Well, it looks like I'm going to be out. There are 5 votes for me, and the remaining votes have been split. But there is a way for me to get a 50% chance of staying in, and that is to get the other 5 votes lined up together. Then Phelan will have to flip a coin.
To accomplish this, I present 8 propositions, ordered from the most certain to least certain:
1)
I am white. I tell you all, with my hand on a copy of 'The Direction of Play'.
2)
Kirby is black. As has been mentioned earlier, naming another player's color with evidence is not something you would do if he were on your team.
Kirby wrote:Unless you're a white player betting on the probability of a random move being bad for the first move is greater than the chances of it being good;)
Sure, you can do it to pretend to be on the other team, but the damage is done when others read your post. You wouldn't do it unless you were on the other team.
Also, Kirby voted for me. He's black.
3)
The teams are divided 5 vs 5. Phelan wrote:One more would be great, so there's an even number, but we have enough to start...
Jordus wrote:I'll take the last spot if it hasn't been filled yet.
Phelan wrote:Nice.
...
Note that in one post Phelan has specifically said that he wants an even number, and indicated in another that he is pleased when he gets it. So it is 5 vs 5.
4)
Topazg is black and Daniel the Smith is white.Once we know the size of the teams, then the question is how to balance strength. Let's try to duplicate Phelan's reasoning.
The situation that Phelan faces is that he has a cluster of 4 players at the top: A 2D, two 1Ds, and a 1K. Then there is a gap: no 2Ks, no 3Ks. So he has to go 2 and 2. With me as white and Kirby as black, that leaves two possibilities:
Either Daniel is white and Topazg is black, or Daniel is black and Topazg is white. Both of them threatened earlier to kick me off:
daniel_the_smith wrote:... I'm planning on voting Joaz off since he insists on not giving us any information...
topazg wrote:...Haha, me too
...
So I stopped the purely random play. And I've made it rather clear that I am on the white team, even playing the worst possible move for black:
Joaz Banbeck wrote:I vote for pass. Who is with me?
Now Topazg votes for me while Daniel does not. So Topazg is black, Daniel is white.
5)
Fwiffo is black. The logic is the same as Topazg.
fwiffo wrote:Dangit, I thought I was going to be the first to vote off Joaz for that reason...
Then I stop doing random votes. Nonetheless:
fwiffo wrote:Joaz needs to go.
6)
MountainGo is black. Again the same logic.
MountainGo wrote:...if Joaz is just going to vote randomly I'll vote him off too.
Then I stop doing random votes. And again:
MountainGo wrote:I vote for Joaz as well. I like the idea of making it taboo to so openly game the game. It's not that I'm against doing so; I just think you should have to be sneakier about it.
7)
Marcus is probably black. He seems less certain:
Marcus wrote:I will vote for Joaz.
It's so hard after only a few moves to make a decision on who to vote off. There's very little information to go on. Joaz, however, seems to have painted a target on his back. Nobody else has given much reason for vote-off, and the game is too early to really identify dangerous players.
Being one of the later voters, he may just be piling on for concealment.
8)
Chew Terr, Prokofiev, and Jordus are white. This last conclusion is getting iffy, for it depends upon a process of elimination.
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So, to you fellow white players, whether I have identified you correctly or not: your best chance is to band together and vote for someone with all 5 votes. Then we'll have a tie.
I suggest that you vote for Kirby. There are two votes for him already, and it makes sense to get rid of the strongest opponent.
You are doomed if you do not.
(have to get in another princess bride quote!)
