Attack and defend with Lizzie

kvasir · **#21**

Knotwilg wrote:

On your instigation that "going from 69% to 80% has a different meaning than flipping the favorite" if that's what you meant, I differ. A 11% change in winning probability surely means someone made a mistake, regardless of the starting percentage?

I meant that 69% is already a lot. I had in mind that if one thinks that it was an even position to begin with it might be a surprise that black is favored in the end. Going to 80% doesn't mean much to me because it doesn't look forced for the most part and the author of the line wasn't thinking of the percentage. I mean anything can happen if someone makes moves for both sides.

Bill Spight · **#22**

kvasir wrote:

Bill Spight wrote:

Are you talking about a variation in the book or an LZ variation? The variation just looks dubious, not just because it is good for black instead of white but because it seems to require black and white to cooperate to arrive at the final position.

You quote me as saying something I did not. Please be careful.

Quote:

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$W The idea from the book $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O O O . | $$ | . . O O X . . . X . . . . . . X O . O | $$ | . . . X X . . . . , . . . X . X X O . | $$ | . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . | $$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . . , . . . . . , O . . | $$ | . . O 9 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . 6 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . 8 3 4 . . . . . . . . . . O . . | $$ | . . a 1 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . X . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . X X O O . . , . . . . . , X . . | $$ | . X X O O . . O . . . . . . X . . . . | $$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

I'm talking about the "idea" variation from the book, Knotwilg had this variation in his LZ analysis. Black plays b next and black is much better according to LZ.

The variation doesn't look like something that could happen. That is what I mean by cooperating. It is not clear why both players would play this way, in fact black did not play this. Why does black not respond with the shape move at a? Why does white play the hane :w2:

? It is really hard to play yourself because you don't have an opponent.

I do not have the book, so I do not know how the book portrays this variation. It looks like a variation where Black "fell for it". That is, White wanted to play at :w9:

right away, but did not like the result. :w1:

is an attempt to get a better result. The above line certainly seems like a better result, since White gets not only :w9:

but

and

, at the cost of only two stones. (To me, :b6:

looks quite bad.) The kicker, perhaps, is that LZ says that Black can follow up with :b10:

at b, and it is White who fell for it. :lol:

kvasir · **#23**

Bill Spight wrote:

You quote me as saying something I did not. Please be careful.

I'm sorry. Have changed it in an edit now.

Knotwilg · **#24**

Bill Spight wrote:

I do not have the book, so I do not know how the book portrays this variation. It looks like a variation where Black "fell for it". That is, White wanted to play at :w9:

right away, but did not like the result. :w1:

is an attempt to get a better result. The above line certainly seems like a better result, since White gets not only :w9:

but

and

, at the cost of only two stones. (To me, :b6:

looks quite bad.) The kicker, perhaps, is that LZ says that Black can follow up with :b10:

at b, and it is White who fell for it. :lol:

The book has this variation as something the author wanted to lure his opponent into but the opponent dodged it by turning at the top. No other variations are discussed in the book. As I speculated above, perhaps both were indeed thinking along the same lines and there was some psychological warfare going on. Even at my level, I can sometimes see that my opponent sees what I'm seeing" Even at Ishida's level, they can trick each other into both seeing the wrong thing: LZ would have responded to the "trick play" with a keima but not because of this variation. If you force feed the variation to LZ, she thinks Black's chances have gone up (I know you "saw" that already

)

Attack and defend with Lizzie

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