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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #21 Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:54 pm 
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Honestly the skill level between the top 50 players is just so close that, it wouldn't be weird to put Iyama or anyone else in any position.

I don't think Iyama definitely deserves to be in the top 10 or 20 or even 30. I think he has about a 50/50 chance vs world no.10, but also a 50/50 chance vs world no.40 or even 50.

The difference caused by different styles probably affects the winrate much more at that level.

One thing Iyama has against him though, is how he's constantly "sandbagging" while other top pros get to play other top pros all the time.

I mean, I encourage you all to do a little experiment. Go play some sandbagging games against people 10-20 ranks lower than you. If you feel bad about sandbagging, go play idiotbot or weakbot on kgs or something. Then play real games again. I'm pretty sure you'll see a noticeable effect on your game; even if you're always trying to play your best (even against idiotbot), your play will somehow become weaker.

Now of course other top Japanese pros are not that weak. Only slightly weaker than international top pros. But then, they're pretty much all Iyama plays, except 1 or 2 matches a year. That's got to have an effect.

Or, we could even see it this way; perhaps Iyama is so talented, that even while constantly playing opponents who are weaker than he is, he can still get to a top pro level, it may be possible that if he participated in international tournaments and constantly played with top Chinese/Korea pros, that he might've become the undisputed no.1 in the world and created a new era of go like Wu Qingyuang and Lee Changho.

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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #22 Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:05 am 
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idontgetit wrote:
Honestly the skill level between the top 50 players is just so close that, it wouldn't be weird to put Iyama or anyone else in any position.

I don't think Iyama definitely deserves to be in the top 10 or 20 or even 30. I think he has about a 50/50 chance vs world no.10, but also a 50/50 chance vs world no.40 or even 50.

The difference caused by different styles probably affects the winrate much more at that level.

One thing Iyama has against him though, is how he's constantly "sandbagging" while other top pros get to play other top pros all the time.

I mean, I encourage you all to do a little experiment. Go play some sandbagging games against people 10-20 ranks lower than you. If you feel bad about sandbagging, go play idiotbot or weakbot on kgs or something. Then play real games again. I'm pretty sure you'll see a noticeable effect on your game; even if you're always trying to play your best (even against idiotbot), your play will somehow become weaker.

Now of course other top Japanese pros are not that weak. Only slightly weaker than international top pros. But then, they're pretty much all Iyama plays, except 1 or 2 matches a year. That's got to have an effect.

Or, we could even see it this way; perhaps Iyama is so talented, that even while constantly playing opponents who are weaker than he is, he can still get to a top pro level, it may be possible that if he participated in international tournaments and constantly played with top Chinese/Korea pros, that he might've become the undisputed no.1 in the world and created a new era of go like Wu Qingyuang and Lee Changho.


Iyama's strength is already trending down. He's down 0-3 against Takao in the 41st Meijin. Can you imagine a world top-5 player losing to Takao 3 games in a row? No disrespect to Takao, who's soon to turn 40, but Iyama's strength is wildly inflated by Goratings.org.

Iyama is like Notre Dame of American college football - perennially overrated.

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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #23 Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:24 am 
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We know that the situation today is very much like it used to be: Japanese players mostly focus on the domestic tournaments. When they meet internationally, they perform in a way that suggests Japanese go is weaker than Baduk or Weiqi but by exactly how much, is very difficult to assess. If the players would consistently meet each other in open tournaments, then we could make a fair assessment of Japanese go with respect to the other countries but we can't. It can be argued that Iyama & co take domestic tournaments more seriously but it can also be argued they shy away from the international encounters.

There are comparable problems in other sports. In football (soccer) there is a world cup for clubs, in which Brazilian and Argentinian clubs perform reasonably against the much richer European clubs (4 wins against 9). One could infer that these clubs are not much weaker but one might also argue that the world club for clubs doesn't mean much to the rich European teams while the South-American clubs have an honour to defend. The Chinese dominate international table tennis but only on rare occasions. Last year they even ignored the world tour finals which became a Japan-Germany affair. Their domestic tournaments mean much more to them. Everybody knows they dominate but exactly by how much? Impossible to know from international encounters with country limits, so that Chinese who are probably are top 10 can't even participate in the best tournaments.

These skewed encounters don't allow for a fair comparison, let alone a reliable ranking.

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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #24 Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:01 pm 
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Kirby wrote:
What is "accurate"? Ability to predict game outcome? Under what conditions? Who is playing white? What are the player's styles? How many games did the players each play last week? Are they in good physical condition? Is it a best-of-five match? How much money is at stake? Do the players have a history between one another?
You're a smart guy, do you really think that people who do ratings have never heard of someone getting sick, or having a particular opponent they're weak against?

I suspect that you could do a decent job answering those questions without my involvement. For one thing, I suspect that they're not that different from the questions that have been asked and answered before on this same topic, but even if you didn't remember them, I bet you could give decent answers on the spot.

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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #25 Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:07 pm 
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hyperpape wrote:
Kirby wrote:
What is "accurate"? Ability to predict game outcome? Under what conditions? Who is playing white? What are the player's styles? How many games did the players each play last week? Are they in good physical condition? Is it a best-of-five match? How much money is at stake? Do the players have a history between one another?
You're a smart guy, do you really think that people who do ratings have never heard of someone getting sick, or having a particular opponent they're weak against?

I suspect that you could do a decent job answering those questions without my involvement. For one thing, I suspect that they're not that different from the questions that have been asked and answered before on this same topic, but even if you didn't remember them, I bet you could give decent answers on the spot.


All I'm saying is that it's just a model- not the same as reality. Maybe it doesn't align with your personal model... What can you expect?

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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #26 Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:27 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #27 Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:21 am 
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Iyama Yuta is now #38 and he's the only Japanese ranked in Top 100.
Many people must have thought that Japanese go in international scene is gone already, which is why there's so much shock when Ichiriki Ryo won against Lee Sedol back in September.
And Iyama Yuta finally has a chance to play internationally in March 2017, the last time he played with non-Japanese pro was in March 2016, that's a full year of domestic games only.

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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #28 Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:47 am 
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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #29 Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:12 am 
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Argh, this automatic logging out is annoying.

Actually, from recent Chinese articles/pro commentary, I gathered that from their perspective, they think that Japan isn't as weak as they have been the past decade anymore. Chinese articles generally think that Japan lacked talent born in the '80s. Cho U was born in 1980, so he's a bit early, while Iyama is 1989, right at the end. Besides, they are basically the only 2 who stood out.

However, there are quite a few up and coming players now like Xu Jiayuan (kyo kagen), Ichiriki Ryo, Yu Zhengqi (Yo Seiki), Shibano Toramaru, etc, and while they're not exactly at the very top yet, they are not like the 80s players, and they still have potential to grow.

Regarding the rankings, I feel that Ke Jie's recent good form is not really reflected in his difference with Park. I'm not sure how much (if at all) stronger Ke Jie is than Park, but at least in the recent rankings, I'd've expected the difference to be a bit bigger.

Also, while I think Shin Jinseo will definitely deserve the spot he's at next year, I'm not sure he is there just quite yet.

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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #30 Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 11:02 am 
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Does Iyama deserve such a low rank? I expected him to be in the top 25, or 30 for sure.

For what is worth, Iyama is ranked 35th by Mamumamu's world ranking.

Do these rankings out of Asia know something we don't?

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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #31 Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 11:23 am 
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There are several interesting contrasts between the Chinese and Korean lists. Huang Yunsong is the biggest one, ranked world #6 by Dr. Taeil, 11th in China by the Chinese ratings, but you can also point to Gu Li (T:28, C:9) and Shi Yue (T:11, C:4) as as having rather different evaluations. Not sure whether that's driven by different game databases, or different algorithms.

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 Post subject: Re: World Ranking(8/16) by Dr Park Taeil
Post #32 Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 11:43 am 
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Uberdude wrote:
<- waits for by78's denigration in eager anticipation....

I think it's counterproductive to incite behavior that one is trying to discourage, even sarcastically.

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