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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #41 Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:02 am 
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John Fairbairn wrote:
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That being said, with Korea fielding their #1, #2, and #3 players, I would say that they are clearly the heavy favorites.

Quote:
Of games in go4go Ke has 3-1 record plus Peng is lower rated so Ke is still heavy favourite

We seem to quite different interpretations here,

In case it wasn't clear, I meant Ke is heavy favourite in the Xinao cup final against Peng Liyao (and therefore end 2017 with 1 or 2 international titles (depending if you count young-only Limin) which doesn't look so bad compared to what he won in 2015/16), not to win the Nongshim cup all by himself.

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #42 Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:56 am 
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Not that he cares, but Ke Jie also achieved his personal high in Goratings ranking this year and looked almost invincible at one point, when Gu Li jokingly said he was "half AlphaGo, half human". He just hasn't necessarily won the right games. To be fair, for the 5 international titles he has won, he could've easily lost to Qiu Jun and Lee Sedol, and as Ke Jie himself admitted, Tuo Jiaxi outplayed him for the better part of their best-of-3 title match, so luck always plays a factor.


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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #43 Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:57 am 
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John Fairbairn wrote:
It seems from the latest server reports that some pros are losing on four stones to a bot. Looks like pros may have got more of their understanding of the game wrong than they thought.

Never trust numbers, I say :)

They already expand the upper limit. I can't remember if Shin Jinseo or who said that with 6 stones handicap he'd bet everything including his life as well. While I can't imagine how he'll lose with that condition in the near future, but the lesson from AlphaGo is just like you said. Never say never!


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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #44 Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:57 pm 
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Well we mustn't forget that in human-against-human games psychology and emotions play a big role. AI doesn't have these issues. The chess grandmaster Emmanuel Lasker was famous for playing the opponent not the board. In go matches the same sort of tactics are used. One player is known to favor the san-ren-sei opening as black so opponents might play it against him. Against an AI such tactics have no effect. In a face to face go game a player feeling herself behind might play moves she knows would likely not be correct but which will complicate the game, hoping the opponent will make a mistake in responding. Do top level AI players complicate the game when they are behind? Of course not, they are never behind against humans :) In chess again the best computer programs are able to defeat top level humans giving material handicaps. If high-ranked go pros are losing go games receiving a four stone handicap, think how much pressure the pro would be under in a six-handicap game. :)

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #45 Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:38 pm 
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John Fairbairn wrote:
It seems from the latest server reports that some pros are losing on four stones to a bot. Looks like pros may have got more of their understanding of the game wrong than they thought.


I don't think any pro lost to FineArt with 4 stones. Those are 9D online accounts, many can be 5-6D in Europe or so, not pros.

At the most recent US Go Congress, Andy Liu 1P from US said that he is losing against FineArt on Fox server on 2 stones consistently, but winning on 3 stones consistently.


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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #46 Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:37 am 
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sorin wrote:
John Fairbairn wrote:
It seems from the latest server reports that some pros are losing on four stones to a bot. Looks like pros may have got more of their understanding of the game wrong than they thought.


I don't think any pro lost to FineArt with 4 stones. Those are 9D online accounts, many can be 5-6D in Europe or so, not pros.

At the most recent US Go Congress, Andy Liu 1P from US said that he is losing against FineArt on Fox server on 2 stones consistently, but winning on 3 stones consistently.


Let's not forget Lee Sedol also beat Western pros including Andy Liu and Catalin Taranu down to 2 stones in the Go9dan promo match, which was abandoned before we got to see if he could win on 3 stones (I think he quite possibly could, given the nature of the wins on 2 stones and no losses). So top human pros can give a fair few stones to bottom human pros (and Andy isn't so near the bottom of human pros, given his performance in Japan, not sure if his strength has changed much in the past few years).

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #47 Posted: Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:36 pm 
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Next set of games starts today. First up is Japan's last hope Iyama Yuta attempting to stop Dang Yifei's 3 game win streak.

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #48 Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 2:23 am 
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Iyama lost.

What's a big mistake... Even I can see the sequence before Dang actually played it.

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #49 Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:00 am 
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Who was winning if white didn't make the magic in the centre? How much would Iyama have to give up to avoid it (173 as extend not block?)? I felt that Iyama tried to play a thick attacking game, but actually he wasn't so thick with bits of bad aji around the place that allowed Dang to rescue straggles of stones. Was there any way to save that kosumi of cutting stones at bottom right by threatening the life of white's group there? Maybe 159 as knight's move from centre (kosumi down right from where he played) instead would mean less centre bad aji, but the side shape is weaker.

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #50 Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:27 am 
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I feel B has more territories, but W was having sente, and B still has some weaknesses. I feel the solid connection at G12 instead of the tiger mouth would be enough.

For the kosumi, I think Iyama's choice to attack and capture the 3 stones in the upper center is bigger, as it was W's potential. If B tried to save the kosumi stones by attacking the lower right group at 115, maybe W could get the lower side in senter, and then reduce the center from the top.

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #51 Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:09 am 
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Uberdude wrote:
Who was winning if white didn't make the magic in the centre?


If Fine Art was to be trusted, black's win rate never went above 50% (of course the AI was using Chinese rule so it favors white), and was hovering around 10% near the end. So it may just be a way of resign by Iyama?

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #52 Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:24 am 
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wolfking wrote:
Uberdude wrote:
Who was winning if white didn't make the magic in the centre?


If Fine Art was to be trusted, black's win rate never went above 50% (of course the AI was using Chinese rule so it favors white), and was hovering around 10% near the end. So it may just be a way of resign by Iyama?


Black did go above 50%, the last move it happened was move 81 (50.1%).

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #53 Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:09 am 
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pookpooi wrote:

Black did go above 50%, the last move it happened was move 81 (50.1%).


You are absolutely right. I went back to check on Fox Go Server and for several moves in early stage and early mid game black was a few percentage above 50%. Move 81 is the last time Fine Art show more than 50%.

Here are a few more black win rates at different times:

move 85 45.1%
move 87 30.3%
move 104 22.5%
move 109 16.5%
move 115 10.8%

Only time after that black went above 20% was when white played the wedge at move 126 (Fine Art suggested play results in a ko), and black win rate was 26%. But it quickly vaporized when black played 129 and gave up the two stones (win rate went down to 8%).

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #54 Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:36 am 
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Next up is Korean wunderkind Shin Jinseo. He just lost a ko that was a bunch of internal points for a threat which was less points but also unsettles a group; let's see how well he can attack it.

Update: Shin lost, so Dang on 5 wins now. Over 11 games only 2 people have won, him and Shin Minjun with 6.

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #55 Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2018 2:47 am 
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An important win for Dang. This helps him to secure a place in the next Nongshim Cup (according to the Chinese selection method used in the past that awards winners)

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #56 Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:17 am 
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Just created some diagrams for my website readers. I copy/paste them here. The capturing race is hopeless for black because white's two nice wedge moves that reduce all black's liberties in that area:
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$W
$$ +---------------------------------------+
$$ | . . . . . . X . . X X . O . O X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . X X O O O . O O O X X . |
$$ | . . X X X O X . X X X X O X O O O X . |
$$ | . X O O O O O O . O O O O X X X X X . |
$$ | . X X O 6 X . O O O X . . . . . . O . |
$$ | . X O O X 5 O O X X X O . X O . O X . |
$$ | . O X X X 3 2 # 1 . X X . X O X X O O |
$$ | O . O X . a 4 # O O . O . X X O O X . |
$$ | X O . O X X X O X . O . O O O O X X . |
$$ | X X X X O O O O . , . . X X O O X X O |
$$ | X O O O . . . . O . . . X O . . O O . |
$$ | . X X O . . . . . . . . X O . O O . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . X X . X X X . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . X X O X . X O . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . O O X O X . X O . . |
$$ | . . . , O . . . O O . O O X O O X . . |
$$ | . X . O . . . O O . . . O X . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X O . . O O O O X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . O . O . O O O . . . . . |
$$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]


Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wm7 :b16: = :w11:
$$ +---------------------------------------+
$$ | . . . . . . X . . X X . O . O X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . X X O O O . O O O X X . |
$$ | . . X X X O X . X X X X O X O O O X . |
$$ | . X O O O O O O . O O O O X X X X X . |
$$ | . X X O X X . O O O X 3 8 5 6 . . O . |
$$ | . X O O X O O O X X X O 2 X O 7 O X . |
$$ | . O X X X O X X O . X X 1 X O X X O O |
$$ | O . O X . . X X O O 9 O 4 X X O O X . |
$$ | X O . O X X X O X . O . O O O O X X . |
$$ | X X X X O O O O . , . . X X O O X X O |
$$ | X O O O . . . . O . . . X O . . O O . |
$$ | . X X O . . . . . . . . X O . O O . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . X X . X X X . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . X X O X . X O . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . O O X O X . X O . . |
$$ | . . . , O . . . O O . O O X O O X . . |
$$ | . X . O . . . O O . . . O X . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X O . . O O O O X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . O . O . O O O . . . . . |
$$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]


So that's the intermediate result. Our kyu level friends can start from this position:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wm7 white to win the capturing race (easily)
$$ +---------------------------------------+
$$ | . . . . . . X . . X X . O . O X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . X X O O O . O O O X X . |
$$ | . . X X X O X . X X X X O X O O O X . |
$$ | . X O O O O O O . O O O O X X X X X . |
$$ | . X X O X X . O O O X O X X X . . O . |
$$ | . X O O X O O O X X X O X X O O O X . |
$$ | . O X X X O X X O O X X X X O X X O O |
$$ | O . O X . . X X O O O O X X X O O X . |
$$ | X O . O X X X O X . O . O O O O X X . |
$$ | X X X X O O O O . , . . X X O O X X O |
$$ | X O O O . . . . O . . . X O . . O O . |
$$ | . X X O . . . . . . . . X O . O O . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . X X . X X X . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . X X O X . X O . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . O O X O X . X O . . |
$$ | . . . , O . . . O O . O O X O O X . . |
$$ | . X . O . . . O O . . . O X . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X O . . O O O O X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . O . O . O O O . . . . . |
$$ +---------------------------------------+[/go]

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #57 Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:32 am 
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Not sure why Shin didn’t just resolve the ko instead of keeping answering white’s ko threat on the upper left. Seems to have a clear lead with no weak groups that way.

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #58 Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:17 am 
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Kim Jiseok won the final ko to win by half a point! Quite some AlphaGo style from Dang in the opening with diagonal 4-4s and then 3-3 invasion, plus the crawl on 2nd line instead of connect at top right. I thought it looked hard for Kim in middlegame, but he squeezed out a win. So now for China to win Ke Jie has to beat Kim Jiseok and Park Junghwan. Ke hasn't played much this year and his form seems not so great...

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #59 Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:17 am 
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Glad to see Kim Jiseok back to share the duty with Park. Shin somehow still lacks of maturity and slipped in important games.

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 Post subject: Re: 19th Nongshim Cup
Post #60 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:11 am 
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Ke Jie, playing white, made a big moyo which Kim invaded. He looked near death to me, but he did too last game and found a way to survive. Not so this time, but he used the aji to get sente profit on the outside and then live pretty big in Ke's corner so it's still a game.

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