Life In 19x19

Win rates for pros
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Author:  John Fairbairn [ Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:27 am ]
Post subject:  Win rates for pros

I noticed Ke Jie at present has a win rate of 69%. That sort of sustained rate has applied to every No. 1 player for the last century almost, for the period when they were in their prime or coming into it (thereafter they tend to slide down to about 60% over a longish period).

As far as I can recall, no-one ever gets as high as 70% - it's always high 60s (I am talking about a sustained rate - at peak times when young they can of course often reach much higher for a while).

Is there something "magical" about that high-60s figure in statistical terms?

Author:  Uberdude [ Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Win rates for pros

Do you mean total pro career win rate? For the last year of games in go4go (might be a bit less than total official matches but probably not much given his high profile now) he is 75-20 (79%), last 2 years 143-44 76%, last 3 years 203-62 (77%). So 3 years of high 70s. Total on go4go is 295-112 which is 72% which is more than your 69% (official Chinese pro stat?) but I presume that's because it doesn't have so many of his earlier games (which would have been in smaller events) when he lost more. All pros will have some backlog of early losses to overcome to push their career stats over 70%. With pros reaching peaks earlier like Ke (but also Lee Changho reached #1 young) probably they have fewer losses to cancel out so could get a higher career average. Also generally pros don't retire and stop generating loses after they peak so pushing down their stats. If you look at go4go stats for Lee Changho up to his last international title in 2007 he is 929-336 (73%) or 76% if you cut off at 2002 which was the kind of the end of his utter dominance, but he's now down to 1219-550 (69%) as he's weaker but still plays.

Author:  John Fairbairn [ Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Win rates for pros

I'm generally referring to win rate in games up to a prime, so including early games. As I said, rates then decline, typically from something like 70% down to 60%.

The figures I saw (on a Chinese site) covered 563 games for Ke Jie (and he has a noticeable bias in winning with White, unlike other plyers who seemed more balanced). I assume this is "so far" from scratch, as GoGoD has about Ke Jie 415 games, from 2008 on.

It might surprise some that Mi Yuting was very close (68% over 576 games), then there was a bit of a gap before a cluster led by Shi Yue on 65%.

Your good point about the inevitable cluster of lost games early in one's career seems significant in principle, but as young players tend to play young players most in their early days (and especially in Japan in the early days), the effect may not be all that large.

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