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 Post subject: Win Rates and Visits in ELF
Post #1 Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:53 am 
Tengen

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In MCTS, you expect that given adequate time, the move with the highest win percentage will also have the most visits. Is this also true for ELF? If so, how long would you expect it to take for the two to converge? I have failed to see it after a few thousand playouts, but I suppose that’s not that many.

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 Post subject: Re: Win Rates and Visits in ELF
Post #2 Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:22 pm 
Judan

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A few thousand is tiny. If I want to do some serious analysis of a position I'll give Elf 50-100k playouts.

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 Post subject: Re: Win Rates and Visits in ELF
Post #3 Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:32 pm 
Lives with ko

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hyperpape wrote:
In MCTS, you expect that given adequate time, the move with the highest win percentage will also have the most visits.
I don't think this is necessarily true, only if search did not find new moves in upper levels (or important followups below them) for a while, and there are no close candidates.

But generally, both visits and winrates will lag behind latest knowledge, only in different ways (visits can only accumulate slowly, winrates can only change by averaging into them).

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