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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #21 Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:35 pm 
Gosei

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mhlepore wrote:
I would bet if you took two equally matched professionals and offered one pro 3 extra points to have his/her clock cut in half relative to the other player, that pro would deny the request and keep his/her time.

In this thought experiment, are the lengths of the byo-yomi periods cut in half too?

The discussion reminds me that the US Chess Championship experimented for a couple of years with a tiebreaker game where White got 45 minutes and Black got less time but draw odds (a drawn game counted as a win for Black). The players bid time amounts for the right to play Black; the player with the lower bid played Black and started with the amount of time bid. I believe that the winning bids were somewhere in the 20s, which surprised a lot of people for being so low.

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #22 Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:54 pm 
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mhlepore wrote:
- I would bet if you took two equally matched professionals and offered one pro 3 extra points to have his/her clock cut in half relative to the other player, that pro would deny the request and keep his/her time.


I would bet A LOT against you here :-)
I think a Japanese pro would give up 8 out of the 9 hours of thinking for 3 extra points in a top title match.

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #23 Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:20 pm 
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sorin wrote:
mhlepore wrote:
- I would bet if you took two equally matched professionals and offered one pro 3 extra points to have his/her clock cut in half relative to the other player, that pro would deny the request and keep his/her time.


I would bet A LOT against you here :-)
I think a Japanese pro would give up 8 out of the 9 hours of thinking for 3 extra points in a top title match.

That's actually an interesting point. I can't tell how much planning ahead has to be performed to secure that advantage through out the game, but heck, halving your clock time and having to be more careful with yose calculations? Sounds like a tough deal, honestly.

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Post #24 Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:29 pm 
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I wouldn't be surprised if a professional can play almost at his optimal level while having twice less time than his opponent in a slow tournament, because he can think on his opponent's time, and at least count. Playing at an optimal level when both players have little time is more difficult.

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Post #25 Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:33 pm 
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I would think this subject had already been researched and we wouldn't be left to hearsay.

I presume the effect of thinking time (available and/or used) on the quality of a game is real but with diminishing returns. At some point I imagine the added thinking time can even be detrimental because it allows and therefore induces doubt.

What does the university of Seoul have to say about this?

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Post #26 Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:19 pm 
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dfan wrote:
The discussion reminds me that the US Chess Championship experimented for a couple of years with a tiebreaker game where White got 45 minutes and Black got less time but draw odds (a drawn game counted as a win for Black). The players bid time amounts for the right to play Black; the player with the lower bid played Black and started with the amount of time bid. I believe that the winning bids were somewhere in the 20s, which surprised a lot of people for being so low.
Draw odds are enormous at that level, aren’t they?

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #27 Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:50 pm 
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hyperpape wrote:
dfan wrote:
The discussion reminds me that the US Chess Championship experimented for a couple of years with a tiebreaker game where White got 45 minutes and Black got less time but draw odds (a drawn game counted as a win for Black). The players bid time amounts for the right to play Black; the player with the lower bid played Black and started with the amount of time bid. I believe that the winning bids were somewhere in the 20s, which surprised a lot of people for being so low.

Draw odds are enormous at that level, aren’t they?

They are certainly large. I don't presume to know how they compare to a 3 point bonus in go.

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Post #28 Posted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:58 pm 
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How drawish are 45 minute games? One thought that occurred to me is that if 58% of games at that level are draws, and black normally wins 15%, then draw odds could amount to a ~.45 match points/game among 2700 players (got numbers from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-mov ... e_in_chess).

What was Black's winning percentage in pre-komi go? It's not a one-one comparison unless you limit it to games where White and Black were supposed to be of equal strength.

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #29 Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:21 am 
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John Fairbairn wrote:
But if you focus on Korea, many famous tournaments have recently disappeared and the number of events available for pros to play in has worsened, both quantitatively and qualitatively (and financially). If we try to assess Korean events in the round, we can see two patterns. One dominant one is that the time limits are overwhelmingly at the Mickey Mouse level. The other, less pronounced quantitatively but significant in terms of prestige, is that several Korean events are now hosted in Japan or China (even exhibition games!). Furthermore, several Korean stars now focus mainly on not just international events but on playing in China (mainly in the leagues). We have to wonder whether there is some cause and effect, and it seems legitimate also to wonder whether Korean go is being mismanaged.


If you compare the big tree countries by organized events, the Japanese scene seems the most active to me. They seem to have the most big tournaments with elaborate qualification rules. As a downside, I would say the tournaments take too long (several months) to conclude.

The Chinese tournaments seem to finish much quicker (sometimes in a week). But the Chinese also have the leagues, which compensate for the long periods of time without and active tournament.

So if Korea has so much fewer tournaments, how come they have such strong players? Or will the effect be seen in 10-20 years once the current stars retire?

I also think it is a shame that the Japanese are not more competitive in the international events.

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #30 Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:27 am 
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As a downside, I would say the tournaments take too long (several months) to conclude.


Yes. As e.g. in the Judan, they start the preliminaries of (say) term 55 even before the final of Term 54 has been played.

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Post #31 Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:30 pm 
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sorin wrote:
mhlepore wrote:
- I would bet if you took two equally matched professionals and offered one pro 3 extra points to have his/her clock cut in half relative to the other player, that pro would deny the request and keep his/her time.
I would bet A LOT against you here :-)
I think a Japanese pro would give up 8 out of the 9 hours of thinking for 3 extra points in a top title match.

I agree (maybe not the exact numbers). I'd guess the bot experience, which observes roughly similar strength gains for each doubling of processing power, could be at least partially valid for humans as well. So losing the first 4 hours from 8 could amount to similar as the next 2 hours, then the last hour (byo-yomi aside).

Which also hints the difference between very fast time controls, and somewhat fast-ish time controls can be more than expected (because of the log effect), and the difference between the latter and slow controls may be less. Testing all this speculation in time-environmental matches (where players could buy extra points with time) seems possible in go as well.

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Post #32 Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:40 pm 
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With Ing tournaments top pros pay 2 points to get an extra 20 minutes after hours of play. Maybe they just suck at time management and the alternative is losing on time rather than byo-yomi. However I'm sure Ke Jie would take 3 extra points to play with 1.5 hour versus his opponent's 3 as he's a fast player and sometimes only uses that much anyway.

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Post #33 Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:32 pm 
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The value of time in points is likely very different at start and later phases of the game. I think Ing's point penalties are indeed just a last resort, not even aiming to be fair time-bidding system.

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Post #34 Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:43 pm 
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Last night (December 22nd) we had our year-end party for the amateur group that I play in every weekend at the Nihon Ki'in. I asked Sakai Maki 8p about trading points for time. I phrased it as 6 hours versus 1 hour since he has never played in a 2-day game. Six hours used to be the old default for the preliminary tournaments. He said there was clearly a difference but that no one knows how much it is worth since we have no experience playing that way. Hence he did not know how to decide on a value. Initially it would just be everyone's best guess. He refused to give his guess (he was grinning when he refused, clearly realizing that I was trying to pin him down. ;-) )

He also said that compared to main-time the difference in byo-yomi was clear and big. Sixty-second byo-yomi and thirty-second byo-yomi are very different [His emphasis]. This ties with my experience watching a lot of games from Japan's NHK Cup and Ryusei tournament. Many games involved players trying to gain time by making forcing moves as the count approaches 30 seconds only to have their opponents ignore them and completely change the flow of the game. This can be exciting TV but not good Go.

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #35 Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:41 pm 
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ez4u wrote:
He refused to give his guess (he was grinning when he refused, clearly realizing that I was trying to pin him down. ;-) )

Thanks for trying! :-)

ez4u wrote:
He also said that compared to main-time the difference in byo-yomi was clear and big. Sixty-second byo-yomi and thirty-second byo-yomi are very different [His emphasis]. This ties with my experience watching a lot of games from Japan's NHK Cup and Ryusei tournament. Many games involved players trying to gain time by making forcing moves as the count approaches 30 seconds only to have their opponents ignore them and completely change the flow of the game. This can be exciting TV but not good Go.


Very interesting! I wonder now what exactly are the time limits in the current international competitions, I realize that my knowledge is very rudimentary: "couple of hours or so main time, some tens of seconds or so byo-yomi".

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #36 Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:44 pm 
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Uberdude wrote:
With Ing tournaments top pros pay 2 points to get an extra 20 minutes after hours of play. Maybe they just suck at time management and the alternative is losing on time rather than byo-yomi. However I'm sure Ke Jie would take 3 extra points to play with 1.5 hour versus his opponent's 3 as he's a fast player and sometimes only uses that much anyway.


Interesting, I forgot about this...
I agree with moha though, this sort of trading points for time is just like an emergency measure. However, if we had enough data about how often pros specifically made vs avoided the trade, and with what results, we may be able to learn something from it.

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #37 Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:40 am 
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Tuo Jiaxi would have beaten Mi Yuting in the first game of this year's Chanqi cup final had he not had to have paid the time penalty. Mi went on to win the final 2-1. forum/viewtopic.php?p=238177#p238177

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Post #38 Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:13 am 
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In talking about Game 2 of the recent Meijin final, Cho U spoke about time. He said he normally plays quite fast, but as he hadn't been in a title match for a while he decided to pace himself and take more time early on. But this particular game was especially difficult. It was close but there were a couple of positions where he found the combination of reading deeply and evaluating the results were particularly taxing. The result was that he was short of time for the endgame, and since the game went on for 336 moves that was a big part of this game. He missed a way of exploiting a mistake by Iyama and as a result lost by 2.5. But if he had had more time, he felt he might have won by 0.5.

So there's just one case where a single move makes a difference of 3 points through lack of time, and also an indication that pros do think about time management.

Incidentally, this interview revealed that Cho does bouldering as a hobby and as a way to keep fit for go. I hadn't come across this term before, despite doing a fair bit of rock-climbing in my youth. But since it apparently involves climbing without ropes or harnesses, I wonder if that tells us anything about whether Cho is a risk-taker.

One of the two positions Cho found taxing in Game 2 was after White 128 (Cho was Black). He was unsure about the balance between attack and defence in the centre and wondered what AI had to say about it. He didn't reveal that, but maybe some of the bot jockeys here can enlighten us.

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #39 Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:22 am 
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I appreciate all the thoughts on the time vs. points issue.

One thing that makes me think time should be valued more than points in our hypothetical is the large percentage of current pro games that end in resignation. Some resignations are seen after a big fight decides the game, and some resignations are seen toward the end, when the gap is big enough that finishing the game is not obligated. Either way, it seems in a lot of these games that perturbations in komi may not matter that much. I realize counterexamples can be found, but on a general level, that is my thinking.

Also, I think most of us would agree that us folks over 40 would benefit more from extra time than the kiddos. :-)

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 Post subject: Re: What a crying shame!
Post #40 Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:22 am 
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mhlepore wrote:
Either way, it seems in a lot of these games that perturbations in komi may not matter that much.


If we perturb the komi after the fight is over, indeed it doesn't matter :-)
The way I think about it is that many fights occur when one side thinks they are behind (even by 1-2 points) and start complicating the game.
As a parenthesis: current komi seems to be too large so it favors white, but by less than one point, so there is no way to easy fix it.

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