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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #21 Posted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 5:09 pm 
Lives with ko

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KGS: venkman, M2Brett1
  1. 5d
  2. 5k
  3. 9d
  4. 2k
  5. 4k

In game 1, Black's play seems to go a little funny around move 33; up to that point I was willing to believe it was a pro game.
Game 2, the move 13/15 combination seems to put a lowish upper limit on the strength.
Game 3, the initial sequence with the probe is something you typically see from high-level players. Move 28 looks funny to me, but not enough so I'd definitely call it bad. White seems to have tried to win the capturing race by creating a big eye which takes some reading ability, but misreads do happen at every level. Not sure about this game.
Game 4, move 45/47 looks odd. Other than that, some signs of thought.
Game 5, move 9 looks bad; move 43 seems a bit overconcentrated and surrounds an open skirt; the sequence at 224 shows some reading problems.

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #22 Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 6:42 am 
Lives with ko

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OK, here's my guesses:
1. 9d
2. 5k
3. 9d
4. 4d
5. 3k

Now I'll go see what the rest of you put...

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #23 Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 7:13 am 
Gosei
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KGS: fwiffo
1. 7d
2. 2k
3. 1d
4. 4d
5. 5k

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #24 Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 2:51 pm 
Lives in gote
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7k
3D
7D
1D
4k


The third one looks really like pro game, but i don't think pro will mess up the game so early

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #25 Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 3:00 pm 
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I read through other people's comments, and many think the

first one pro. Isn't O14 bad?


and someone put them
all as kyus :twisted:


I also think now

Araban's example in the first post


may be the correct answer :D

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #26 Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 4:01 pm 
Lives with ko
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I looked at other people's guesses, then looked at the games again ...
... I feel stupid now :-|

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #27 Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 9:02 pm 
Dies with sente
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  1. 1d
  2. 10k
  3. 7d
  4. 5k
  5. 3k

1. :b19: looks like a bad shape. Pros would probably make the solid connection at P14 instead. But :w20: fixed it for black. R18 might have been better. :b33: seems wrong -- why would black strengthen the stronger right side at the expense of the weaker left side? :b33: should have switched places with :w34:. :b53: looks a bit odd too. F15 or even E13 seems the shape here. And black's misreading the sequence starting with :b55: is unimpressive. White's handling of the lower-left corner seems somewhat timid (e.g., why :w82: not at D3?) OTOH, both players demonstrated some skill with moves like :b91: and :w94:. Finally, I don't think a pro or high dan player would have played the last few moves like black did before resigning.

2. It looks like neither player saw anything wrong with the lower-right corner after :b99:.

3. Up to :b39: this could have been a pro game. However, white needed a move at C17 or B13 to defend the corner. White might have misread the corner or the capturing race (overlooking the :b75: :b77: combination?), which is somewhat uncharacteristic of a pro. But white's resigning without playing out the sequence seems to suggest he is at least a high dan.

4. :w14: is wrong. :b19: could have taken advantage of the mistake of :w14: by continuing pushing on the 4th line. Black #159 at P7 would have captured at least the two white stones; or better yet, O6 would have ensured the capture of the three white stones and the escape of the four black stones.

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #28 Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 3:03 am 
Gosei

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Now that the deadline for answers has passed, I can post the first statistics.

The averages of answers were:

1: 4d (3.89)
2: 4k (4.26)
3: 3d (3.16)
4: 1k (0.95)
5: 5k (4.53)

(The closest to the average answers was blue, who would get 42 points if the average answers were the correct ones)

The standard deviations of answers were:

1: 4.25
2: 4.20
3: 5.03
4: 4.66
5: 4.68

I have agreed with Araban that he will send the right answers to me later this evening (US time), after which I will calculate the points and publish them with some statistics & graphs

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #29 Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 12:28 am 
Gosei

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As promised, Araban sent me the answers and I calculated the scores.

The right answers are:

1. 7d (artem vs. zchen)
2. 5k (fwiffo vs. Dogen)
3. 9d (kobra vs. yatasty)
4. 1d (Naso vs. mutare)
5. 1k (spirito vs. topazg)

And the scores (I haven't checked them thoroughly yet, so if you spot any errors, let me know):

Kirby 43 (6+9+10+9+9)
crux 43 (8+10+10+8+7)
Stable 43 (8+10+10+7+8)
Harleqin 39 (5+9+7+9+9)
unkx80 36 (8+8+7+7+6)
Magicwand 32 (8+10+6+8+0)
illuck 32 (7+8+0+10+7)
fwiffo 32 (10+7+2+7+6)
blue 31 (8+7+2+8+6)
ratata 30 (5+8+10+0+7)
hiyayang 30 (4+5+8+5+8)
daniel_the_smith 29 (8+6+3+3+9)
kokomi 28 (0+3+8+10+7)
Zwergesel 25 (4+10+5+4+2)
sparvel 22 (1+7+2+8+4)
phrax 21 (8+4+0+9+0)
Dusk Eagle 20 (8+4+1+4+3)
Marcus 13 (6+0+0+6+1)
tj86430 12 (2+8+0+0+2)

(please note that fwiffo did't recognize his own game :evil:)

I will post some statistics later today.

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #30 Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:25 am 
Gosei
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KGS: fwiffo
:oops: Actually, I thought it looked familiar. But I thought it looked like a mash-up of some different situations I've seen in different games of mine. I also remember having LOST that game, so I may have been replaying it my head from Dogen's point of view. I remember in the original godiscussions.com review of the game saying something like "move X is where I think I lost the game" already having forgotten that I won by 0.5 points.

Anyhow, I deserve a penalty for having such an inflated opinion of my own play.

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #31 Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:33 am 
Tengen
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I kept putting this off because of time constraints, and missed the deadline :(

tj86430 wrote:
5. 1k (spirito vs. topazg)


Hahaha, awesome! I'm guessing I won as Black in this game looks very much like the way I'd play, but when's it from? I don't remember this game at all ..

EDIT: Found it, 30th July 2008!

I think I was a weak EGF 2k or so around then, so 1k is slightly generous to me, but heh, that's what the server said at the time so I guess you have to use it

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #32 Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:13 am 
Gosei

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Some analysis of the scores:

Average of points for each game:

1: 6.00
2: 6.79
3: 5.74
4: 6.00
5: 6.68

Standard deviation of points for each game:

1: 2.75
2: 2.86
3: 2.45
4: 3.02
5: 3.11

Competitors rank vs score (first graph is for total score, and the rest for individual games. Two graphs / image)


Attachments:
guess_strength_1_1.jpg
guess_strength_1_1.jpg [ 31.16 KiB | Viewed 5543 times ]
guess_strength_1_2.jpg
guess_strength_1_2.jpg [ 28.65 KiB | Viewed 5543 times ]
guess_strength_1_3.jpg
guess_strength_1_3.jpg [ 29.98 KiB | Viewed 5543 times ]

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #33 Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:56 am 
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Score 4 looks like a kangaroo, score 5 looks like a horse. What this says about trends in strength vs accuracy I don't know...

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #34 Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 10:18 am 
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I guess I did much better than anticipated. Seems pretty much consistent with my own rank guessing estimation when I posted life and death problems - I never seem to estimate the difficulty on the spot, but always off by about 3 ranks in either direction. :P

The charts show some interesting information. The total score indicates that a player's ability to estimate ranks seem to be independent from the player's rank?

People tend to do guess better in games 1, 2, and 4. Game 3 floored most people. There are points all over the place in the chart of game 5.

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #35 Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 10:49 am 
Gosei

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Please note, that only the answers of people whose rank is indicated in profile are included in the graphs.

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #36 Posted: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:54 pm 
Honinbo

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Wow, I did well for a change!

Now I just wish that I only had to do this once to get a prize...

I guess I will try to do well in the next one, too.

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #37 Posted: Thu Jun 17, 2010 11:00 pm 
Honinbo

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Actually, I can't seem to find the next one, now. Is this series being postponed?

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #38 Posted: Thu Jun 17, 2010 11:02 pm 
Gosei

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Kirby wrote:
Actually, I can't seem to find the next one, now. Is this series being postponed?

My guess is that Araban has been too busy (or has forgotten).

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #39 Posted: Thu Jun 17, 2010 11:39 pm 
Gosei
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tj86430 wrote:
Kirby wrote:
Actually, I can't seem to find the next one, now. Is this series being postponed?

My guess is that Araban has been too busy (or has forgotten).

I've been busy, but the reason was that I made a mental note to start the next one on the 20th for some reason instead of the 15th :/.

edit: Epic fail on my part, I filtered out the kibitz on the SGFs I picked out and had them ready to go, but drove down to my family's home and forgot to post the new SGFs or put them on a thumb drive :/. Delayed till Sunday evening when I get back, again sorry :(.

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 Post subject: Re: Strength Analysis Forum Game - Series 1
Post #40 Posted: Fri Jun 18, 2010 7:52 am 
Gosei
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KGS: Chew
Hey, I did 100% better on this game than the last one!

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