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Who will win?
EGF pros 69%  69%  [ 40 ]
AGA pros 22%  22%  [ 13 ]
Don't know 9%  9%  [ 5 ]
Total votes : 58
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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #21 Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:18 am 
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Uberdude wrote:
First game in a week: Mateusz Surma vs Andy Liu. AGA putting out their big gun first.


In the Surrounding Game documentary, Andy Liu is mentioned as having a goal to win 40 times in a row in fast training games against 9d players on Tygem.

Not sure if he ever achieved that goal, but winning 6 in a row in this match should be relatively easy, just talking numbers-wise :-)

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #22 Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:58 pm 
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sorin wrote:
In the Surrounding Game documentary, Andy Liu is mentioned as having a goal to win 40 times in a row in fast training games against 9d players on Tygem.


Maybe I should watch it again, but as I recall it wasn't clear at what rank he started that 40 game set. There was this implication that if you had a long winning streak, then maybe a top pro would deign to play you. I think AlphaGo master proved that, yes, they will. :D


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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #23 Posted: Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:09 pm 
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Calvin Clark wrote:
sorin wrote:
In the Surrounding Game documentary, Andy Liu is mentioned as having a goal to win 40 times in a row in fast training games against 9d players on Tygem.


Maybe I should watch it again, but as I recall it wasn't clear at what rank he started that 40 game set. There was this implication that if you had a long winning streak, then maybe a top pro would deign to play you. I think AlphaGo master proved that, yes, they will. :D


I think it was purely a personal challenge. It was definitely reported during the time he was fighting to become 1p, so he must have been already 9d Tygem, but he may have challenged himself like that earlier in his career.

Math is definitely against one winning 40 times in a row as long as they play opponents within 2-3 stones strength.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #24 Posted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 4:20 am 
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sorin wrote:
Calvin Clark wrote:
sorin wrote:
In the Surrounding Game documentary, Andy Liu is mentioned as having a goal to win 40 times in a row in fast training games against 9d players on Tygem.


Maybe I should watch it again, but as I recall it wasn't clear at what rank he started that 40 game set. There was this implication that if you had a long winning streak, then maybe a top pro would deign to play you. I think AlphaGo master proved that, yes, they will. :D


I think it was purely a personal challenge. It was definitely reported during the time he was fighting to become 1p, so he must have been already 9d Tygem, but he may have challenged himself like that earlier in his career.

Math is definitely against one winning 40 times in a row as long as they play opponents within 2-3 stones strength.


(edit: managed to somehow not add my comment at all, now added)

If you play enough games then the chances of eventually seeing a winning streak of 40 tends towards certainty. (just by luck if not skill.) Iirc this was slightly similar to Andy Liu's approach.

Winning a set of 6 specific, high pressure games is a different challenge. Not to say he won't have a good go.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #25 Posted: Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:17 pm 
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MikeKyle wrote:
If you play enough games then the chances of eventually seeing a winning streak of 40 tends towards certainty. (just by luck if not skill.)


Against equally strength players, it would take are really large number of games :-)

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #26 Posted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:26 am 
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sorin wrote:
MikeKyle wrote:
If you play enough games then the chances of eventually seeing a winning streak of 40 tends towards certainty. (just by luck if not skill.)


Against equally strength players, it would take are really large number of games :-)

Yes. If winning probability of an individual game is 0.5, then probabliity of winning any given 40 in a row is 0.5^40 = 0.0000000000009. Thus one would have to play about 762 billion games before having at least 50% chance of encountering such a winning streak.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #27 Posted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:00 am 
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If all his opponents are about 2 stones weaker, and if the winning probability against each is about 90%, then you can expect to play about 600-700 games to get a 40-game winning streak.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #28 Posted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:49 pm 
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Mateusz won in classic 'make a complicated mess when losing in endgame and outfight opponent' style.



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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #29 Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:37 am 
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Uberdude wrote:
Mateusz won in classic 'make a complicated mess when losing in endgame and outfight opponent' style.

After seeing the R12-S13-K18 exchange, I'm hoping this game will get me that much closer to appreciate the fact that a match is not over until it is over.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #30 Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:30 am 
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Yes, Mateusz's games often illustrate the benefit of not playing aji keshi and keeping groups without two clearly defined eyes so that if fighting later breaks out nearby you have chances to attack them. This game he was of course fortunate Andy didn't play quite enough honte and a few bad timesujis, but it takes skill to creae positions that allow your opponent ample opportunity to mess up.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #31 Posted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:25 pm 
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Mateusz beat Calvin Sun to make it 2 wins in a row for himself and team EGF. He was doing fairly well throughout but another bad timesuji from the AGA player gifted him an early finish.



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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #32 Posted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:23 pm 
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Here are some stats from go4go on the activity and success of the AGA and EGF pros: total games, games vs Asian pros, wins vs Asian pros respectively.

AGA:
Ryan: 10, 8, 3 (one of which Chen Yaoye)
Eric: 16, 13, 1
Gansheng: 9, 9, 3
Andy: 7, 7, 3
Calvin: 0, 0, 0

EGF:
Ilya: 61, 33, 5
Pavol: 25, 11, 1
Mateusz: 33, 13, 3 (also had wins in Chinese C league not in go4go)
Ali: 43, 16, 1
Artem: 33, 19, 4

US Go Congress games aren't included but some big European events are (but only a few EGC, mostly the Grand Slam events for which there is no US equivalent) which will give the EGF more of the first number and AGA miss out on a few games vs Asian pros studying in US universities, but I think the general picture it paints is fairly reflective of reality.


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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #33 Posted: Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:21 am 
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Nice to see the activity and hard work the EGF pros paying off.

Hopefully they can clean sweep it 5-0 ;)

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #34 Posted: Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:52 am 
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An interview with Mateusz after his 2 wins, his next opponent is Gansheng/William Shi.

https://eurogofed.org/index.html?id=249

And Hajin Lee presents a highlights review of the first game:

https://www.facebook.com/transatlantict ... 920676152/

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #35 Posted: Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:33 pm 
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Yeah in this match we see the benefit, if players getting much practice. Our players in the EGF do more matches in Asia and in Europe there are more big Go events too. When I talked to Stephen Hu, he just recalled the US Go Congress and LA Cotsen Open, he couldn`t think of more big tournaments in the US, maybe he didn´t know about Canada, but I´m not sure, if there is something big in Go.

Also it could be a problem, that the AGA has not so much players. If I remember right, I heard of 2400 player in the AGA or something in that dimension (maybe I misheard it). In Germany alone we have around 2200 players, in the entire EGF it´s much more. And in Germany it´s easier with tournaments and many other nations too, we don´t have so big distances to go.
Even here in Germany, we offer many tournaments with private sleeping places, bringing an sleeping bag and sleeping pad with you, if you play an weekend tournament, cause sometimes you have to travel quite far. But in the AGA the distances are way bigger, it´s more of an challenge, even more with less players and less player hotspots.

ALso an problem could be with young players, who got no driving license, in the US the public transporting system is not as common, as here. In Germany there are more buses, metros, trams and trains, which can be used. It´s not easy to raise talents like that.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #36 Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:16 pm 
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3-0 to Mateusz!


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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #37 Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:53 pm 
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Aram wrote:
Hopefully they can clean sweep it 5-0 ;)
I'd still bet against it. I think Matteusz is the favorite against Eric, but not by an overwhelming amount, and Ryan is probably a little stronger than Andy. So Matteusz has a real chance to run the table, but I think it's less than a 50% chance.

...of course, I really wish I wasn't in the position of having to say "my team" probably won't get swept. Great work by Matteusz.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #38 Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:10 pm 
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Uberdude wrote:
3-0 to Mateusz!


It is time for a hero to save the day next :-)

I wonder what version of LZ was MyungWan using, since during the live comment he said it was giving black 80% winrate when Shi played the ogeima extension on the 5th line on the lower side, while my LZ was preferring white...

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #39 Posted: Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:04 am 
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Oberlappen wrote:
If I remember right, I heard of 2400 player in the AGA or something in that dimension (maybe I misheard it). In Germany alone we have around 2200 players, in the entire EGF it´s much more.


I don't think that number is correct. There is a listing of AGA members here: http://www.usgo.org/all-players-rating

I didn't count, but there are probably more than 10000 members. On the other hand, you are probably right that there are more tournaments in Europe.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF vs AGA pros win-and-continue match
Post #40 Posted: Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:23 am 
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jlt wrote:
There is a listing of AGA members here: http://www.usgo.org/all-players-rating

I didn't count, but there are probably more than 10000 members.


21665, according to my computer.

The differences in population density are huge, however, and that has big implications in everyday life (public transport and infrastructure, for example).

Also, the difference in earnings and prestige between a succesful doctor and a succesful player are much more pronounced in the States than in Russia, I believe.

Then, judging from the list of Western pros who went through Eastern professionalization processes, more Europeans seem to reach for the source than North Americans.

Now, if I may query: is it me or Shi-shodan kept his calm much better than previous players? ER experience, maybe?

Take care.

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