mohsart wrote:henric wrote:mohsart wrote:@boywing
I guess that you refer to stronger than our ranks compared to the average European ranks.
I'm not sure about that. It may be that the German and UK players are weaker (I don't know). But the Finns, Czech, Slovakians, Russians, Poles, Maybe French and Dutch (this is me guessing, so neither a complete nor guaranteed to be true list) are stronger.
Firstly I don't think the above statement is correct.
So you mean to say that you're sure that Swedish players are (in general) underranked compared to average Europeans?
/Mats
That's not what I'm saying.
It is probably true, but I already said that I don't think the differences are big anyway.
I was saying that your list is wrong, in my opinion.
Here is an example of an argument based on reasonable statistics
(
http://goforbundet.se/ng/200901.pdf pp. 12-13):
In EGC 2008, for the players with GoR>2000, players from
SE gained on average 4 GoR points per game (based on 171 games)
CZ gained 2 Gor points per game (68 games)
PL gained 1 GoR point per game (70 games)
RU lost 1 GoR point per game (109 games).
Approximately one can argue that (Fig. 2, p. 12) this means that
SE players were underrated by 80 GoR points wrt average,
CZ players underrated by 40,
PL players underrated by 20
RU players overrated by 20.
As far as GoR is concerned and in this rating interval, your ordered list is wrong.
What about ranks then?
We can correct for the rank-rating differences listed in the EGD table that was mentioned,
which gives AVERAGE differences (in GoR points,
http://www.europeangodatabase.eu/EGD/Stats_Country.php):
SE:-73
CZ: +25
PL: -24
RU: -5
These numbers are not for the rating segment >2000, I believe that those numbers
must be lower at the high end of the rating list, so they overestimate the correction.
Still, the result would be expected rank differences
SE: 80-73=+7 wrt european average (so the difference is less than 1/10 stone).
CZ: 40+25=65 wrt european average (i.e. a bit more than half a stone)
PL: 20-24 = -4 wrt average,
RU: -20-5 = -25 wrt average.
So the ordered rank strength list becomes:
CZ, SE, PL, RU.
It should be clear from this discussion that the uncertainties are pretty big,
even though hundreds of games are taken into account. But IMO it is enough to conclude that
there is no empirical ground for your ordered list.
Another conclusion that should be obvious is that the rank "strengths" are not
VERY different, the differences are SMALL.
In the rating interval 1000-2000 FR, PL, CZ all gain more GoR points per game than SE, but FI
gains less.
It is easy to improve on these estimates of rank strengths, using the results
in individual games more directly, but I don't believe that the results will be
MUCH different from the above.
It is a worth while effort to monitor the differences, by studying winning
percentages:
* If the ranks and ratings are drifting apart, we could have a big problem.
* It is unfair if big discrepancies develop. They could have an effect both
on the results lists in tournaments, and on admission to top groups,
sponsored events etc.
* It is interesting in itself to understand how well the rating- and
ranking systems perform.
But I think it's wise to investigate the matter empirically, rather than
guessing.
cheers,
Henric