How strong is it possible for most people to become?

[zedmango]

There is a large gap between what is possible and what actually happens.

I recommend looking at EdLee's classic thread So.

That 6d comment was sarcastic.

which 6d comment?

[Abyssinica]

Abssinica. June 17, 2014. "6d by 2015 or die"

I'm assuming this was a list of people's real goals.

[Calvin Clark]

Well isn't the equivalent of the "magic glasses" taking lessons with a pro and talking through your thinking process? That way the pro can look at what you're thinking and see if you're doing something completely wrong.

You'd think. And it is that way, a little bit. There are some confounding factors, as the saying goes. The first is that some pros don't care what you think. They have little patience listening your weak explanations of your weak moves. I think John Fairbairn has made a case for why that might be the situation at least for Asian pros. That's probably solvable by either finding the right teacher or being the right student. Another factor is harder to tackle. It may even at the level of qualia. At that level, I would assume everyone is using a boomerang. How could it be otherwise? So I wouldn't think to ask the right question.

[Calvin Clark]

Abssinica. June 17, 2014. "6d by 2015 or die"

I'm assuming this was a list of people's real goals.

Glad you're still with us.

[Kirby]

just to fly the flag for weight loss - I lost 2 stone a couple of years ago and have not put it all back on (just 1/2 a stone) - I'm not even that heavy. Defeatist attitudes just aren't helpful but for weight loss you need to change your habits long term.

Congratulations on your weight loss.

I've also experienced some recent success in that area (around 40 pounds, now), which is one of the reasons I've commented a few times on this topic. When I was first trying to lose weight, and started eating just salad at work, one of my coworkers told me that it's not really going to work. He said that I can't maintain a diet of just salad. Furthermore, people that lose weight fast like this by eating just a small amount are known to bounce back and gain the weight again, often ending up heavier than when they started. If I really wanted success, I should still eat normally, and just lose a couple pounds a year. I distinctly remember my thoughts when he told me this. First, I'd heard this story before. And second, I've tried losing weight slowly and reasonably - but it never worked. And I'd gained a lot of weight for the past few years.

So I thought to myself, "You know what? He might be right... But I don't care. ***k it. I'm going to go all out anyway."

So I've continued to eat salad at work - usually only about half of a serving. And I've been exercising a lot. And it's kept up for a few months now. And I see results. Will I fail like my coworker said, and gain all my weight back? Maybe. I don't know. But by telling myself to ignore the negative advice, I've been more successful with my weight than I have been in several years.

I might be wrong. But that possibility won't stop me from trying to be right.

[Abyssinica]

Glad you're still with us.

And now my osu rank is falling from #910 worldwide. Currently almost 950. Can't have everything

[daal]

Most people? Who are most people? Did they start playing go as children? Did they live among strong go players? Are they disciplined? Did their mother sing Mozart to them in the womb? Did their rabbit die? People are very different from one another. The factors that make it possible for someone to become a good go player are numerous and layered. There is no single answer.

As for me, I am convinced that starting go later in life has been a limiting factor. While being smart has something to do with go ability, I am sure that there are people who are as smart as I am but are much stronger or much weaker than me. I have been playing at 5k for a few years. Is this the highest level possible for me? Maybe. Maybe not.

[Fedya]

I still haven't reached 4 kyu.

[fishesandcats]

clearly you're posting on reddit and here.

i put a response up there but i'll put an abridged version up here.

Most people will never become a dan.
At most some of those might become 1d.
With a lot of work, maybe 3d.
Afterwards the ceiling is 6d.

The simple evidence is provided by the people who show up to Go Congress and how often the people distribution "changes".

Can you elaborate? On reddit you said that these were the finish lines based on amount of effort and pro help - here you seem to be saying that most people are incapable of getting to these goals regardless of amount of effott. Can you elaborate on the evidence from Go Congress and distribution? How does one know which tier one is in?

[DrStraw]

I think there are at least two factors at play, and possibly a third. The first two probably approximate a normal distribution, the third probably is a Poisson distribution.

The first is ability: some people have it, others don't. Most people are close to average. Only those who have it will reach the higher ranks.

The second is effort. Within each ability rank there is still an issue of how much effort one is willing to make. Only those with the most effort will reach the upper range for the ability.

The third is age at which ones starts playing. Clearly the later one starts the more effort per year is required to reach the higher levels.

I am sure all this could be analyzed if enough statistics were gathered but the conclusion is fairly simple.

Most people do not have the ability to reach a high level and so will become mired in the middle. Of those who do have the ability few will make the effort and so progress is further impeded. And of those who have the ability and make an effort, many learn too late to progress to far.

I am afraid I fall into the last category. I think I have the ability and I certainly made the effort, but I started too late.

Anyone interested in doing a research project to analyze all of this?

[fishesandcats]

The first is ability: some people have it, others don't. Most people are close to average. Only those who have it will reach the higher ranks.

Can you elaborate on what constitutes "ability"? Is this a function of intelligence?

How high can most people, with average ability, get?

The third is age at which ones starts playing. Clearly the later one starts the more effort per year is required to reach the higher levels.

That's not at all clear to me, and I am skeptical that early exposure makes much of a difference.
Research on learning languages, for instance, has found that when adults are put in the same conditions as infants (totally immersive environment, strong motivation to learn the language, not afraid of making mistakes) they actually learn faster than infants.

I am afraid I fall into the last category. I think I have the ability and I certainly made the effort, but I started too late.

What makes you think that? When did you start and how high do you think you could get now?

[DrStraw]

What makes you think that? When did you start and how high do you think you could get now?

The previous questions have no clear answer. This one is simple to answer. I started at age 21, I am now 63 and there is no way I will every regain the maximum I reached. I topped out at very close to AGA 6d (rating 5.96) about 20 years ago. I have not played a tournament in about 10 years and was (I think) 5.24 after it. I doubt I could maintain 5d if I were to play now for the simple reason that my effort is now zero. I play for fun and enjoyment only.

[often]

L19 Abridged version
reddit
Most people will never become a dan.
With no real effort put in, maybe 3k AGA
At most some of those might become 1d.
With some effort put in, eventually 1d AGA.
With a lot of work, maybe 3d.
With a lot of effort put in and possibly some teacher assistance, 3d AGA.
Afterwards the ceiling is 6d.
With major effort put in and definite teacher assistance, 6d AGA.

Like I said, it's abridged. I didn't feel like saying everything I did all over again, but the idea is there.

Can you elaborate on the evidence from Go Congress and distribution? How does one know which tier one is in?

This will be hard to demonstrate without extensive work. It's easier to see just from year to year at the Congress. Simply put, if you pay attention to the movement of people in their ranks from year to year, you realize where the tiers are.

First, the strong players room. Nobody there is ever anybody "new" that rose up through the ranks, other than the random asian kid.

Then, the 4-6d, You'll get some new comers occasionally, but most are a lock and have been there forever. Rarely will you ever see somebody new that is rising through the ranks. If they had a teacher it was when they were younger and had it for awhile. If they still have a teacher they're young.

4d is a semi transitional rank, it fits in between the 5-6d and the 1-3d tiers.

1-3d, these are the people that have probably at some point had a teacher, but they are probably staying at this rank and haven't been able to improve. and probably haven't had a teacher for a long time. You'll see a bunch of newcomers here, either kids that are rising up, people who think they deserve a dan rank but don't, or just people who have been getting stronger.

1k-4k, these are a bunch of self taughts, some have teachers but probably not for long. They're probably entrenched and have been there for awhile. If there are newcomers here they are young, the old guard has been here for awhile.

5k-10, a bunch of newbies, and old guards. not much else to say.

[fishesandcats]

This will be hard to demonstrate without extensive work. It's easier to see just from year to year at the Congress. Simply put, if you pay attention to the movement of people in their ranks from year to year, you realize where the tiers are.

First, the strong players room. Nobody there is ever anybody "new" that rose up through the ranks, other than the random asian kid.

Then, the 4-6d, You'll get some new comers occasionally, but most are a lock and have been there forever. Rarely will you ever see somebody new that is rising through the ranks. If they had a teacher it was when they were younger and had it for awhile. If they still have a teacher they're young.

4d is a semi transitional rank, it fits in between the 5-6d and the 1-3d tiers.

1-3d, these are the people that have probably at some point had a teacher, but they are probably staying at this rank and haven't been able to improve. and probably haven't had a teacher for a long time. You'll see a bunch of newcomers here, either kids that are rising up, people who think they deserve a dan rank but don't, or just people who have been getting stronger.

1k-4k, these are a bunch of self taughts, some have teachers but probably not for long. They're probably entrenched and have been there for awhile. If there are newcomers here they are young, the old guard has been here for awhile.

5k-10, a bunch of newbies, and old guards. not much else to say.

Thanks for this - it was exactly what I was looking for.

Have you seen the research on go barriers?

http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~barryp/barriers.htm

http://senseis.xmp.net/?BottleneckTheories

People seem to get stuck at certain places, 1 dan and 3 dan in particular.

So why is it that these tiers exist? What determines who can make it to the 4-6 dan tier or beyond? Why is it some people can't get past 1 dan or 3 dan? What's the typical rate of progress?

Thanks again - interested in your insights.

[often]

So why is it that these tiers exist? What determines who can make it to the 4-6 dan tier or beyond? Why is it some people can't get past 1 dan or 3 dan? What's the typical rate of progress?

There's no typical rate of progress. Some people it makes sense, some people it doesn't. Some people pick it up faster, some people don't.

However, if you put work into it, you will progress.

but.

any time you can't get any further in Go, it is because of a "deficiency" in fundamentals. as a pro once told me "if the foundation is good, you can build as high as you want".

so why can't people get past 1d or 3d AGA? pretty much that. there are other reasons that can be extremely caustic that i will not mention here. but at the very base level, it is a lack of fundamentals.

BTW, i say 1d/3d AGA because that same bottle neck occurs at different ranks else where (KGS for example).

As for "What determines who can make it to the 4-6 dan tier or beyond?" It's just simply the amount of work and effort put in. Ask any 4-6d AGA how much work they put in to get there and compare it to a 1-3d AGA. you'll definitely see a difference.