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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #101 Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:56 am 
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Shin Jinseo's rating (2830) is now more than 100 points more than Ke Jie's (2727) after he Shin made Chunlan Cup's final and Ke Jie's loss to Tang Weixing in the semifinal. But I'm still not convinced Shin is stronger than Ke Jie.

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #102 Posted: Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:51 pm 
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You need to have extremely strong lack of faith in WHR rating system to have doubts that Shin Jinseo is stronger than Ke Jie. But if so, why you follow it so closely ? ;)

Ok so lets see. Currently Shin Jinseo rating is 3830 while Ke Jie is 3727. This is difference of 103 points. But that does not say much unless you know how to interpret that into win chance of WHR system (and thats not same as real winning probability btw). But 103 points is less than 3% of difference(2,68% to be a little bit more precise). If WHR rating would work same as chess ELO (well, i know it does not, but lets assume for a while) - so lets take Kasparoc highest ELO which is 2851 i think.Lets substract 2,7% from it - it makes 2774 (about). For chess its significant difference, but for sure not domination. Weaker player might in few games do well against higher ranked one (although ofc, if they would play 40 games match, higher ranked should win more). Btw, what was Kramink rating when he beat Kasparov in WC match?

OK so lets see it from another point. Lets see year by year how Shin Jinseo was doing against Ke Jie:
2014 - 1-1
2015 - no games
2016 - no games
2017 - 1-1
2018 - 0-2
2019 - 1-3
2020 - 1-3

Total - 4-10

So it does not look good for Shin Jinseo. But that was only 14 games. And thats only games between two of them. If we would add Park Junghwan into account, then it would start to look completely different. And most important is that Shin Jinseo from 2021 looks much stronger than Shin from each year before. Steady constant rise. Opposite, Ke Jie looks like he is not improving much.

Shin Jinseo is doing awesomely good against pretty much all top players, except Ke Jie. That sometimes happen. When Robert Fisher was about to play his match of century against Boris Spassky, his personal record against him was very poor (no wins, few draws), but his ELO rating was 125 points higher (or sth like that, dont remember exactly). But after match, even if we count this stupid default, his record against Spassky was not bad anymore.

Silviu, have some faith in WHR! If you dont, then calculate ELO, should be pretty similar difference. I dont have doubts that Shin Jinseo is stronger. Wish they play some long match like Gu Li vs Lee Sedol, or better Shusaku vs Yuzo!

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #103 Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:51 am 
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AloneAgainstAll wrote:
Currently Shin Jinseo rating is 3830 while Ke Jie is 3727. This is difference of 103 points. But that does not say much unless you know how to interpret that into win chance of WHR system (and thats not same as real winning probability btw). But 103 points is less than 3% of difference (2,68% to be a little bit more precise).

Comparing rating differences to ratings isn't meaningful for systems like Elo and WHR. They are effectively logarithms of raw skill ratings, so only the difference matters. A difference of 103 points corresponds to some particular (predicted) probability of winning. It doesn't matter whether the two players involved are 3830 and 3727 or 1830 and 1727. In fact the baseline of the rating system (how good a player with a rating of 0 is) is completely arbitrary.

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #104 Posted: Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:52 pm 
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Part of my post was joke but it seems it was poor one, sorry for that. I should wait till Shin Jinseo advantage will be same as Fischer over Spassky (125 points, so just a 22 points more) before Match of Century and then use that argument.


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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #105 Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:01 am 
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Iirc the expected win probability for goratings WHR for a rating difference is exactly the same as regular chess Elo, i.e. the scales are the same relative density even though offset so can't compare absolute numbers between them and the calculation model is different. https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html ... ting2=3727 says Shin Vs Ke 103 apart is 64-36.

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #106 Posted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:04 am 
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AloneAgainstAll wrote:
You need to have extremely strong lack of faith in WHR rating system to have doubts that Shin Jinseo is stronger than Ke Jie. But if so, why you follow it so closely ? ;)


I believe Shin Jinseo has a bit of inferiority complex vs Ke Jie. I suspect he starts every other match expecting to win, but that he is anxious/unsure whenever he plays Ke Jie. He used to have the same problem with Park Junghwan, but he overcame that.

I suspect that if he played a blind game vs Ke Jie without knowing who the opponent is, Shin Jinseo might win more. I also believe that if they played more often (like in that 10 game match I saw someone mention) he would get over this complex. But they play so seldom that he can't quite get over his mental block.

And the reason I watch him so closely is because I am looking forward to getting confirmation from head-to-head results that Shin has really passed Ke Jie.

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #107 Posted: Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:10 am 
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Strength at go is not a simple attribute of a person that can be accurately represented by a total ordering, as rating numbers attempt to do so. It's perfectly possible for A to generally beat B, B to generally beat C, but C to generally beat A. Shin is better at beating the world top 5-50 players more often than Ke Jie, but Ke beats Shin in head-to-head. The same used to be true of Shin and Park, but Shin has now figured out how to beat Park. Who is stronger just depends what you mean by stronger.

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #108 Posted: Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:36 am 
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Quote:
Who is stronger just depends what you mean by stronger.


Yes, but it can also depend on what you mean by who.

The Chinese have developed a system, good in its way, for providing work as coaches for once-top players to be available to help out Chinese players in international competitions. I imagine this includes analysing the games of foreign opponents. I have no idea whether Ke Jie avails himself of such help, but at least it's available and for the Koreans and Japanese it is not available. They seem instead to provide support for veteran players through restricted tournaments or through keeping the number of players down.

I wonder, too, whether the relative decline in prestige of Korean events has fed through into their title matches feeling less intense. There's a difference between performing at La Scala and the Turin Opera House that can only be overcome by experience.

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #109 Posted: Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:18 pm 
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Uberdude, isnt Shin better are beatin all top 3-100 than Ke Jie? Anyway, 14 games is not significant amount of games to judge (if match between Shusaku and Yuzo would last only 14 games he would not beat him down to sen-ai-sen ;) ), and looking at Shin Jinseo results its imho obvious that he was improving in all those years when he met Ke Jie, so past games between them should be considered in same manner as we consider Shusaku games from 1844.

If someone is dominating all top players in rating system, and system is good, he is strongest. Ofc, there is possibility that there is somoene who has positive score against him. Was Fischer dominating player in 1972? Sure, no doubt about that. But he had minus score against at least 2 players. Shin Jinseo has minus score only against Ke Jie afaik.

There is just one thing i am sad about - there is possibility that they will not play too many games against each other. The only hope is that someone wealthy decide to sponsor match like in old good times (we are still grateful for all ppl like Akai Gorosaku!). But as a pesimist (who thinks of himself as rather realist) i think thats not gonna happen.

You wanna hear sth funny? There is long debate who was stronger Shuwa or Shusaku. Ofc that depends on year, Shusaku from 1844 is a bit different guy that Shusaku from 1860, and they could probably never play match in peak time (Shusaku peak was probably around year of his death, while Shuwa probably around 1850) but who should you bet if they would play a challenge match on even terms? I would put my money on Shusaku. Why? I took a look at games of Shuwa and Shusaku against Tempo Top Four, and results are that Shusaku did better than Shuwa against them. I would say significally better. Thats ofc not final argument, and 100% proof, but imho a strong hint.

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #110 Posted: Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:49 am 
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Shin Jinseo gave an extensive interview after the Nongship Cup final victory. Among other things, interesting remarks on Ke Jie and Park Junghwan, and on how he studies recently.

https://www.cyberoro.com/news/news_view.oro?num=527534



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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #111 Posted: Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:26 pm 
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Shin had 7 games matches against Park Junghwan and won all games last year. This does not mean he will win always against Park.
Shin will also play 10 games matches against Ke 1 game/month starting probably next month. This will resolve all dispute.
Shin is stronger than Ke definitely at this moment. Shin's nick name is Shin AI.

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #112 Posted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:03 am 
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This page http://www.eweiqi.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=228&id=32941 seems to talk about a 10-match game between China and Korea. The google translation for Chinese web sites is not great, so I don't really know what they're saying.

Tang Weixing seems to be playing against Shin Jinseo in a best-of-2 format starting on Apr 7th. The article says the result is currently 4-4. Does anybody know when were the previous games and what were the results?

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 Post subject: Re: Shin Jinseo
Post #113 Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:41 am 
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Shin Jinseo won the Chunlan Cup 13 final vs Tang Weixing 2-0. :clap: I believe one of their games is in this youtube video.

A bit anticlimactic since the Chunlan Cup semifinals were held 8 months earlier in January 2021.

This reddit page has some pictures.

So now he has 2 or 3 international tournament wins, depending on how you count:
  • Asian TV Cup 31 (Jun 2019)
  • LG Cup 24 (Feb 2020)
  • Chunlan Cup 13 (Sep 2021)

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