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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #21 Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:01 am 
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An upper limit to grades was not discussed in the commission, but the new formulae imply an upper limit of 13d/21p EGF, assumed (roughly) to correspond to perfect play. A theoretical entity of this level would be able to give 5 or 6 stones handicap to a top European player (~8d/4p EGF) and 3 or 4 stones handicap to a World champion (~10d/11p EGF). With this assumption, top AI level is assumed to be about 12d/18p EGF.


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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #22 Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:28 am 
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I think there should be also thought making a new rating class, for tournaments with top players. The class A to C is not bad for normal tournaments I think (I don´t mention class D cause it´s only online), but in my opinion the system should be completed, wit han class S (for Special) or however someone would call.
We have some tournaments for top players, with way more time per move, then in average tournaments. The typical class A tournament, got 1 hour + canadian Byo Yomi (for example the typical 15 stones in 5 minutes), but there tournaments way more time to think, 90 min. + Byo Yomi or even two hours + Byo Yomi and in some even the Byo Yomi got a quite exceeded time, compared to other tournaments.
When we see top players, we can see that it´s quite a difference there, if they play just 1 hour with Byo Yomi or 90 min + Yomi or even more. In the longer games the stronger player reigns more suprior. In the more average timed tournaments, the outsiders do more often beat the favourites on high Dan levels, then in games with more time.

So it does matter for really strong players, if they have jsut the normal class A tournament time or the much bigger time from a Championship. Here really shines the strength of the good players and the outsiders has to do more, to get the win, cause the favourite here can mobilize more ressources with more time. I think an class S rating should be establieshed with tournaments who have at least 90 min and + can. Byo Yomi 15 stones in 5 min. (or the fitting pendant in the Fischer Time). Class S should then count 125% on the rating, instead of the 100% from class A tournament I suppose.
In the end, I think this would be a good solution. And it would be nearly exclusive for top players (only exception is the EGC, where more players got so much time).

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #23 Posted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:01 am 
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gennan wrote:
An upper limit to grades was not discussed in the commission, but the new formulae imply an upper limit of 13d/21p EGF, assumed (roughly) to correspond to perfect play. A theoretical entity of this level would be able to give 5 or 6 stones handicap to a top European player (~8d/4p EGF) and 3 or 4 stones handicap to a World champion (~10d/11p EGF). With this assumption, top AI level is assumed to be about 12d/18p EGF.

Nice so we should extend to 12d if the robots are allowed to join!! Currently the strongest amateur player rank is 8d. The system can handle 9d but it's accutally not correctly implemented so atm an 9d would be downgraded to 8d by an egd rating manager.
If a player is entered as new then he gets these initial ratings:
Code:
5d   2500
6d   2600
7d   2700
8d   2800
9d   2670 <= this seems wrong
1p   2700
2p   2730
3p   2760
4p   2790
5p   2820
6p   2850
7p   2880
8p   2910
9p   2940

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #24 Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:04 am 
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It does seem reasonable to me to have 8d as the maximum Entry Grade for human amateur newcomers to the rating system.

Perhaps it should even be 7d? Most of the current players with ratings around 2800 have started at an Entry Grade of 7d and worked their way up by winning a lot of games against other top players. 8d is not an amateur grade that is easily aquired in China or Korea (I think you need to be something like top 5 amateur nation wide, which is quite formidable). Only in Japan it seems to occur more frequently, but Japanese dan grades are significantly weaker than EGF dan grades. 8d in Japan could be anything from 5d EGF to 7d EGF.

So I think it should not even be possible to accept 9d amateur as a first Entry Grade. It should only apply to human amateurs that can consistently beat quite strong pros (around 8p or somewhere between #200 and #400 on https://www.goratings.org/en/?). I don't know if such amateurs really exist. Does any of you know a name of such a player, who is still alive and actively playing in tournaments? I think he would be pretty famous (like Nie Wei Ping around 1981). In the exceedingly rare case where such an amateur player participates in an EGF tournament, it would justify manual intervention by the EGD manager to set his first Entry Grade to 9d amateur.

For pros it is a different matter. I think they should just declare their official pro Grade and the rating system should initialize their rating to the EGF rating corresponding to that pro Grade, like @betterlife's list (which is already the case, I think).

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #25 Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:46 am 
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At the minute, professional players have their rating reset when they are promoted. Resets seem very desirable for improving players, but I don't immediately see why they are wanted for professional players. Is there any plan to change this part of the system?

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #26 Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:05 pm 
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This was not discussed in the commission, but pro grades are not earned lightly, so personally I feel that resetting seems quite harmless to do in the few cases where the EGF rating is not quite as high as the corresponding pro grade rating. In fact, resetting for professional grade promotions may even be considered a good opportunity to calibrate top EGF ratings.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #27 Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:58 am 
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Many tournaments are being canceled due to Covid-19. This will worsen the deflation phenomenon. I am afraid that if the situation continues like this for some time, ranks will become meaningless.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #28 Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:44 am 
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How does tournament cancelling worsen deflation?

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #29 Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:18 am 
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If many people improve but don't play in tournaments, once they come back to competing they will become sandbaggers.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #30 Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:16 pm 
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It has always been the case that (on average) players improve between tournaments and this would inflate ratings if nothing is done to compensate for improvement. The EGF rating system tries to compensate by allowing rating resets (when promoting 2 ranks or more) and by giving a small rating bonus for each tournament game played. The correct size of the bonus is a bit of a guess, because the actual average improvement is hard to measure and it probably varies over time and over different regions. With statistical analysis, we found that the current bonus is probably too small, so it will be increased when the EGF rating system will be updated. But it's still a fairly crude mechanism.

During the corona crisis, I don't know if tournament players (on average) are improving at the normal rate (whatever that is) or better. Some tournament players will study and play a lot online and improve, but many others will improve less or even decline, because they have less motivation to study when clubs and tournaments are closed, they don't like to play online and/or they don't learn as much from playing online.

But if some players know that they are really improving a lot during the corona crisis (because they have great success playing online), they can just apply a rating reset in the 1st tournament they play afterwards and that will fix the problem. Unless ofcourse self-promotion is prohibited by the national go association of the player. Maybe such go associations might create a temporary policy to consider promotion requests with some online evidence given by the applicant?


Last edited by gennan on Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #31 Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:32 pm 
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If (say) 50% of people improve by 1 stone and 50% don't improve, the former won't have their rating reset because 1 stone difference is not a clear evidence of improvement, so the whole rating system will be deflated by one half stone.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #32 Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:36 pm 
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I think it's very optimistic to assume that 50% of tournament players improve by a stone during the corona crisis (even while they can only play online). A large majority of tournament players is at a plateau (for years) and that won't suddenly change during the corona crisis.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #33 Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:49 pm 
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It is possible to fix this by changing the rating bonus mechanism. Now it works by giving a bonus for every tournament game. If this is changed to give a bonus over time (regardles if you played tournament games during that time), then it would be possible to compensate for average player improvement even during a pandemic.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #34 Posted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:56 pm 
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Some people are in favor of developing online tournaments and rate them with a full coefficient, but this solution is not ideal because of cheating or disconnection risks.

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #35 Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:59 am 
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gennan wrote:
I think it's very optimistic to assume that 50% of tournament players improve by a stone during the corona crisis (even while they can only play online). A large majority of tournament players is at a plateau (for years) and that won't suddenly change during the corona crisis.


Looking more closely at the EGF rating system, I think you are right. Around 5 kyu, the expected gain after one match is con*epsilon/2 which is a bit less than 0.4 rating point. If we estimate that 60000 rated games are played each year, and that 6000 people are EGF rated, then each rated player plays about 10 rated games/year, meaning that the system assumes that a player gains on average 0.04 stone/year.

The rating system does not necessarily correspond to reality, and my calculation is very rough, but after 1 year or a bit more of corona crisis, the drift will probably be less than 0.1 stone, which looks fine and could easily be corrected by adjusting the parameter epsilon at least for a while.

(I was imagining that many sandbaggers would appear all around but this probably won't happen.)

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 Post subject: Re: EGF Rating System Commission Report 2020
Post #36 Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:02 am 
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I think those estimations are roughly correct.

In the upcoming changes to the rating system, the bonus will be increased for kyu players (it will be about 1 rating point around 3k, 5 rating points around 15k and 8 rating points around 30k, which is about 2 to 3 times the current value). We think this larger bonus is closer to the real average player improvement per tournament game.

Plugging that increased bonus into your rough estimations for the average tournament player improvement per year, the predicted values are still fairly small (0.1 stone per year around 3k, 0.5 stone around 15k and 0.8 stone around 30k).

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