Page 10 of 12
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:04 am
by Daren Snow
Kirby wrote:belikewater wrote:Although I was disappointed that Lee lost, I have to say I am very excited for the second game.
I am disappointed, too. Actually, I would say I am very disappointed, and have been pretty depressed today.
In my last "prediction" of this thread, I noted that I was leaning toward the possibility of AlphaGo winning:
Kirby wrote:
I keep going back and forth - maybe I am swayed too much by the media. Currently, I am leaning toward saying AlphaGo will win.
Despite this, in my heart, I didn't want AlphaGo to win. I didn't think I cared - computers are already better than me. But somehow, it's made me more aware of the limitations that humans have.
Here's a man who has devoted his entire life to pursue excellence in his field. He had enough devotion and put enough effort into his study to become one of the best players in the world... Regardless of whether it's Go, mathematics, art, or something else... To be one of the best in the world at something requires a level of devotion that passes beyond talent.
But alas, those years of study, hard work, perhaps sacrificing other fun things in life... were overcome in less than 2 years by a team of (albethey skilled) programmers.
On one hand, my mind can cheer for the progress that technology has made to solve problems more easily and more efficiently.
But on the other hand, it makes me sad. I don't know how to express why better than this.
Nonetheless, today is a depressing day for me.
Could be why you tried to Ban I_AM_A_SPAMMER_PLS_IGNORE ?
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 7:43 am
by Kirby
I didn't ban you, dude. I have never banned anyone. At least get your facts straight
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:23 am
by Daren Snow
Kirby wrote:I didn't ban you, dude. I have never banned anyone. At least get your facts straight
Get your facts straight is on the other foot Me/you/him/I_AM_A_SPAMMER_PLS_IGNORE ????
Just as your tried to Ban ? is much the same as influenced the powers that be
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 9:44 am
by Kirby
Daren Snow wrote:Kirby wrote:I didn't ban you, dude. I have never banned anyone. At least get your facts straight
Get your facts straight is on the other foot Me/you/him/I_AM_A_SPAMMER_PLS_IGNORE ????
Just as your tried to Ban ? is much the same as influenced the powers that be
I am saying that I didn't ban anyone. You seem to assume that I did. I explained why the ban happened, but that's all. Anyway, it's pretty immature to discuss these matters publicly - on a AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol thread, no less.
Like I said earlier,
if you have concerns, send me a PM.
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Sat Mar 12, 2016 7:58 pm
by Bonobo
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Sat Mar 12, 2016 8:42 pm
by pookpooi
I'm one of the six people who vote for AlphaGo 5-0, wondering who's the other five? Wanna know their reason
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Sat Mar 12, 2016 9:50 pm
by Bonobo
I wish I’d voted for a 5:0 victory for Ali (AlphaGo’s nickname) here also like I did later (before the games) on FB. My decision was not based on any wishful thinking since I don’t have a preference for who “should” win, but rather on how I perceived the DeepMind team’s communication and scheduling.
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Sun Mar 13, 2016 2:10 am
by Uberdude
Lee Sedol wins game 4!
On Twitter Demis said:
@demishassabis wrote:Mistake was on move 79, but #AlphaGo only came to that realisation on around move 87
Myungwan Kim also pointed out this mistake in his commentary: it should have been atari from below. From then on AlphaGo played a bunch of silly sentes reminiscent of the Monte Carlo bots.
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Sun Mar 13, 2016 3:00 am
by kaliya
AlphaGo is stronger when playing White. I wonder if komi gives it some kind of extra confidence!
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Sun Mar 13, 2016 3:29 am
by Charles Matthews
kaliya wrote:AlphaGo is stronger when playing White. I wonder if komi gives it some kind of extra confidence!
If you are going anthropomorphic, it might make more sense to say it takes the komi to be (too)
large.
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Sun Mar 13, 2016 3:38 am
by pookpooi
I try to remember in computer go mailing list discuss that the correct Komi might be 4.5-5.5, but I can't find that thread anymore.
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Sun Mar 13, 2016 1:56 pm
by Charlie
Charles Matthews wrote:kaliya wrote:AlphaGo is stronger when playing White. I wonder if komi gives it some kind of extra confidence!
If you are going anthropomorphic, it might make more sense to say it takes the komi to be (too)
large.
It's equally possible that an unfairly large Komi would weaken the bot because it only tries to win by 0.5 points with high probability. The fact that the bot's fuseki is strong, as white and black, indicates to me that the Komi is not too far off.
Personally, I think Lee Se-dol was clutching at straws when he claimed that AlphaGo struggled when holding the black stones. Before move 78, the bot was ahead by country miles - way more than Komi. Afterwards, it blundered many times in a row and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. By that time, who played first was entirely irrelevant!
Also, let's not forget that the bot won game 2. You can quibble but a win is still a win.
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Sun Mar 13, 2016 3:33 pm
by Mike Novack
Charlie wrote:....... because it only tries to win by 0.5 points with high probability.......
No, not what this (and other strong go playing programs are doing).
They make the move to have the highest probability of winning the game. They aren't trying to end up with half a point more than the opponent but to end up with AT LEAST half a point more than the opponent. That is the definition of winning.
Many of us are making an assumption that isn't true. Assuming that if (currently) ahead by X points a move that maintains that lead of X points necessarily has a higher probability of ending up at leastT a half point ahead (ie: winning the game) than some other move which instead gives up a point
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Mon Mar 14, 2016 3:27 am
by Charlie
Mike Novack wrote:
They make the move to have the highest probability of winning the game. They aren't trying to end up with half a point more than the opponent but to end up with AT LEAST half a point more than the opponent. That is the definition of winning.
You're right. My wording was careless. You have a better way of saying it.
My point still stands - we cannot assume that incorrect Komi will have a predictable effect on the bot's play. It might be fair to say it would have *an* effect on the bot's play but assuming which way it would swing would require us to understand the bot's play and we simply don't.
Re: AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol, who will win?
Posted: Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:10 pm
by RobertJasiek