Life In 19x19

Hsu Chiayuan was the runner up in the first Globis Cup (2014) to Ichriki Ryo. So for normal intents and purposes, he could be considered one of the top pros, but maybe not as strong as who Iyama has to win two games against in the Juudan.

Recalling Iyama 9p's loss to Murakawa Daisuke in the oza, this title match could morph into something very tense.

Recently, I've been monitoring the goratings.org scores closely. By losing a game to Hsu Chiayuan (#94) yesterday , Iyama lost 14 points. In comparison, by winning a game against Zhou Hexi (#44), Ke Jie only gained 2 points. Of course WHR is a whole-history system so not as simple as what I just describe. But generally speaking, if you want to maintain a very high position, you need a very high winning percentage. Iyama has been winning more than 90% of his games recently, which is really amazing. But no one in history could maintain that level for a long period of time (not even Lee Changho at this peak time). I think Iyama is still the favorite to win all 7 major titles. But his rating is about peaked. He probably will settle around #10 - #15 in the world list, unless he can make significant progress in world stage.

Two things:

Perhaps implicit in your comment, but it would also require Iyama to play more international games. While each international game he wins will typically contribute more to his ranking than games against domestic opponents, if he doesn't have many of them, their impact will be swamped by domestic games.

You're implying a limitation of the model when you say that no one could maintain a 90% win rate. The model claims that Ke Jie can win 84% of the time against Yamashita Keigo, so more than 90% against a normal basket of Japanese players. If that's not true, then something has gone wrong.

Just to be clear, I think the most reasonable guess is that Iyama's rating will decline a bit over the coming year. I suspect his current performance represents a combination of improvement and luck.

macelee wrote:Recently, I've been monitoring the goratings.org scores closely. By losing a game to Hsu Chiayuan (#94) yesterday , Iyama lost 14 points. In comparison, by winning a game against Zhou Hexi (#44), Ke Jie only gained 2 points. Of course WHR is a whole-history system so not as simple as what I just describe. But generally speaking, if you want to maintain a very high position, you need a very high winning percentage. Iyama has been winning more than 90% of his games recently, which is really amazing. But no one in history could maintain that level for a long period of time (not even Lee Changho at this peak time). I think Iyama is still the favorite to win all 7 major titles. But his rating is about peaked. He probably will settle around #10 - #15 in the world list, unless he can make significant progress in world stage.

Can I ask you the question regarding of goratings.org? Right now everyone is probably watch youtube video 'The history of the world's best Go players' that use data from goratings.org, the video has the data date back to 1974 while in goratings.org only date back to 1980, so I want to know how this video acquire data from before 1980?

I can't speak for what Remi or macelee might have done, but there is data for players before 1980. A little scraping or even manual work could create the top ten for earlier years.

What is really unfortunate is that the data is so limited for earlier years.

hyperpape wrote:I can't speak for what Remi or macelee might have done, but there is data for players before 1980. A little scraping or even manual work could create the top ten for earlier years.

What is really unfortunate is that the data is so limited for earlier years.

If only all go organization send record to this list, the algorithm is already great, the database is, well, as good as it can.

Mark April 14th on your calendar! Iyama will play the 3rd Judan game on that day and if he beats Ida Atsushi, he will hold all SEVEN major titles! Japan will be officially conquered!