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 Post subject: Re: A Curious Case Study in KGS Ranks
Post #81 Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 3:34 pm 
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Polama wrote:
To switch to the sports metaphor:

If a leadoff hitter usually bats .300 and goes .200 in a month span, I'm going to predict that he'll be right back to .300 next month. That sort of variation occurs. We should trust his track record.

If he instead goes .015 in a month, I don't expect him to immediately jump back to .300. If I'm the manager, I'm not going to bat him leadoff until he demonstrates he can hit again over at least a week or two. The signal that something has fundamentally changed is just too strong to ignore. Maybe he does return to full form tomorrow. But until he demonstrates some change, I think predicting an imminent bounce-back is too aggressive, that you'd get more predictions right by saying "ok, he's not very good right now and won't play well next game".

I agree the formula is probably reasonable for normal, human levels of variation. But at these levels of play and variation it looks overly stubborn in its insistence for hundreds of games at a time that the next one will be different. Ok, the next one. Ok the next one...



I'm on a phone right now so I can't give this the response I want to, but since you brought in the baseball reference, I couldn't resist. The player you are likely looking for in this analogy is Craig Counsell. He was a career .250 hitter (over 4000+ AB) who a couple years ago out of the blue went 0 for 45. After he finally snapped his slump he hit pretty much back at his career line.

To bring it back to the bot, projecting it to be 1-2 stones lower is basically the go equivalent of sending it back to AAA (expecting a sub .200 average)

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