losses against lee sedol were with white though... :s

No, his 2nd loss against Lee (4th game of MLILY final) was with black.

I think Ke Jie still prefers White in general.

that was a stupid typo. 2 of his, not his of his.

Semifinal,
3rd game:
Ke Jie defeated Lee Sedol by resign.
Lee Sedol vs Ke Jie 1:2
Ke Jie advances to final.....

Tuo Jiaxi defeated Fan Yunruo by resign.
Tuo Jiaxi vs Fan Yunruo 2:1
Tuo Jiaxi advances to final!!!!!!!

I think Ke is the heavy favourite for the final: he's 6 wins 1 loss against Tuo and that loss was in 2013 by 1.5 with 5 wins since (all resign).

that's... an even better record than against lee sedol...

Here's their last game, from the Quzhou-Lane Cup semi-final (richest Chinese domestic tournament). A masterful game from Ke Jie. He lost in the final to Mi Yuting though. Here's hoping their Samsung cup game is as exciting and tesuji-filled.

Apropos of this game, what's the story behind this:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code

[go]$$c
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . 5 3 4 . . . . . 9 . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . X , 2 . 6 . . 8 . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |[/go]

Specifically, I don't think I've seen above before that I can recall, and am not sure I understand it. Is white just trying to make gote with the assumption that there's no real base to speak of and white will be focusing primarily on influence and or sabaki with this group later? Is it specific to the increased corner aji of the (in this diagram) upper right enclosure? Is there something else I'm missing, or some specific sequence it is designed to provoke or avoid?

The basic idea behind that 8, as I understand it is: it's a 4th line stone so wants to add a move to finish to the 3rd line and if white gets to do so it's a nice formation (probably here it would be to o17 to aim at 3-3 attachment?) and nicer than 3rd line and adding a move, so black is more likely to play in that area again to deny white the 2nd extension. But because it is closer than the normal extension white need not fear an invasion so can then tenuki. I've also seen that closer move on the 3rd line a few times, but the idea of that seems to be different: playing solidly rather than expecting to get sente because of course then the checking extension has less followup. It's also been popular in the last 2 years after approaching a mini/micro-Chinese plus 3-4, e.g. http://ps.waltheri.net/database/game/69980/. That invasion sequence seems to be a joseki now. Interestingly enough the first occurrence in ps.waltheri is by unknown Chinese 5p Zhao Shouxun in 2007 but it didn't catch on until Kim Jiseok played it in 2014 and there's 32 games since.

Going to be busy month for Ke Jie: three finals (Samsung, Bailing, and Ahan Tongshan Cup against Kono Rin) and one quarterfinal/semifinal (Chunlan Cup).

Goratings has Tuo Jiaxi as #3 in the world now, just behind Park Junghwan. I think Tuo has as good a chance as anyone of stopping Ke Jie. But that isn't saying much, Ke Jie is just too strong right now. Go4Go records Ke Jie as having a lifetime 71.1% winning percentage, which is pretty insane. He regularly plays against the best in the world, and he wins 7 out of 10 games.

and that's lifetime. He's 18-4 this year in the Chinese A league, and he was captain (i.e playing the toughest opponents) every round.

Since the start of 2013 Ke Jie is 207/275 (75%), in 2014 was 54/69 (78%), in 2015 was 73/91 (80%) and so far this year 56/77 (73%) going by games in go4go.

Actually this seems par for the course, if you are the top player. We'll have to wait a while for Ke Jie to decline with age, but if you take only peak periods, Yi Ch'ang-ho was over 80% at one point, and Go Seigen was well over 70% (and despite often giving handicaps, Sakata was over 70%, and Cho Hun-hyeon...

If you look at lifetime averages of those who have actually lived for quite a bit longer than Ke:

Yi Ch'ang-ho is still on 70%.
Yi Se-tol is on 67%.
Go Seigen is on 66% (but in his case he took White almost 60% of the time - and usually no komi -whereas most other players come out much closer 50% White)
Cho Hun-hyeon is also on 66%
Gu Li is on 64%
Cho Chikun and Sakata are both on 61%

If you class these as the Truly Great and take, as a kind of reference point, typical lifetime averages for the Perhaps Not Quite So Great, you'll typically get figures like 55% for both Nie Weiping and Takemiya and Rin Kaiho.

Going back to young players who have not yet had time to decline, Iyama is on 69% and Pak Cheong-hwan is on 67%.

All data come from the GoGoD database, so coverage is not 100%, but is not far short, and it includes some amateur/handicap games for all of them, and excludes jigos.

Thanks John. Although I do think Ke Jie is the best right now, he will have to stay on top a while longer to be in the same ranks as Go Seigen, Yi Changho, Cho Chikun, etc. Winning the Samsung Cup again would certainly be good for his legacy

I don't think go4go tries to have perfect coverage of any players, especially in their early years when they play a lot of preliminaries. That could sway Ke's percentage in either direction, depending on how games were selected.

_________________
Occupy Babel!

John, thank you for this data as it puts things in historical perspective. However, the numbers that you mention completely miss a crucial point - strength of competition.

Take a look at how deep the talent pool is in China right now. Using goratings, Tang Weixing, a two-time world champion and reigning Ing Cup winner is only the 13th best player in China. Fan Tingyu, also an Ing Cup winner who recently won an unprecedented 8 games in a row in the Nong Shim Cup, is only the 14th best player in China. It makes perfect sense that goratings, using an ELO system which accounts for the strength of opponent, currently has Ke Jie at the highest ELO rank in go history.

Now one can debate the accuracy of ELO and potential inflation of ELO ranks over time. But for the past 20 years or so, the #1 player in the world has consistently been in the 3500 range in ELO. Lee Changho at his peak - when he dominated with the highest win % in history - could never break through to 3600. Only in the past two years has Ke Jie been able to break that barrier. If you examine closer and view Ke Jie's match list,it is a gauntlet of tough players with very few layups. Lee Changho had relatively weaker competition with plenty of easy matches on his schedule. It is my opinion that Ke Jie's past two years is the strongest two year run in go history.

Lets take a quick look at Ke Jie's recent form. Here is his match list over the past two months:


Date Rating Color Result Opponent Kifu
2016-12-03 3630 Black Win Tan Xiao 3474
2016-12-01 3630 White Loss Kim Jiseok 3495
2016-11-21 3630 White Win Shi Yue 3521
2016-11-18 3630 Black Win Zhou Ruiyang 3516
2016-11-14 3630 White Win Lee Donghoon 3460
2016-11-10 3630 Black Win Ida Atsushi 3261
2016-11-08 3630 White Win Tang Weixing 3461
2016-11-06 3630 Black Win Ahn Kukhyun 3300
2016-11-04 3630 Black Win Zhong Wenjing 3337
2016-11-02 3630 White Win Lee Sedol 3508
2016-11-01 3630 White Loss Lee Sedol 3508
2016-10-31 3630 Black Win Lee Sedol 3508
2016-10-28 3630 White Win Guo Wenchao 3308
2016-10-15 3629 White Loss Mi Yuting 3539
2016-10-14 3629 White Win Tuo Jiaxi 3542
2016-10-12 3629 White Win Chen Yaoye 3490
2016-10-10 3629 Black Win Choi Cheolhan 3477
2016-10-08 3629 White Win Xie Ke 3290
2016-10-06 3629 Black Win Zhou Ruiyang 3513
2016-10-04 3628 White Win Lee Donghoon 3460

Ke Jie has gone 17-3 for an 85% win rate and the competition is ridiculously strong. He faced Lee Sedol x3. Mi Yuting, Tuo Jiaxi, Zhou Ruiyang x2, Shi Yue, Kim Jiseok, Chen Yaoye and Choi Cheolhan are all world champions. 11 out of 20 games were against world champions with an average ELO of around 3500. Furthermore he had 2 games with Lee Donghoon, Korea's #7 player and 3460 ELO rating, and Tan Xiao, China's #8 and ELO rating of 3474.

This brings us to a wider point that is often debated in many disciplines - old vs new and the general progression of skill level over the years. Historians especially revere past eras and will generally take the stance that the older generations were just as good if not better than the new kids. Quite a few baseball historians will say that Ty Cobb or Ted Williams was the best hitter to every play the game and point to their seasons where they had a batting average of over .400. I actually think that if Ted Williams were born in this era, he would have a great chance to be the best hitter of this generation as well. But there is just no way to know. What we do know is that the talent pool of baseball today includes African Americans and players from all over the world. In Ted Williams era, these players were all excluded from the talent pool. Furthermore, there have been tremendous advances in game play, from relief pitcher usage, to defensive shifts, etc. There is just no question that the overall quality of play is far better today than in the far past.

I believe the same principles apply equally to go. Regarding the talent pool issue, let's first take the premise that if you are living as a peasant in abject poverty, you will not have the resources to pursue a career in go. Little wonder that Korean Go took off in the 90's as economic development in the 70's and 80's created a larger middle class with the resources to allow their children the luxury of devoting time to studying a game. Chinese economic development in the 90's and 00's led to the current boom of Chinese Go that started in the 2010's. Even in a very poor country, there will be a genius child that is the son of tiny elite such as Go Seigen or Cho Hunhyun. But the depth of talent in China and Korea was non-existent back then as the general population was having a hard enough time finding their next meal. With the explosion of China's middle class, I would guess that the talent pool is at least 10x as large as it was during Lee Changho's prime and 100x as large as it was during Cho Chikun's prime.

Next, let us discuss other advances, namely internet go. As Kim Myunghwan has stated on numerous occasions on AGA broadcasts, internet go and online study groups have played a huge role in players getting stronger. Go players have far greater access to quality games and instruction than they did in the past and this has a direct effect on playing strengths.

These facts are not meant to diminish the achievement of players in the past. It is however meant to fully appreciate the achievement of Ke Jie. To say his current run is merely "par for the course" is in my opinion a grave distortion of the what I believe to be the truth - that Ke Jie's run is in terms of pure go playing strength, the greatest achievement in the long history of this great game.

Brooklyn, it's possible that in the future Ke Jie peak will be decreased to less than 3600 since goratings use Whole History Rating.

My personal indicator is how long the number one can maintained his top position. So in Ke Jie case I'll have to wait and see for at least twelve years. Meanwhile the biggest obstacle for the precise ranking is go4go database, especially in Go Seigen era and before.

Among the top players, Ke Jie is 3-4 vs. Park Junghwan, 6-1 against Tuo Jiaxi, 4-1 vs. Mi Yuting, 8-7 vs. Shi Yue (6-3 since 2015), 8-0 vs. Zhou Ruiyang, 10-3 vs. Lee Sedol, 4-2 vs. Lian Xiao, 2-3 vs. Kim Jiseok, 6-6 vs. Chen Yaoye, 6-0 vs. Gu Li. These are based on the go4go data.