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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #21 Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:21 pm 
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AlesCieply wrote:

Maybe because Carlo used Leela and not the AQ that came out in March 2018? According to Leela there are not so big jumps over those 40 moves, so Carlo could not have realized that his winrate goes up and down that much. He might also not used Leela for all his moves.


AQ was first released on 17 Semptember 2017, second release 15 October 2017, third release 22 January 2018.

I think it was already super strong since the 1st release.

Maybe you are confusing with the android version of AQ. That is more recent, 2 months ago.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #22 Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:54 pm 
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bugsti wrote:
Bojanic wrote:
Analysis window of Leela.
Please note that on bottom bar before W50 was played you can see L17 suggestion almost immediately.
Attachment:
Move50.jpg

Therefore, black had enough time, and your "firm evidence" is wrong.


My Leela 0.11 suggests L17 as third choice after M17 (1st) and E13 (2nd).

Is there any chance that Leela 0.11 has some hardware optimization? If I am right its code is not open source.


Aren't the moves shown possible moves for White, not Black?

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #23 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:41 am 
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Bill Spight wrote:
Aren't the moves shown possible moves for White, not Black?

With shades of red are marked possible moves for white.
On bottom bar, on left, you can see sequence of moves for best suggestion:
Nodes... Win.... PV: G1, L17, J14, J11...


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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #24 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:00 am 
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Jan.van.Rongen wrote:
Bojanic wrote:
Analysis window of Leela.
Please note that on bottom bar before W50 was played you can see L17 suggestion almost immediately.
...


Your "analysis window" is not an analysis window that a cheater would have used because it uses "no ponder". And (2) 3000- someting evaluation that your window shows is nothing on the GTX 960M that Carlos has. That's a fraction of a second on that machine and then it immediately continues to better alternatives.

This window is exactly what cheater could use.
In Leela, open empty SGF file. You can put or remove moves at your will and analyze them.
It is better option than to simply play with Leela, since it gives you more liberty for analysis and to play own moves.

And more important:
Quote:
the GTX 960M that Carlos has

Italian team has OFFICIALLY sent info on configuration Metta used to PGETC enquiry, and stated it is capable of 100k variations in 30seconds.
Now, since you obviously have info that Metta has stronger machine and that he used it, would you be so kind to forward this information to Ales Cieply?
To remind you, your information means that Italian team either lied or withheld information of this to Inquiry, which would be second time.

Jan.van.Rongen wrote:
Then about my AQ diagram

Bojanic wrote:
...
And this is the diagram of game Metta-Ben David in Leela 0.11, which shows remarkably small differences.


No it does not. In the AQ evalaution Black gains a plus after white 70, gains more and then gives it away again. About 5% gain is left. In your diagram, the Leela evaluation it is still at 15% at that point.

Remarkably small differences to Leela's play, not to AQ.
Of course it will show bigger differences in other program.

PS could you put here link to AQ program?
It would be good idea to analyze other games with it.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #25 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:32 am 
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Jan.van.Rongen wrote:
I said that "It is an error to use Leela 0.11 to evaluate a situation when you investigate cheating with the same program because that will easily lead to circular reasoning." It seems you just dont understand that or don't read carefully enough. I was mentioning evaluation and that has nothing to do with the case.


When you say evaluate, what do you mean exactly? Are you talking only about judging who is ahead, or only about what the correct moves to play next are, or are you talking about both, or are you talking about something else?

I still think it would be nice to have a supercheater program, which takes your move, checks it against the recommendations of N bots, returns a goodness metric for your move, and suggest alternatives.
Example
Code:
So far you cheated 3 times in 67 moves
SuperCheater rated K10 at 0.8, black winrate is 0.48
AQ suggests L11
Leela 0.11 suggests F3
Leela 0.10 suggest F3
Pachi suggests P4

I mean, this is really going to f--k up life for the cheating detectors.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #26 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:39 am 
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Javaness,
it can not be done automatically.
I will put here game which looks positive to Leela (same deviations histogram), but on the second look...

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #27 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:45 am 
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bugsti wrote:
AlesCieply wrote:

Maybe because Carlo used Leela and not the AQ that came out in March 2018? According to Leela there are not so big jumps over those 40 moves, so Carlo could not have realized that his winrate goes up and down that much. He might also not used Leela for all his moves.


AQ was first released on 17 Semptember 2017, second release 15 October 2017, third release 22 January 2018.

Thanks for the additional information. I am really not familiar with AQ, must have messed up somehow with the release date. I only noted JanvanRongen tags the diagram he posted as made in April this year, so I assumed the latest AQ version. Anyway, my point stands. As far as Carlo is using Leela he does not know that his winrate goes up and down that much over those 40 moves. There is up and down seen in the Leela analysis of the game I presented as a part of my New evidence report but not that drastic as AQ suggests. However, it is worth noticing that even my Leela immediately realizes that move 70 was a mistake (about 4%), in a reasonable agreement with the 5% observed in the AQ graph.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #28 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:02 am 
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Bojanic wrote:
Now, since you obviously have info that Metta has stronger machine and that he used it, would you be so kind to forward this information to Ales Cieply?

Ehm, I am no longer involved with EGF/PGETC dealings concerning the CM case. As far as I know, it was not re-opened despite my report. And I also feel too biased now so I already informed EGF that I want to remove myself from judging it provided it is re-opened and reaches the appeals committee again.

Concerning the computer Carlo used in his PGETC games we only know what we were told. It does not necessarily mean that Carlo really used it. He could have stayed longer at work and use a stronger PC there, only he knows.


Last edited by AlesCieply on Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #29 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:03 am 
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Bojanic wrote:
Javaness,
it can not be done automatically.
I will put here game which looks positive to Leela (same deviations histogram), but on the second look...


Of course you need several computers in communication with each other for using multiple bots, but you can make a simple version with just 1 bot. It's off-topic here :)
On topic - here is AQ https://github.com/ymgaq/AQ
There were other choices, like Ray (?) https://github.com/zakki/Ray

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #30 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:14 am 
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bugsti wrote:
As explained by someone here or in other threads, they fill a complain against that particular game beacuse that was the game with the most similarity rate according to a measure took by some self-called "experts". So maybe it was just an excuse for presenting a formal appeal by one of the team captain.

As far as I remember the game was identified because an Israeli teammate looked at the game with Leela and observed almost 100% matching of CM's moves. It should be noted the game was played 1 day later than the other 3 games and its result had no bearing on the match outcome as the IL team was winning 3-0 by then. Thus, even if this one game was forfeited the match result would not change. The IL team was definitely not looking for an excuse to present a formal complaint.


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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #31 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:19 am 
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AlesCieply wrote:
As far as I remember the game was identified because an Israeli teammate looked at the game with Leela and observed almost 100% matching of CM's moves.


That is so only for a certain range of plays, and for matching one of the top three choices. That smacks of fitting the theory to the data.
Edit: And also choosing the data to fit to the theory.

Not that it does not raise suspicions, but that's all.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #32 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:13 am 
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AlesCieply wrote:
bugsti wrote:
As explained by someone here or in other threads, they fill a complain against that particular game beacuse that was the game with the most similarity rate according to a measure took by some self-called "experts". So maybe it was just an excuse for presenting a formal appeal by one of the team captain.

As far as I remember the game was identified because an Israeli teammate looked at the game with Leela and observed almost 100% matching of CM's moves. It should be noted the game was played 1 day later than the other 3 games and its result had no bearing on the match outcome as the IL team was winning 3-0 by then. Thus, even if this one game was forfeited the match result would not change. The IL team was definitely not looking for an excuse to present a formal complaint.


I think, if I remember well, that at the time protest, Israel was second to last in the PGETC tournament, so they could get big benefit from an Italian team disqualification.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #33 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:28 am 
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MircoF wrote:
I think, if I remember well, that at the time protest, Israel was second to last in the PGETC tournament, so they could get big benefit from an Italian team disqualification.


The fact that I disagree with the original verdict does not mean that I think that the Israeli team should not have lodged a complaint. The had reason to suspect Metta of cheating. As long as that is so, other motives they may have had are irrelevant.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #34 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:42 am 
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Bill Spight wrote:

They had reason to suspect Metta of cheating. As long as that is so, other motives they may have had are irrelevant.


I think motivations are important Bill, and that it is important to keep it in mind when judging a situation.

Moreover, the Italian team motivation to cheat was nothing: no gain in cheating when you already lost, in contrast of very big risks.

If I were Colombo, and I had to investigate over this case, it would be the first things I would notice in my notebook.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #35 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:30 am 
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I think at the level of team motivations, it is not easy to find one for Italy. Having 1 player cheat won't help much.
Same really for Israel, why would the team look to have 15.7 on its own invoked in a won match. Very small benefit there. If they also hoped for 15.8 to be invoked, again, it seems like they are just removing one of their victories.
I don't think that the subject of motivations of a team, or an individual, is on topic in this thread, which is called Questions about a game.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #36 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:45 am 
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Javaness2 wrote:
I don't think that the subject of motivations of a team, or an individual, is on topic in this thread, which is called Questions about a game.


Oh, I'm sorry Javaness I've got out of theme!

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #37 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:58 am 
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Position 5. I found this one particularly tough to decide upon.

The chosen move seems to naturally induce an attack on the marked group, which could surely later rebound against :b1: there. I'd have imagined _b_ aiming at inducing _c_ in this position, but that's only a 2 second impression. :) Interested to know what LZ or AQ would choose here.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bcm51 Move 51
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | X X . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O X X X O . . O . 1 . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . O O O X O . O . a . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . O X X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . b . . . . . . . c . . |
$$ | . . O . . B . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . X . X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . O . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . O . . . . . . O . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X X O . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . X O O X O . . . . . . O . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . X O . O . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #38 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:01 am 
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MircoF wrote:
Bill Spight wrote:

They had reason to suspect Metta of cheating. As long as that is so, other motives they may have had are irrelevant.


I think motivations are important Bill, and that it is important to keep it in mind when judging a situation.


If the Israeli team were the investigators, then we might consider their motivations if we were concerned that they might make a biased analysis.

But they were not the investigators, and they did present a biased analysis. So what? Making an unbiased analysis was not their job.

Quote:
Moreover, the Italian team motivation to cheat was nothing: no gain in cheating when you already lost, in contrast of very big risks.


Carlo's motivation is a factor in considering his guilt, especially as all we have in the game record are coincidences that may have arisen by chance. But, truth to say, the facet that the team had already lost may have increased his personal motivation, since the risk was his alone.

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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #39 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:09 am 
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Bill Spight wrote:

Carlo's motivation is a factor in considering his guilt, especially as all we have in the game record are coincidences that may have arisen by chance. But, truth to say, the facet that the team had already lost may have increased his personal motivation, since the risk was his alone.


From PGETC rules:

"Penalties:

Any cheating results in losing the complete match on all four boards with an additional four MP-penalty.

Second cheating disqualifies the team for the running season and the next two season."


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 Post subject: Re: Questions about a game
Post #40 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:12 am 
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Javaness2 wrote:
Position 5. I found this one particularly tough to decide upon.

The chosen move seems to naturally induce an attack on the marked group, which could surely later rebound against :b1: there. I'd have imagined _b_ aiming at inducing _c_ in this position, but that's only a 2 second impression. :) Interested to know what LZ or AQ would choose here.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bcm51 Move 51
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | X X . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O X X X O . . O . 1 . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . O O O X O . O . a . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . O X X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . b . . . . . . . c . . |
$$ | . . O . . B . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . X . X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . O . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . O . . . . . . O . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X X O . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . X O O X O . . . . . . O . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . X O . O . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


Leela 11 picked the same play as Carlo, both when Frejlak ran it and when Bojanic ran it.

White's best response, according to Bojanic's Leela 11:
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bcm51 Move 51
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | X X . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O X X X O . . O . 1 . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . O O O X O . O . . . . . . . 4 . . . |
$$ | . . . . O X X . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . 2 . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . O . . B . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . X . X . 3 . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . O . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . O . . . . . . O . . X . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X X X O . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . X O O X O . . . . . . O . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . X O . O . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

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Last edited by Bill Spight on Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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