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My first thought when seeing the cut was, If this were a human we might say that Black is looking for a place to resign.xela wrote:Fascinating and very strange! KataGo doesn't agree with Elf here. What does ELF give as winrates? There's a difference between "black plays this way because it wins the game" versus "black is losing and playing desperate moves to complicate things". KataGo thinks white is 8-12 points ahead in all variations, assuming 7.5 komi.
, the second line hane. Black 4.0% (41.9k rollouts); 
, the switcheroo ponnuki, Black 1.1% (120.6k rollouts).
,the third line atari to prepare the usual ponnuki, Black 4.1% (71.8k rollouts). the fourth line cut, Black 5.3% (79.9k rollouts).
below, with a winrate estimate of 2.3% (29.9k rollouts).OK, so it's firmly in the "playing desperate moves from a lost position" camp. Hard to say that one variation is better than another in this context.Bill Spight wrote:I didn't give any winrate differences because they are misleading so close to 0 or 100%.
Indeed.xela wrote:OK, so it's firmly in the "playing desperate moves from a lost position" camp. Hard to say that one variation is better than another in this context.Bill Spight wrote:I didn't give any winrate differences because they are misleading so close to 0 or 100%.
My guess is that with perfect play by White Black is a goner. What's best depends upon White's imperfections. In the search for the margin of error for winrates, I considered using the log of the odds ratio instead. However, I decided not to bother, because it seems to me that when the winrate is near 0 or 100%, the search will be greatly affected. So I just take winrate estimates less than 10% or greater than 90% with a large grain of salt. I don't know if this matters for KataGo and point estimates, however.lightvector wrote:If you set the komi to -2.5, KataGo thinks the game is much closer to fair. It thinks black is still 0.5 points behind, which is not entirely consistent with its estimation of black in the original state being behind by 0.5, since black has just gained 10 points over its initial estimate of black behind by 9. Possibly this is due to the search now exploring significantly different lines *after* the corner sequence due to the closer winrate for how black should handle the white center group.
There is a phenomenon with chess engines that may appear with go bots, as well, that humans are not able in some positions, to apply the AI evaluations. GM Ben Finegold sometimes points out that engines may evaluate the position his is discussing as even or nearly so, but that he and other human GMs much prefer one side or the other, typically the side with an attack, because the engines know how to defend against the attack, but humans don't.It also thinks that one of white's moves on the corner saving variation is a significant mistake, white can do better if black tries to play this way. Given that at this point, KataGo should usually be quite a bit stronger than ELF, and that at least its preferences line up pretty well between the komi-adjusted and non-komi-adjusted cases, I'm inclined to distrust ELF here about what the "correct" variation is, except insofar as maybe ELF could be evaluating the winrate correctly "for itself" as Bill suggested.
should be the kick at a, and also that 
is better than the atari at b., Elf still likes the kick, with this mainline variation.
, 
makes the solid connection, and then 
pincers the two Black stones. White is playing catch-up. Perhaps we can consider this pincer a shobute.