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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #241 Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:05 am 
Oza

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Quote:
She has 25 wins


I don't know where you're getting this figure from, but the Nihon Ki-in figure as of 20 November was 18. I don't think she's played 7 official games since, let alone won 7.

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #242 Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:18 pm 
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Mamumamu's site has her at 22-20, including international games, as of the end of November. But we don't know exactly what games are counted there either! :blackeye:

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #243 Posted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:54 am 
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John Fairbairn wrote:
Quote:
She has 25 wins


I don't know where you're getting this figure from, but the Nihon Ki-in figure as of 20 November was 18. I don't think she's played 7 official games since, let alone won 7.


I got it from this post you made on Nov 20:
Quote:
With this game, which featured a 52-year age difference and a slightly embarrassing 10.5 points winning margin, Sumire reached (according to the Mainichi Shinbun) 25 wins in her quest to reach 2-dan (i.e. 5 games to go). Her next opponent there is Iwamaru Taira.


Can you give me the link for the Nihon Ki-in information on number of wins?

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #244 Posted: Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:52 am 
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I made a point of quoting the Mainichi because I was sceptical. But I'm also unsure about the Nihon Ki-in figures because they do include wins in women's and youth tournaments.

Quote:
Can you give me the link for the Nihon Ki-in information on number of wins?


I'm one of the old generation. I read newspapers, magazines and books. The "link" is in e.g. Go World.

It's many years since I looked into the details of the promotion system, and it may have changed, but as I recall 1-dans get to 2-dan by winning 30 games. However, if no player gets thus promoted in that year, up to two players can get promoted by topping the prize money rankings for that grade. Since, by my reckoning no-one has any chance of getting 30 wins this year, and both Sumire and Terada have far more wins than anyone else. I therefore expect one or both to get promoted on prize-money terms on or around 1 January. Fukuoka Kotaro may be the fly in the ointment there because he's been active in the Chinese League B Division and did reasonably well. That may have bumped his earnings up enough. But, again, does prize money outside official NK events count?

Edit:
I decided to do a bit of online digging, which got me nowhere except for a statement that in 2019 Sumire's promotion-counting games record was 11-4. Since the Nihon Ki-in gave her official record for that year as 17-7 (i.e. including women's events etc) and the NK record for this year (2020) so far is 18-15, we can perhaps guess that her total wins for promotion in 2020 is about 12 or 13.

I tried going through the NK published monthly records but they are defective (no doubt CV played its part). My guess is that the Go World figures are compiled by the magazine and the figures that really count are compiled in the NK back office. But FWIW, I cam up with a total of 22 wins over the two years, with the possibility that a missing Ryusei game that I have and GW doesn't would make 23.

During the early part of this year she averaged about 5 or 6 games a month. So if she scores her usual 50% plus, she'll be 2-dan sometime in the first quarter of 2021 unless the prize-money rules supervene.

(A reminder that I listed the events that count for promotion in an earlier post in this thread.)

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #245 Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2020 7:48 am 
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Here are the promotion rules: https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/rank.html. https://senseis.xmp.net/?NihonKiInNewPromotionSystem has promotion rules too, but it seems inaccurate. It is inaccurate because: 1) they did not list all the tournaments in which wins count (no mention of international tournaments) and 2) they incorrectly state prize money promotion is based on 12 tournaments, when in fact only 7 count. (It seems odd that they didn't use the prize money from all the tournaments in which the wins count).

It looks the wins count only if they are in mixed tournaments open for everybody. So Women-only and NHK don't count. Also, the Chinese league games don't count either, but other international tournaments like Globis Cup do.

I believe the promotion by prize money is made regardless of whether anybody is promoted by wins that year. Also, the prize money promotion is only for the results from top 7 Japanese tournaments. So there should be two new 2 dan this year based on prize money. We'll have to wait another week or to see which ones get the promotion this year.

I reckon it is more likely the 18 wins toward promotion is more accurate, so I will revert to that.

They announced the brackets for Senko 6 women only tournament. She starts in 2nd round of qualifying. See West 4 of https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/senko/006.html.
I believe her opponent in Women Meijin 32 will be Akkiko Tsukuda 5p (佃 亜紀子).

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #246 Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:04 am 
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John Fairbairn wrote:
Sumire [...] listed her rivals.
1. Fukuoka Kotaro-kun, who turns 15 next week and is trailing Sumire in the race to 2-dan. She is now on 18-15 (the target is 30 wins) and she is well ahead of everyone else except Terada Shuta who is on 18-10. But Terada is 23 and twice as old as Sumire, so it's understandable she didn't put him in her list.

She was right to keep an eye on Fukuoka Kotaro. Terada Shuta (23) and Fukuoka Kotaro (15) were promoted to 2 dan using the prize money rule on Jan 8, 2021. So she has some catching up to do (but she is right behind them). I reckon she gets to 3p before these two.

Here are her January 2021 games:
    [1] defeated Akiko Tsukuda 5p (佃 亜紀子, 2741) on Jan 7, 2021 in Female Meijin 32 prelims
    [2] Lost on Jan 7 to Asami Ueno 4p in final prelim game of Female Meijin 32 prelims

Here is a summary of all her tournaments (she is out of tournaments with black names). She is still active in tournaments with red names. I decided to flip the convention since one's attention is drawn to colored text:

Majors tournaments (eligible for prize money rule and promotion by wins):
  • Kisei 46 - She went straight into 2nd round of qualifying, where she will play Ha Youngil (河 英一六段 - 6p, 35 years old, rating 3040, #530). See West block 3 in https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/kisei/046.html.
  • Meijin 46 - eliminated Mar 5, 2020. Meijin 47 should have started in Dec 2020. I think it's delayed because they are still playing the Meijin 46 league
  • Honimbo 77 - eliminated on Dec 3, 2020. Honimbo 78 should start around Oct 2021?.
  • Oza 69 - eliminated in Oct 2020. Oza 70 should start in March 2021
  • Tengen 47 - eliminated Apr 2, 2020. Tengen 48 should start in Apr 2021
  • Gosei 46 - eliminated Mar 26, 2020 by Muramoto Wataru 2p. Gosei 47 should start in Jan 2021
  • Judan 60 - Will play against Masaki Minematsu(峯松 正樹 - 6p) in first round of qualifying C. See Kansai 8 https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/jyudan/060.html

Mixed tournaments counting towards promotion by wins:
  • Ago/Kiryama 27 - eliminated on Feb 24, 2020 by Sakaguci?. Kiryama 28 - should start in Feb 2021
  • Ryusei 30 - Defeated Araki Issei 4P on June 29, 2020 in final of prelim B. Lost to Nakano Shoya 1p in Prelim A. Ryusei 31 should start in April-Jun 2021?
  • Hiroshima 15 (Young Carp). Eliminated in Nov 2020. Hiroshima 16 should start Sept 2021.
  • Okage (Thanks Cup) 11 - eliminated on Apr 6, 2020 by Xie Yimmin. Okage 12 should start in March 2021
  • SGW Nakajima 3 - did not participate? SGW 4 should start in Aug 2021
  • Globis Cup 8 should start Jan 2021

Women-only or other tournaments not counting for promotion:
  • Shinjin (King of New Stars) 46 - eliminated in Nov 16, 2020. Shinjin 47 should start in Nov 2021.
  • Okan (Crown) Cup[/b] - Not eligible (seems to be for Nagoya branch only).
  • Kansai Go open 1: eliminated in Nov 2020 in the semifinal of class C (this was in main tournament). Kansai Open 2 might start Sept 2021 (but she might not be eligible to play anymore).
  • Wakatake 5: Lost to Hiroki Muramatsu 6p in first round on Nov 29, 2020. Her opponent eventually ended up in 3rd place. It seems to be Kansai only, so she will probably not play in it next year.
  • Female Honimbo 40: Will play Saeka Iwata 1p in 1st qualifying. See Kansai 7 of https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/fhoninbo/040.html
  • Female Meijin 32: defeated Akiko Tsukuda 5p (2741) on Jan 7, 2021 but lost to Ueno Asami in last qualifying game on the same day. Female Meijin 33 should start in Nov 2021?
  • Female Aizu 8: Won 1st qualifying game vs Chiharu Miyamoto 1p on Dec 17. Will play Fumiko Sakakibara 6p next. See West block 3 of https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/aidu/008.html
  • Female Kisei 24 - Lost in 2nd round of main tournament to Aoki Kikuyo 8p on Oct 26. Kisei 25 should start July 2021.
  • Female Senko/Saikyo 6: She starts in 2nd round of qualifying. See West 4 of https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/senko/006.html

My calculations show her results to be as follows:
In 2021: 1-1
In 2020: 23-18
Overall: 41-27
Promotion to 2p: 26 wins (only 4 to go)

I went over the last 2 years' results to calculate her promotion wins. Here is the breakdown (as you can see, she tends to win at least once in every tournament):
  • Kisei 45: 3 wins
  • Meijin 46: 2 wins
  • Honimbo 76: 3 wins
  • Honimbo 77: 1 win
  • Oza 69: 3 wins
  • Gosei 46: 1 win
  • Judan 59: 3 wins
  • Ryusei 29: 2 wins
  • Ryusei 30: 1 win
  • Hiroshima 14: 1 win
  • Hiroshima 15: 3 wins
  • Okage 11: 2 wins
  • Globis 7: 1 win

So it turns out Mainichi Shinbun did their homework better than Nihon Ki-in.

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #247 Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:42 am 
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Sumire won on Jan 18 (Female Aizu) and Jan 21 (Judan) and I believe she is now only 3 games from 2p promotion.
She also won on Jan 25 in Female Honimbo 40.

Here are her January 2021 games:
    [1] Won on Jan 7 vs Akiko Tsukuda 5p (佃 亜紀子, 2741) in Female Meijin 32 prelims
    [2] Lost on Jan 7 to Asami Ueno 4p in final prelim game of Female Meijin 32 prelims
    [3] Won on Jan 18 vs Fumiko Sakakibara 6p in Female Aizu 8 prelims.
    [4] Won on Jan 21 vs Minematsu Matsaki 6p in Judan 60 prelims. Big win, counts for promotion by wins and prize money.
    [5] Won on Jan 25 vs Saeka Iwata 1p in Female Honimbo 40 prelims.

Here is a summary of all her tournaments (she is out of tournaments with black names). She is still active in tournaments with red names. I decided to flip the convention since one's attention is drawn to colored text:

Majors tournaments (eligible for prize money rule and promotion by wins):
  • Kisei 46 - She went straight into 2nd round of qualifying, where she will play Ha Youngil (河 英一六段 - 6p, 35 years old, rating 3040, #530). See West block 3 in https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/kisei/046.html.
  • Meijin 46 - eliminated Mar 5, 2020. Meijin 47 should have started in Dec 2020. I think it's delayed because they are still playing the Meijin 46 league
  • Honimbo 77 - eliminated on Dec 3, 2020. Honimbo 78 should start around Oct 2021?.
  • Oza 69 - eliminated in Oct 2020. Oza 70 should start in March 2021
  • Tengen 47 - eliminated Apr 2, 2020. Tengen 48 should start in Apr 2021
  • Gosei 47 - will play Rafif Shidqi Fitrah (フィトラRS, 1p, 18 yrs) in first round of qualifying, who just became a pro through the special (easier) qualification path for foreigners. This might be his first game? She's in Tokyo 4.
  • Judan 60 - defeated Minematsu Matsaki (6p, 2698, 57yr old) in first round of qualifying C on Jan 21, 2021. Kansai/Chubu frame 8 https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/jyudan/060.html

Mixed tournaments counting towards promotion by wins:
  • Kiryama 28 - Will play Yasufumi Tahara (7p, 46yrs, 2714, #1000) in her 1st preliminary game.
  • Ryusei 30 - Defeated Araki Issei 4P on June 29, 2020 in final of prelim B. Lost to Nakano Shoya 1p in Prelim A. Ryusei 31 should start in April-Jun 2021?
  • Hiroshima 15 (Young Carp). Eliminated in Nov 2020. Hiroshima 16 should start Sept 2021.
  • Okage (Thanks Cup) 11 - eliminated on Apr 6, 2020 by Xie Yimmin. Okage 12 should start in March 2021
  • SGW Nakajima 3 - did not participate? SGW 4 should start in Aug 2021
  • Globis Cup 8 should start Jan 2021

Women-only or other tournaments not counting for promotion:
  • Shinjin (King of New Stars) 46 - eliminated in Nov 16, 2020. Shinjin 47 should start in Nov 2021.
  • Okan (Crown) Cup - Not eligible (seems to be for Nagoya branch only).
  • Kansai Go open 1: eliminated in Nov 2020 in the semifinal of class C (this was in main tournament). Kansai Open 2 might start Sept 2021 (but she might not be eligible to play anymore).
  • Wakatake 5: Lost to Hiroki Muramatsu 6p in first round on Nov 29, 2020. Her opponent eventually ended up in 3rd place. It seems to be Kansai only, so she will probably not play in it next year.
  • Female Honimbo 40: Defeated Saeka Iwata 1p in 1st qualifying on Jan 25, 2021. Her next opponent is Takao Mari (髙雄 茉莉, 1p, 19 yrs - became pro in 2019 through special recruiting as well). See Kansai 7 of https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/fhoninbo/040.html
  • Female Meijin 32: defeated Akiko Tsukuda 5p (2741) on Jan 7, 2021 but lost to Ueno Asami in last qualifying game on the same day. Female Meijin 33 should start in Nov 2021?
  • Female Aizu 8: Won 1st qualifying game vs Chiharu Miyamoto 1p on Dec 17 and 2nd vs Fumiko Sakakibara 6p on Jan 18, 2021. Will play Akane Tatsuni (辰己 茜, 3p, 38yrs) next. See West block 3 of https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/aidu/008.html
  • Female Kisei 24 - Lost in 2nd round of main tournament to Aoki Kikuyo 8p on Oct 26. Kisei 25 should start July 2021.
  • Female Senko/Saikyo 6: She starts in 2nd round of qualifying. See West 4 of https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/match/senko/006.html

My calculations show her results to be as follows:
In 2021: 4-1
In 2020: 23-18
Overall: 44-27
Promotion to 2p: 27 wins (only 3 to go)

I went over the last 2 years' results to calculate her promotion wins. Here is the breakdown (as you can see, she tends to win at least once in every tournament):
  • Kisei 45: 3 wins
  • Meijin 46: 2 wins
  • Honimbo 76: 3 wins
  • Honimbo 77: 1 win
  • Oza 69: 3 wins
  • Gosei 46: 1 win
  • Judan 59: 3 wins
  • Judan 60: 1 win (ongoing)
  • Ryusei 29: 2 wins
  • Ryusei 30: 1 win
  • Hiroshima 14: 1 win
  • Hiroshima 15: 3 wins
  • Okage 11: 2 wins
  • Globis 7: 1 win

Edits - on Jan 30, 2021 with win in Female Honimbo 40
- On Feb 13, 2021 with Ago/Kiryama 28 matchup


Last edited by silviu22 on Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:59 am, edited 2 times in total.

This post by silviu22 was liked by: Ferran
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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #248 Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:36 am 
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Sumire defeated Ha Youngil (6p) on Feb 4th in Kisei 46 prelims.

Her 2021 results: 5-1
Promotion to 2p: 28 wins (needs :w2: more)
Her rating: 2916, #750

Will play TAJIMA, Shingo (6p, 37yrs, 2879, #805) in the next Kisei 46 prelims. He's the pupil of Nakamura Shinya, Sumire's father!
Will also play Yasufumi Tahara (7p, 46yrs, 2714, #1000) in Kiryama 28 prelims.

Her rating is higher than both of them, so she might be a slight favorite?

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 Post subject: Re: Following Nakamura Sumire
Post #249 Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:15 am 
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Sumire won on Feb 11 vs Akane Tatsuni 3p in Female Aizu 8 qualifying. Will play Wang Jing Yi (王 景怡, 3p, 35yrs) in last qualifying game.

She also won on Feb 18 vs Takao Mari 1p in Female Honimbo 40 qualifying and make it to the main tournament.

Note that both opponents had a lower rating than her.

2021 results: 7-1
Promotion to 2p: 28 wins (needs :w2: more)
Her rating: 2936, #722

I have a feeling that once gotoeveryone announces the win stats for 2021 you will see Sumire's name in that list, since 7-1 is pretty good :D .

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