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Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 7:10 am
by tj86430
Gene wrote:
Game 4: Pro game. This game made the news recently, so I immidiatly recognized it.

I kinda suspected this was a trick question, but IMHO in this case answering pro when the right answer is 10k looks a lot more foolish than answering 10k when the right answer is pro (who made a massive blunder)

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 7:33 am
by daniel_the_smith
1. 12k
2. pro
3. 2k
4. 6d

OK, let's see how close I am to other people. I'm not very sure about these at all.

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 7:43 am
by RedStick
11k: looks like a game my 10k friend would play
3d: high level but I don't think it's pro. seems like the kind of low dan experimentation you see on KGS
8k: Not sure.
Pro: Each player is refusing to follow the other. When I see this many tenukis I think pro.

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 8:01 am
by Kirby
zinger wrote:
meh, I don't know what to make of game 4, seemed sort of reasonable up until that big blunder at the end.

Anyway my guesses:

1. 5k
2. pro
3. 3d
4. 1k

edit: lmao Magicwand and Kirby both think game 2 is kyu level. Somebody is waaaaaay off.


I'm probably way off. I got none right for the last game. The reason I thought game 2 was bad was because of C3 and C4, but I could be wrong.

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 8:15 am
by daniel_the_smith
I plugged everyone's answer into excel.
The average isn't very meaningful, but the mode gives:

1. 7k
2. pro
3. 1k
4. pro

The median gives:

1. 7k
2. 3d
3. 1k
4. 1k

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 8:40 am
by Jonas
Gene wrote:Game 1: 7k. Wedging with C11 looks strange, some moves just looks funny, like N4, O16, F14. Unexpected end game sequence with T8 at move 62. Slow moves, odd moves, but a lot of decent moves as well, so im gonna put this guys 2 stones lower than myself.
Game 2: 4 dan. Classy opening, certainly not someone of my strength, so its hard to assess this game for me. Several kos, good fighting spirit. Based on my observing expirience it could be someone Captain-like so lets put it at 4 dan
Game 3: 1k. Wow! White is cutting black everywhere! Althoug shape is rather good game doesn't feel right. Lets put it at 1k on his bad day.
Game 4: Pro game. This game made the news recently, so I immidiatly recognized it.


Woho are you sure about game4? My gut feeling was correct ^_^

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 9:06 am
by Gene
Jonas wrote:
Gene wrote:Game 1: 7k. Wedging with C11 looks strange, some moves just looks funny, like N4, O16, F14. Unexpected end game sequence with T8 at move 62. Slow moves, odd moves, but a lot of decent moves as well, so im gonna put this guys 2 stones lower than myself.
Game 2: 4 dan. Classy opening, certainly not someone of my strength, so its hard to assess this game for me. Several kos, good fighting spirit. Based on my observing expirience it could be someone Captain-like so lets put it at 4 dan
Game 3: 1k. Wow! White is cutting black everywhere! Althoug shape is rather good game doesn't feel right. Lets put it at 1k on his bad day.
Game 4: Pro game. This game made the news recently, so I immidiatly recognized it.


Woho are you sure about game4? My gut feeling was correct ^_^



Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 9:38 am
by emeraldemon
Guesses:
1) 6k
2) 4d
3) 1k
4) 12k

Thoughts:
1) The game has very little fighting, which makes it hard to judge. Some of the endgame moves like 62 seem too early, especially with the left side as open as it is. I don't see big mistakes I'd associate with DDK, but players around my strength (3k) don't play so passively, I think.
2) They are definitely better than me, playing tennuki if a move feels gote and handling the bottom and bottom-left carefully. The endgame seems good also.
3) Lots of fighting, a messy game that crawls across the board. A move like 151 feels more aggressive than strong. But I think these players may also be a bit better than me, so I rate 1k.
4) How good do you have to be before you stop making mistakes like this? Early game seemed solid, although the shapes weren't great.

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 9:43 am
by Stable
OK, my guesses:

1. 6k
Loads of bad moves, has a "move 2 lost the game"... got to be a kyu of some sort, but which? I'm guessing 6k because they obviously have some reading ability, but not a lot.

2. 6d
Unusual opening, but these guys definitely know their stuff. They are much better than me. Lots of moves that looked odd or bad look better on closer inspection. Are these guys better than The Captain?* I'm guessing yes, so 6d (I was wavering about 5/6d).

3. 2d
Still better than me, their joseki knowledge seems solid. Some moves seem a bit sub-optimal though, and if I can see that then they can't be super-good. Cappy would eat them on toast with maple syrup.

4. Pro/KGS 9d (That's the same under your system right? If not, I say pro.)
These guys are amazing. Interesting opening ideas, don't want to give an inch... they have to be pro or able to give a pro a damn good fight. OK, so one misses an atari, but hey we all do that.


I'm not confident in my rankings, but I am confident I've got them in the right order. Pretty good fun. Now to see what the rest of you think...

*[note from hidden above]
Obviously cappy would win, because TheCaptainalwayswins, but I predict these guys would have more points on the board.

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 9:46 am
by Stable
Wow, I'm amazed at how differently everybody sees it. I feel that some of the games are obviously this or that (others I am stabbing a bit wildly and hoping), but lots of guesses by people stronger than me say differently. Do you all feel confident about your estimates too, or do you feel they're wild stabs?

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 10:04 am
by nami
Stable wrote:Wow, I'm amazed at how differently everybody sees it. I feel that some of the games are obviously this or that (others I am stabbing a bit wildly and hoping), but lots of guesses by people stronger than me say differently. Do you all feel confident about your estimates too, or do you feel they're wild stabs?


often it seems obvious if you look on kgs while their rank is shown while playing
but like this ..
confident? nowhere near ;)

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 10:29 am
by Magicwand
i see that many people added pro and 6d
i am sure there is no professional among that 4 games.
i hope this info will increase your chance of winning.

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 11:50 am
by Aphelion
Haha another Nami fan :)

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:05 pm
by Marcus
OK, I refrain from these contests because I'm no good at judging strength. Besides, I like reading what others think the strengths are. However, even before the final game was revealed as a pro game, I thought it was likely to be so. Look at how many moves are interesting. Look how each player uses the potential of the stones. How do I best explain what I'm seeing?


First off, I do not think there are many players above 8 kyu who are even aware that :b33: at E2 can be a good approach. Once the players I know start experimenting with it, they generally do NOT use it as a probe. This move alone makes me think these players are at least KGS 1d, maybe 1-2k at the lowest, likely higher.

White's reduction starting at :w42: further leads me to believe that these players are very strong. It's not just the position of the move (on the 5th line, slightly deeper into Black's moyo than I'd be comfortable with, but not close enough to the edge to be a typical invasion), but how it interacts with Black's weakness at L3 and with White's own aji in the Q5 and P6 stones.

The fight beginning at :b61: and continuing on to the end of the game is incredible, at least once I took the time to really look at it. Up until Black's final mistake, both sides were handling this complex fight with strong, sharp moves. It feels like a very high-tension fight.

Since I'm writing this out, I might as well give some guesses, though I think my participation should not be counted, given I've read everyone else's posts first. :) I'm just doing this for fun.

Game 1: 8k

Game 1 has some interesting aspects to it. First off, the players know at least a little bit of joseki, and maybe a small amount of fuseki theory. However, there's no feel of an overall plan from either player. The players have some idea of shape, but everything feels like a local fight, with no regard for the rest of the board. Of course, I could be completely off, and this could be a high-dan game where I'm completely lost as to the reasoning behind the moves, but I'll give my own go sense the benefit of the doubt.

Some examples of moves that make me think that the game is around this level:

1) :b7: combined with :b15: - First off, I don't know if :b7: is actually joseki. The deviation might be playable, but when combined with :b15: on the 4th line, it feels like the meaning of :b7: is garbled a bit ... Black is playing too many 4th line moves, in my opinion, without having a solid plan. :b15: on its own is a little suspect ... it's not really an enclosure with the R4 stone. Perhaps this player has played a number of games using Sanrensei in their early Go career and is just starting to break into some 3-4 openings ... it feels like Black wants :b15: to be like that. I don't like it. :D

2) :w8: and :w10: - White is making decent shape and trying to get the White stones to work together. Not a total beginner.

3) :w18: - This move is fine, and shows some knowledge of joseki. I'm sure these players are at the point in their Go Path where they are experimenting with joseki and fuseki. On that note alone they could be as low as 11k. It remains to be seen how well they handle things after the opening is over and they have to deal with whatever shapes they've accumulated.

4) :b19:, :w20:, :b21:, :w30:, :w32: - Makes me sure that these players are kyu level. :w32: in particular is a move that is too small. I don't think I'd play it, and I don't know many players around my strength who would either. So, the range I'm considering from here is 6k to 11k.

5) :w68: to :b75: - The players are familiar with the monkey jump. This makes me sure they are not DDK, so I figure 8k is likely.

Game 2: 5d

Game 2 is a little harder to judge. However, there's more flow to this game. It feels stronger. Some of the moves really impress me, and the strategy and counting feels like it's a good deal above my own level. I'm particularly impressed by Black's willingness to lose the group at B11, and the two well-played ko fights back to back (I saw well played, but I also think the 2nd ko was slightly bad for White ... but I don't know any better plan at that stage of the game).

I don't think this is a pro game, though, particularly because of the 2nd ko. I can't point to anything else in the game that feels out of place, but that makes me think that maybe this is a 4d or 5d game ... the reading seems to be at the right level, particularly the exchange of :b97: and :w98:. I'll put this on the higher end and say 5d.

Game 3: 2k

Heh, this game made me laugh because of :b3: ... isn't this the wrong direction? :P I know, attempting to go for a Mini Chinese opening, I think. White counters that idea with :w6: ... I like this. Up to :b19: we can already see a good level of comfort in joseki shapes, and the running fight that begins next also shows good shape. Definitely stronger than game 1. However, at :b37: it seems like Black is getting cute. There are a number of other responses that I would likely consider much better than the footsweep here, and it feels like Black gets punished for it. Of course, it then becomes a relatively big fight. All the while D17 sits there lonely ... not that it's bad, just that the fight has distracted the players from the largest open area of the board. I'd be confident in saying that this feels like something around my own skill level, and I think some of the flow of the game (particularly moves like :b95:) is slightly above what is seen at the 4k level. Let's call it 2k.

So, to summarize:

Code: Select all

Game 1: 8k
Game 2: 5d
Game 3: 2k
Game 4: Pro


Please disqualify my entry for prizes. I peeked at other answers first. :)

Re: Strength Analysis Experiment v2 - w/ prize!

Posted: Thu May 20, 2010 12:08 pm
by Rafa
My fun attempt at it
Game 1 -> 4 Kyu
Game 2 -> 3 Dan
Game 3 -> 1 kyu
Game 4 -> 6 dan