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 Post subject: Re: Kirby's Study Journal
Post #1461 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:03 am 
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Labor Day is over, so I’m back to my routine... Or at least that was the plan.

Yesterday, I was clearing out debris from our bathroom (I am remodeling), and part of that involved taking out the wooden frame that surrounded our bathtub (I’m going to put in a free standing tub, instead). That also involved breaking up spmenof the tile that was there. The room was getting dusty, and it didn’t seem healthy to be breathing in the debris in the air, so I opened the window. So far, so good. A little bit later, I smashed some more tile, and a puff of dust entered the air. I didn’t want to breathe it, so I quickly stuck my head out the window for some fresh air... Except that, now that my head was out the window, I felt pain in my foot. I looked down, and yes, I had stepped on a nail. It went through my shoe and I was bleeding quite a bit.

I got the bleeding to stop, got some antibiotic cream, and treated the wound. It hurt to walk, but seemed OK. The only remaining problem was that I hadn’t had a tetanus shot since 2004, so it seemed like a good idea to get one.

So this morning, I deviated from my running routine, and went to the doctor to get a tetanus shot instead. It means that’s i also didn’t do any go problems yet this morning. So I’m overall behind today.

What it means for the journal is that i wont post a game at lunchtime. I’ll catch up on problems instead.

The good thing is, the AYD started up again this week, and my first game is tonight. So I’ll play that, and post an analysis in about 12 hours...

If all goes well, my go routine will be back on track. I just won’t run today. It hurts to walk, anyway, so taking a day off due to nail problems seems reasonable :salute:

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Post #1462 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:10 am 
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Hope the foot recovers quickly and nicely.
Is there an expiration date for tetanus shots ?
And the shot is 'retro-active' ? :)
( too lazy to wikipedia :blackeye: )

Off topic: did you read either Mr. Yoshikawa's Musashi or Mr. Inoue's Vagabond ?

Off off topic:
is the bathtub regularly used ? ( otherwise, it's just a waste of space and remodeling efforts, if a walk-in shower provides for 100% usage; in the past 30 years, I took a bath maybe 3 times total ?! This included once in a rural Japan on-sen! )

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 Post subject: Re: Kirby's Study Journal
Post #1463 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:44 am 
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Depending on the vaccine, it's recommended to get a tetanus shot every 5 to 10 years. The one I received today is said to be effective for about 5 years. I am not an expert on tetanus, but from what I looked up online after getting injured, it was recommended to get a tetanus shot within 48 hours of stepping on the nail to avoid risk of tetanus. Even if you step on a nail, you might not get tetanus, particularly if the nail is clean. But stepping on one, the risk of getting tetanus is increased. Tetanus can be fatal, so I thought it'd be good to get a vaccination, just in case.

I have not read either of the books you mentioned. I like to read, but I only allocate about 40 minutes per day to doing so recreationally (shortly before going to bed). Right now, I am about 70% through a book called Sapiens - I think you might have heard of it, because if I recall, you were reading the Japanese version at some point. I'm reading the English edition right now.

Regarding baths, I'm a big fan of onsen, and I also like Korean jjimjilbangs. Whenever I went on business trips to Chicago, I'd hit up King's Spa. But at home, like you, I don't use the bathtub much. That being said, my wife likes taking baths to relax. So it's mostly for her. We have 4 bathrooms in the house, so if it were just for me, I wouldn't even need this one (indeed, while the remodeling is going on, I'm using one of the other bathrooms). I like simple showers. Recently, I've been taking cold showers for a few of reasons:
1. Supposedly, cold showers help skin health
2. They wake me up
3. Despite #1 and #2 above, I'm a little bit skeptical of the benefit of cold showers. And it's fri***** cold, so it takes a lot of willpower to take a cold shower - I ask myself, "Why am I doing this?!?"... In some ways, I feel that this helps me to exercise self-discipline... Or maybe I'm a little bit masochistic.

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Post #1464 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:07 pm 
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Hi Kirby,

I only read Sapiens in English; my Japanese is toddler level. :blackeye:

As for cold showers, yes, takes will power; instead of 100% cold water, how about a regular hot shower, and just before you turn off the water at the end, let it become cold for a few seconds ( usually, if it's controlled by only one lever, the lever must go through 'cold' before resetting to 'off' anyway, yes ? ); this way you only 'suffer' for a few seconds; it wakes you up ( I heard it's the abrupt change in the temperature that activates your immune system and other goodies ? ) :)

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Post #1465 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:18 pm 
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I think I've heard that called a "contrast shower" before. I've done that sometimes, too.

Anyway, about the two books you mentioned - is there a reason for brining them up? I will be looking for some new reading material once I finish Sapiens...

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Post #1466 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:36 pm 
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Played my first AYD game of the season against a friend, Anthony. I was nervous to play, because he's been improving a lot.

I got lucky, and won by 6.5 points.

Here is the game:


Don't have much time to review it right now, other than what I wrote in the SGF. I got pretty lucky with capturing on the top in the endgame - maybe that changed the game result? Not sure. I was in byo-yomi for awhile, so it's hard to say.

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Post #1467 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:39 pm 
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Quote:
the two books you mentioned - is there a reason for bringing them up?
Yes; the reason will be obvious once you read either one. :)


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Post #1468 Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:44 pm 
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OK, I lied. Skimmed through the game with LZ briefly before bed. LZ says I lose over 40% with this move:
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , O . . . . , . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X O . |
$$ | . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , O W . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . O . . . O X X O . |
$$ | . . . . . . X X X X O . . . . X O . . |
$$ | . . O O O . X O O O X O . . . X O . . |
$$ | . . X X . . X . . X X O . . . X O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . X O . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


omg

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Post #1469 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:02 am 
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I lost on fox for the first time. I kind of blame insomnia from last night - I'm pretty tired. But that's just an excuse, I know...

Anyway, here is the game:

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Post #1470 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:05 am 
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Highlights...

Position 1
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X O . . O . . . . O X X . . . . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , O . O X . X . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . O X . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X O . . X . O O O O O . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . O . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X X O 6 X . X . 7 . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . O O O X X 4 5 O O O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , O X X O X 2 3 O X X X , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X O O O 1 O X O . . . . . |
$$ | . . O O O O X . . . X X O X . X X . . |
$$ | . . X . X X X . . . . . O . . O . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . X X O O O . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . O . O . X O X . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . X O . O X . . X O . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . X O X . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . X O O . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


I thought the trade above was decent at the time, but in retrospect, I think it was pretty bad...

Postion 2
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . O . . . . . X X . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , O . O X . X . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . O X . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . O O O O O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . O . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . B . . . . . . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . X X O O O . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . O . . . X O X . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . X O . O X . . X O . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . X O X . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . X O O . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


I think the move above is too greedy. Instead, I think I should be more moderate. Maybe this:
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . O . . . . . X X . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , O . O X . X . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . O X . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . O O O O O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . B . . . . . , . O . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . X X O O O . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . O . . . X O X . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . X O . O X . . X O . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . X O X . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . X O O . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


Position 3
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . a . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . X O . O X . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . . . X . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


The tenuki above is questionable. Perhaps helping around 'a' is better.

Didn't check LZ yet.

I am basically making an excuse when I complain about being tired, but I will say that I'm happy that I played today. I was tempted to skip.

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Post #1471 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:09 am 
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Thoughts from LZ with barely any playouts...

LZ seems to think tenuki is OK here, but does low:
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . X O . O X . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . . . X . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


LZ didn't like this peep:
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . O . . . . . . X . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . O O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . O . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . X O . O X . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . . . X . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


Wanted to just reduce instead:
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . O . . O . . . . . . X . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . X . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . O O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . B . X X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . O . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . X O . O X . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . . . X . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


Right here, LZ seems to think I can get back into the game by just grabbing the 3 stones:
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . O . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X O . . O . . . . O X X . . . . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , O . O X . X . . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . O X . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . X . O O O O O . . |
$$ | . . . X . . . O . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X X O . . . X . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . O O O X X . . O O O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . , O X X O X , . O X X X , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . X O O B . O X O . . . . . |
$$ | . . O O O O X . . . X X O X . X X . . |
$$ | . . X . X X X . . . . . O . . O . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . X X O O O . O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . O . O . X O X . . . O X . . |
$$ | . . X O . O X . . X O . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . X . O X O O . X O X . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . X O O . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]


That's all I have time for now. Maybe with more playouts LZ has a different opinion.,

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Post #1472 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:55 pm 
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Kirby wrote:
Thoughts from LZ with barely any playouts...

{snip}

That's all I have time for now. Maybe with more playouts LZ has a different opinion.,


For analysis, I wouldn't trust LZ with fewer than 10k playouts.

Usually the play in the game, if it is different from LZ's choice will not have many playouts, and, as Uberdude points out, running LZ long enough to bring the number up can be prohibitive. In that case, make the play and base the winrate on LZ's choice, which should have more than 10k playouts. For instance, if the Black peep has fewer than 1k playouts, play it and see what LZ's choice is for White's reply. For instance, it may choose to connect, with 30k playouts. Then take the Black winrate estimate of the connection as the estimate for the peep. :)

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Post #1473 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:04 pm 
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Word!

If only I had more than an hour for my lunch break, I could let it run longer :-(

I like the idea, though. Seems like it will save some time.

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Post #1474 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:11 pm 
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Peep is a bad move. Lizzy is correct.

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Post #1475 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:12 pm 
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Kirby wrote:
Word!

If only I had more than an hour for my lunch break, I could let it run longer :-(

I like the idea, though. Seems like it will save some time.


Many thanks to yoyoma for basicly giving me the idea. :)

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Post #1476 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:57 pm 
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Quote:
For analysis, I wouldn't trust LZ with fewer than 10k playouts.
Anyone remembers how many playouts in the AG-LeeSedol matches and the AG-KeJie matches ? Was it on the order of 10M playouts ?

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 Post subject: Re: Kirby's Study Journal
Post #1477 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:33 pm 
Judan

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Bill Spight wrote:
Kirby wrote:
Thoughts from LZ with barely any playouts...

{snip}

That's all I have time for now. Maybe with more playouts LZ has a different opinion.,


For analysis, I wouldn't trust LZ with fewer than 10k playouts.



Depends how strongly you want to be sure LZ is right. In a game of Kirby's level if LZ says a move is bad with a few hundred playouts and another is better I wouldn't take it as gospel, but it's probably true at least 9 times out of 10. It's like how a pro can often point out your mistakes just based on shape intuition without doing any reading.

Ed, I don't think that was publicly stated, but maybe we can spy in screenshots of AlphaGo movie. AG teaching tool is 10million.

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Post #1478 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:37 pm 
Honinbo

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EdLee wrote:
Quote:
For analysis, I wouldn't trust LZ with fewer than 10k playouts.
Anyone remembers how many playouts in the AG-LeeSedol matches and the AG-KeJie matches ? Was it on the order of 10M playouts ?


Well, I meant playouts for a single option. The total number for all options would be rather bigger, OC. :)

I used to think 4k playouts was good enough for analysis, but based upon Elf's GoGoD commentary, I now think 10k may be necessary for today's top bots.

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Post #1479 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:49 pm 
Honinbo
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Hi Bill,
Quote:
don't think that was publicly stated, but maybe we can spy in screenshots of AlphaGo movie. AG teaching tool is 10million.
Thanks. Ah, part of the secret sauce.

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 Post subject: Re: Kirby's Study Journal
Post #1480 Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:07 pm 
Honinbo

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Uberdude wrote:
In a game of Kirby's level if LZ says a move is bad with a few hundred playouts and another is better I wouldn't take it as gospel, but it's probably true at least 9 times out of 10.


Stated pretty bluntly, but I suppose you're right :-p

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