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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #61 Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:17 pm 
Tengen

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Interesting find Bill. The obvious interpretation to me of chucking more win% on moves with more time is that these are harder moves and despite spending the extra time the chosen play was quite some way off Leela's best move. If less time had been taken maybe it would have been even worse (or maybe better, sometimes it is possible to overthink and come up with a worse move than your intuition). The next step would be doing a similar analysis with another bot. If a similar pattern is found then that is saying the two bots agree on which moves were good and which were bad, so the "spending more time on hard moves and still not playing so well" hypothesis is strengthened. I'm not sure what it means if such a correlation is not found. The absolute win% differences of another bot are not so important, what Leela calls a 2% mistake LeelaElf might call a 10% because is stronger and has more extreme opinions, it's the relative difference between fast and slow moves that is.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #62 Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:44 pm 
Judan

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Uberdude wrote:
Interesting find Bill. The obvious interpretation to me of chucking more win% on moves with more time is that these are harder moves and despite spending the extra time the chosen play was quite some way off Leela's best move.


Carlo took the most time on move 37, almost 4 min. Do we really think that Carlo, if cheating, let Leela run that long because he thought the move was difficult, and then did not choose Leela's best move over one that Leela (probably) said was decidedly inferior? If living in the corner in gote was Leela's best choice after 4 min., then maybe the eye-stealing tesuji, which Cieply's Leela came up with both times after more than 200K rollouts, was a mistake, as was Leela's assessment, in analysis, that Leela's later choice chucked 3.08% or 2.54%, depending on the analysis run. Of course, that is possible, as is the possibility that Leela simply overthought the position. ;) I suppose that it is possible for a top bot to overthink, but that's not the way to bet. That still leaves the question in my mind, if cheating, why did Carlo let Leela run that long? For instance, if he was running Ales's Leela, it would have told him that living immediately in the corner would have turned a likely win into a likely loss, and Bojanic's Leela would have told him the same thing, but also would have said that his play would have lost 7% pts. :shock:


Quote:
The next step would be doing a similar analysis with another bot.


Yes! :D And doing it as I suggest, by making both Carlo's play and the play suggested by the bot, and comparing those results.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #63 Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:51 pm 
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Bill Spight wrote:
Carlo took the most time on move 37, almost 4 min. Do we really think that Carlo, if cheating, let Leela run that long because he thought the move was difficult, and then did not choose Leela's best move over one that Leela (probably) said was decidedly inferior? If living in the corner in gote was Leela's best choice after 4 min., then maybe the eye-stealing tesuji, which Cieply's Leela came up with both times after more than 200K rollouts, was a mistake, as was Leela's assessment, in analysis, that Leela's later choice chucked 3.08% or 2.54%, depending on the analysis run. Of course, that is possible, as is the possibility that Leela simply overthought the position. ;)

Bill,
you forgot one important thing - Leela is not good in L&D, as shown in game from qualification that was also analyzed.
It made terrible mistake, and it took Metta long time to recover.

Long time for thinking on this move could be very easily explained - Metta played it, he was not confident in Leela after previous mistake.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #64 Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:31 am 
Judan

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Bojanic wrote:
Bill Spight wrote:
Carlo took the most time on move 37, almost 4 min. Do we really think that Carlo, if cheating, let Leela run that long because he thought the move was difficult, and then did not choose Leela's best move over one that Leela (probably) said was decidedly inferior? If living in the corner in gote was Leela's best choice after 4 min., then maybe the eye-stealing tesuji, which Cieply's Leela came up with both times after more than 200K rollouts, was a mistake, as was Leela's assessment, in analysis, that Leela's later choice chucked 3.08% or 2.54%, depending on the analysis run. Of course, that is possible, as is the possibility that Leela simply overthought the position. ;)

Bill,
you forgot one important thing - Leela is not good in L&D, as shown in game from qualification that was also analyzed.
It made terrible mistake, and it took Metta long time to recover.

Long time for thinking on this move could be very easily explained - Metta played it, he was not confident in Leela after previous mistake.


Actually, you are agreeing with me. It is unlikely that Metta would take a long time on :b37: if he were going to use Leela to decide on which move to play, because Leela is bad at life and death questions. So he did his own thinking for this play. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #65 Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:10 pm 
Judan

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I have applied the results of Ales Cieply's new and improved Leela 11 run to the positions in the note, viewtopic.php?p=233833#p233833 and the following note. :)

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #66 Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:46 pm 
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Jan.van.Rongen wrote:
2. The time taken to move contains a wealth of information that has not been used in a thorough analysis. In the Italian appeal only the weaknesses of the original "98% method" were shown, but they failed to provide additional evidence that goes against the allegation of cheating. A statistical analysus can show that both players speeded up, resp. slowed down in the same periods: i.e. they could both experience the same situations as difficult or easy. This is IMO strong evidence of not cheating, because it is very difficult to simulate that behaviour.
.


This idea interested me, so I had a really quick look at this in excel, so quick that I may have messed up.
If anyone is genuinely interested in the data I suggest they check it.
Column T is correlation on time spent by Black on Move N and by White on Move N+1.
Column T is correlation on time spent by Black on Move N and Move N+2 and by White on Move N+1 and Move N+3.
No idea if the pattern is normal!

Code:
Correlation   T   T+
All   0.190163358   0.645131427
10 to 25   -0.04818757   0.689699683
26 to 40   0.292364124   0.228355808
41 to 55   0.618649288   0.36956237
56 to 70   0.383386508   0.736804967
70 to end   0.08748908   0.671886045

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