Kirby wrote:
Bill Spight wrote:
0.8 pt. is a small difference in the game, but a relatively large difference for a play in the opening. IMHO it is like the difference between shodan play and a 4 dan play. Small differences can add up.
Small differences can add up. Big differences can add up more.
We agree on that.

OC, in the nature of things, there are more small differences to add up.
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I spent some time letting the opening churn on leelaz this evening.
Thanks. This analysis is very interesting.

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For the first several moves, I get a graph like this:
The places were the graph jumps up are places where I am giving black an advantage - i.e., my move was bad. The first *big* jump is where the cursor is in the screenshot, from move 17 to 18. Namely, this:
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X X . . . . . . O . . . O X . . . |
$$ | . . O O W . . . . , . . . . O , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X , O . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . X O . . . O . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
With ~40k playouts, Leelaz thinks I even maintain an advantage if I play this sequence:
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 9 7 2 3 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X X 1 4 . . . . O . . . O X . . . |
$$ | . . O O 5 . . . . , . . . . O , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X , O . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . X O . . . O . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
lz says that white is slightly ahead here at 53.6%. I suppose the reason for playing the double hane is because the top is already low for white, so it's good to just take the corner territory.
Another possible reason is that Black already has taken two corners (thanks in part to getting the last open corner) and has played first in the third.

I admit that I have not figured out when to play the two step hane joseki.
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Second biggest jump was a little bit later, when I extended instead of following up in the top left:
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X X X O . . . . O . . . O X . . . |
$$ | . . O O O . . . . , . . . . O , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . . X , O . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . X O . . . O . . . . X . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
lz thinks top left is urgent, and wanted me to continue there. After black also answered on the right, and I returned to the top left, game came back closer to even:
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . 2 X X X O . . . . O . . . O X . . . |
$$ | . . O O O . . . . , . . . . O , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . . X , O . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . X O . . . O . . . . X . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
This last example was one where, after xela's post, I was going to point out that learning about what is usually a small difference can lead you to plays that make a large difference. I have noticed this phenomenon when studying the Elf GoGoD commentaries. This is a good example. If you have already learned, mostly from positions where the differences are small, that the default should be tenuki instead of the three space extension, then your eye is automatically drawn to the top left. Not that you make any play in the opening automatically, but it helps to know what to think about.

The extension on the right side approaches Black's strength, so that's a strike against it. Maybe your stomach should churn at the thought.

In any event, if you are already primed to tenuki, you have a good chance of switching to the top left, even if you do not understand its importance very well. Sometimes what usually produces small advantages produces a big one.

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After all this, some takeaways I have:
1. Three space extension is more tenuki-able than I initially thought.
2. I still don't think it's a game changer, but it'll depend on what's urgent in other parts of the board. In this example, the bottom right extension, in particular, was not urgent - the top left corner was urgent, so it would have been better to continue there.
2.5) I want to also point out that *black* also lost points by choosing the kick variations.
3. The bigger issue here was extending the third stone after the 3-3 invasion in the top left.
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There is another takeaway, I think. It is good to study the opening.

In fact, my argument about the accumulation of small advantages is made in favor of that proposition, because those who don't like to study the opening point out that the gains for each opening move are small, as a rule. Yes, I reply, but they add up. The fact that sometimes the gains are large makes opening study even better.

I have no argument with the following. I am quoting it because I think it is good.

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I agree with the premise that small differences add up. But I also think there's something to be said for prioritization. Like many others, I'm work with software for a living. One of the common things folks work on is performance optimization - you don't just want applications to work. You want them to work fast.
And one of the techniques for identifying performance optimizations is to look for bottlenecks. You look for the biggest problem area, and try to see if you can fix that. You can get a lot of bang for your buck that way. Then after fixing the biggest bottleneck, you can work your way down.
I think it's similar for go. There are several moves in a 200 or 300 move game that can require performance optimization. And the little ones can add up a lot. But when there's a big spike in your graph where you totally change the expected winner of the game... I think it's good to prioritize that.
Here, I don't think the three space extensions constituted any such spikes. But it's good to know that tenuki is a very viable option here. I'll try to keep that in mind.
While I haven't drifted too far from the performance optimization analogy, sometimes in software, after you optimize all of the big hitters, your code is still too slow. And maybe you need to rearchitect stuff. I'll probably have to do that with my go someday. But I don't think I'm there, yet. There are still a lot of spikes to flatten, which are probably easier to grab.
Well, in my case I was fortunate enough to learn from Segoe that the high approach joseki with the three space extension was not in general good for the second player. That gave me a small but concrete advantage over those who thought that it's joseki, so the results must be even.

But then AlphaGo came along and said, in effect, that the problem with that joseki is not, as Segoe and others had thought, the solid connection but the three space extension. Wow! That was an eye opener. (OC, sometimes you do make an extension, but not necessarily the three space extension and tenuki is the default.) Furthermore, that is a lesson that generalizes. It's one of the low hanging fruits of the AI era. It was something that even those who were unaware of the problem with that joseki could take away from AlphaGo's play.
Studying the opening is not easy these days, because, while the bots have overturned a lot of the old dogmas, they don't explain anything. What Takagawa taught in the 20th century was the result of human study over centuries. What Go Seigen taught was largely the result of his own genius. (But, as Rui Naiwei, who attended his study group, once told me, he often changed his mind from week to week. Creative till the end.

) Now, the bots have overturned old dogmas, but we humans have yet to rebuild opening theory. It is going to take a while.

I agree that LZ has indicated that the top left corner deserves study.

But making the default tenuki instead of the three space extension has been low hanging fruit for a few years.