Average value of a move

[PeterPeter]

This is something I have been puzzling over.

What is the average value of a move, as the game progresses?

My first line of thinking was that komi is 6.5, and an endgame move (around move 200) might be 1 or 2, so you could draw a straight line between those points. But that doesn’t sound right (too low).

My reason for wanting to know is that, say on move 100 I find a move worth 5 points, should I be pleased to play it without a lot more thought, or spend the time looking for something better?

[EdLee]

It doesn't (necessarily) work that way -- when you're in a huge cap race
and each group is 20+ stones you're looking at a 80-point swing.

say on move 100 I find a move worth 5 points, should I be pleased to play it without a lot more thought, or spend the time looking for something better?

Before you play a move, you should always double check that it is the best that you can do.

[RobertJasiek]

Currently, each of the first few moves is said to have the average move value (miai value) 14 (i.e., twice the komi). Note that that value includes a player's increased territory, the opponent's decreased territory, the player's increased territory-equivalent of influence and the opponent's decreased territory-equivalent of influence. After the dame filling, the value is 0. In an idealised world, the value always drops or remains for a short time constant. However, mistakes(?) can temporarily raise the value. During the middle game, the value's assessment is hard, because assessing territory-equivalents of influence is hard.

[amnal]

My reason for wanting to know is that, say on move 100 I find a move worth 5 points, should I be pleased to play it without a lot more thought, or spend the time looking for something better?

I don't think the distribution of move values is remotely stable or consistent enough for this kind of decision making. You can add more heuristics to judge the move value, but to get anything useful I think you'll quickly converge on (and be unable to avoid) the optimal strategy of checking for bigger moves and playing them first.

[John Fairbairn]

To answer what I think is the real question (i.e. I believe the poster did imply that he was looking at quiescent positions), the Japanese suggestion for the value of the onset of large boundary plays (oo-yose) is usually when moves are worth about 12-13 points and that tends to happen around move 100-120, but can sometimes be much sooner. Therefore, if we are looking at moves worth 5 points when we start thinking about the boundary plays, it would indicate that we are either miscounting or we have missed the bus by miles.

[PeterPeter]

Before you play a move, you should always double check that it is the best that you can do.

I know, but playing a game in online timeframes, and with 200 empty points to evaluate in a typical middle game position, a rule of thumb comes in handy .

[skydyr]

Before you play a move, you should always double check that it is the best that you can do.

I know, but playing a game in online timeframes, and with 200 empty points to evaluate in a typical middle game position, a rule of thumb comes in handy .

There's no substitute for practice

[PeterPeter]

Let me come at it from a different angle.

Suppose an opportunity for a monkey jump arises in the first 20 moves. A monkey jump is usually worth around 8 points, I think?

Well, obviously you would not want to play it straightaway.

Roughly when in the game would you expect to start considering it as a serious option? (Or blocking it, if you are the one who left it open)

[skydyr]

Let me come at it from a different angle.

Suppose an opportunity for a monkey jump arises in the first 20 moves. A monkey jump is usually worth around 8 points, I think?

Well, obviously you would not want to play it straightaway.

Roughly when in the game would you expect to start considering it as a serious option? (Or blocking it, if you are the one who left it open)

Depending on whether it is sente or gote, when the other moves on the board are the same or lesser value. For this purpose, you should count sente moves as worth twice what a gote move is worth. This requires that you know the value of the other endgame plays on the board, of course.

EDIT: Also, if the monkey jump is sente (usually not, but sometimes) you need to look at the followup value as compared to your opponent getting a free move in somewhere else. It never hurts to look at the alternatives either. The small-knight's move monkey jump is often sente in exchange for a few points to your opponent, and sometimes a one space jump or other move is actually better than the standard large-knight's move.

[RobertJasiek]

the Japanese suggestion for the value of the onset of large boundary plays (oo-yose) is usually when moves are worth about 12-13 points and that tends to happen around move 100-120, but can sometimes be much sooner.

Do you refer to points in miai or deire values?

[Uberdude]

As others have said, the size of moves generally decreases over the course of the game but there can be huge (100+) spikes if there are large unsettled groups fighting each other. This is when moves are very urgent. Until the endgame (and in fact not even then, though by then territory is the primary concern), you should not only be thinking in terms of territory but also the strength and weakness of groups. If a move is just 8 points that's not very exciting in the opening or middlegame. But if it is 8 points and makes your / your opponents' groups stronger/weaker, aims at further things in the future etc. then that is much more interesting and likely to be a good move.

A special variant of Go termed Environmental Go was played in which there was a stack of cards valued at 20 points, 19.5, 19, 18.5 etc which could be taken instead of playing a move on the board. Studying that game will help you understand the question here. As you will see they take cards in bunches when there is nothing urgent on the board, but when there is some urgent fighting going on the size of moves increases so they will play a lot of moves without taking the cards.

I posed a whole-board question on these forums recently in which there was a big (~15 points) gote move available during the opening/middlegame. It was interesting in the differing opinions even among the stronger players here about whether to take the money: Magicwand and logan said yes, me, Bill Spight and shapenaji said no.

[jts]

Suppose an opportunity for a monkey jump arises in the first 20 moves. A monkey jump is usually worth around 8 points, I think?

It's not just about the 8 (9?) points. First, there's the question of gote and sente. If you do it in good style, the monkey jump should almost always end in sente (i.e., you have the initiative after the reduction). A sente move is your privilege. You can choose to play it very early, or you can wait and wait. Normally waiting is better. If he gets to block the monkey jump, so what? He had to give up his sente to do it. If he played it too early, he might have even lost points in the bargain. But by biding your time, you avoided helping him solidify his group. This may have allowed you use the threat of an invasion to do serious damage elsewhere. Even if there is no aji to preserve, you may end up using the monkey jump as a ko threat.

Second, there's the question of attack and defense. How much eyespace, exactly, does the group you're monkey-jumping into have? Is he barely scraping by with two eyes after the first jump? Can he ignore the first jump and give you a second jump on the inside? Or is he completely safe even if he lets you reduce his side territory to nothing? In other words, does the monkey jump have any relevance to the middle game, or is it purely an endgame (boundary-play) kind of move? If the latter, you're more likely to get egg on your face if you try to play it too early. If the former, the monkey jump may be an urgent move that gives you the upper hand in the center, as well as a few points on the side.

[Uberdude]

...Second, there's the question of attack and defense. How much eyespace, exactly, does the group you're monkey-jumping into have? Is he barely scraping by with two eyes after the first jump? Can he ignore the first jump and give you a second jump on the inside? Or is he completely safe even if he lets you reduce his side territory to nothing? In other words, does the monkey jump have any relevance to the middle game, or is it purely an endgame (boundary-play) kind of move? ...

Sometimes a monkey jump can be even worse: when he answers it can increase the eyeshape of the group you jumped into compared to doing nothing! So you just helped your opponent live instead of keeping the option of killing him later if you get stronger on the outside.

[jts]

...Second, there's the question of attack and defense. How much eyespace, exactly, does the group you're monkey-jumping into have? Is he barely scraping by with two eyes after the first jump? Can he ignore the first jump and give you a second jump on the inside? Or is he completely safe even if he lets you reduce his side territory to nothing? In other words, does the monkey jump have any relevance to the middle game, or is it purely an endgame (boundary-play) kind of move? ...

Sometimes a monkey jump can be even worse: when he answers it can increase the eyeshape of the group you jumped into compared to doing nothing! So you just helped your opponent live instead of keeping the option of killing him later if you get stronger on the outside.

And on the other hand, you can see a horribly embarrassing game of mine where W made a monkey jump to add an eye!

[deleted]

[Uberdude]

@jts, I don't know if I can get to see the monkey jump as I need to clear the blood from my eyes after r13 and p12