Life In 19x19

So, who do we think will win? I don't think my prediction of Ke Jie will be uncommon!

Uberdude wrote:So, who do we think will win? I don't think my prediction of Ke Jie will be uncommon!

Ke Jie is strong, but the margin of his superiority is perhaps not so large that the title is his to lose. Or am I underestimating the Ke's strength?

by78 wrote: I'm curious as to how much stronger Iyama can become.

This is a very good question. Always playing those who are considerably weaker than yourself is probably not going to help you improve.

by78 wrote:Besides, there is no point for Iyama to try when he's comfortably making lots of money at home. And I think he should stay there.

by78 wrote:It's best that Iyama stayed home and defended his seven titles while winning substantial purses.

by78 wrote: I'm curious as to how much stronger Iyama can become. I think he's got some distance to go before reaching his ceiling, but to do that, he needs tougher competition, and that can't be found in Japan.

The first two statements seem to conflict with the third. Is it reasonable to think that you believe the third, and the others were just mini-trolling?

None of the Western players got past move 160 before resigning. I didn't expect them to win, but I was hoping they could put up a little better fight. Still, it's exciting to see AGA and EGA pros being included in top international competition. The only way they'll get better is by playing high level opponents.

Kim Jiseok vs Mi Yuting seems to be the premier pairing in the second round, though there are some other good match-ups as well. Which one most interests you? The GoStyle web app (results to be taken with a grain of salt, of course) recently told me I have a style similar to Hane Naoki, so I'm going to use that as an excuse to pay attention to his game with Tang Weixing.

As for predictions, I'll also stick with Ke Jie. He's certainly not a lock in a single elimination tournament, but I think he'll have at least a slight advantage over everyone he faces.

Uberdude wrote:So, who do we think will win? I don't think my prediction of Ke Jie will be uncommon!

Maybe Lee Sedol's encounter with AlphaGo will have strengthened him? I'd like to see him beat Ke Jie for a change.

by78 wrote:So, according to the data you compiled (as seen in the link you kindly provided), Iyama's record against top 20 players stands at 11 wins and 21 losses, a win rate of 34%. I don't see that as proving my opinion as unreasonable. In fact, I would argue the opposite: my opinion actually overestimates Iyama's chances.

Well, there's some fuzziness about what you're saying. "Probably wouldn't get out of the first two rounds" is, if read literally, not actually a significant prediction.

To probably get out of the first two rounds, you need to average better than 70% winning chance against your opponents in the first two rounds. Easy enough if you're a) Ke Jie, or b) have some luck with the pairings (if you draw NA/EU, or maybe Taiwan). Hard otherwise. So literally speaking, my basic prediction for almost all the players is "they probably won't make it out of the first two rounds" (though of course, someone has to win). If that's all you mean, sure, you're right. Iyama probably wouldn't[0] make it out of the first two, but neither would Kim Jiseok, Tuo Jiaxi, or lots of other players. It's a tough field: it includes the worlds' 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th(human) players plus other good players.

So, if you mean, "statistically speaking, it is more likely that Iyama would not win two straight games" that's true, and we have no dispute.

If you mean Iyama can't compete against the players here, which I read as the spirit of your original posts, then I don't see any reason for it. Look carefully at the results I posted in the other thread. He was quite often the underdog in games he lost, and his results look a lot worse when you include the oldest games, which makes sense, since he got much better over the course of his career.

You can argue whether he should really be 5th (as per goratings), 10th, 20th...but I don't think you can make a contention that he's not competitive with the field in the Ing Cup.

[0] Read this counterfactually, I'm ignoring the fact that we know the results of the first round.

wineandgolover wrote:

by78 wrote:Besides, there is no point for Iyama to try when he's comfortably making lots of money at home. And I think he should stay there.

by78 wrote:It's best that Iyama stayed home and defended his seven titles while winning substantial purses.

by78 wrote: I'm curious as to how much stronger Iyama can become. I think he's got some distance to go before reaching his ceiling, but to do that, he needs tougher competition, and that can't be found in Japan.

The first two statements seem to conflict with the third. Is it reasonable to think that you believe the third, and the others were just mini-trolling?

hyperpape wrote:

by78 wrote:So, according to the data you compiled (as seen in the link you kindly provided), Iyama's record against top 20 players stands at 11 wins and 21 losses, a win rate of 34%. I don't see that as proving my opinion as unreasonable. In fact, I would argue the opposite: my opinion actually overestimates Iyama's chances.

Well, there's some fuzziness about what you're saying. "Probably wouldn't get out of the first two rounds" is, if read literally, not actually a significant prediction.

To probably get out of the first two rounds, you need to average better than 70% winning chance against your opponents in the first two rounds. Easy enough if you're a) Ke Jie, or b) have some luck with the pairings (if you draw NA/EU, or maybe Taiwan). Hard otherwise. So literally speaking, my basic prediction for almost all the players is "they probably won't make it out of the first two rounds" (though of course, someone has to win). If that's all you mean, sure, you're right. Iyama probably wouldn't[0] make it out of the first two, but neither would Kim Jiseok, Tuo Jiaxi, or lots of other players. It's a tough field: it includes the worlds' 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th(human) players plus other good players.

So, if you mean, "statistically speaking, it is more likely that Iyama would not win two straight games" that's true, and we have no dispute.

If you mean Iyama can't compete against the players here, which I read as the spirit of your original posts, then I don't see any reason for it. Look carefully at the results I posted in the other thread. He was quite often the underdog in games he lost, and his results look a lot worse when you include the oldest games, which makes sense, since he got much better over the course of his career.

You can argue whether he should really be 5th (as per goratings), 10th, 20th...but I don't think you can make a contention that he's not competitive with the field in the Ing Cup.

[0] Read this counterfactually, I'm ignoring the fact that we know the results of the first round.

Let me clarify my remarks, which are logically consistent and in my view hardly controversial: there is little incentive for Iyama to participate in the ING Cup or most other international tournaments because 1) his playing strength is simply not competitive for him to get far, and 2) the financial incentive isn't there for Iyama, considering his earnings in Japan (against a much weaker competition) dwarfs what he could potentially earn internationally (against a much tougher field).

Therefore, Iyama should stay home.

That said, if he truly loves the game and wants to discover his true ceiling, he should play more international tournaments. But no one will fault Iyama if he simply takes the safer and much more profitable route.

by78 wrote:1) his playing strength is simply not competitive for him to get far

Neither is that of any other player. The KO format of international tournaments is just less attractive than the title-defender matches in Japan. In a one-on-one match, he is the odds on favourite against any other Japanese player. In a 5 round K.O. like the Ing Cup, he's got a 5-10% chance to win it, just like any other top 10 player. That, combined with the relatively high prize money in Japan, makes Japanese titles way more attractive financially.

HermanHiddema wrote:

by78 wrote:1) his playing strength is simply not competitive for him to get far

Neither is that of any other player. The KO format of international tournaments is just less attractive than the title-defender matches in Japan. In a one-on-one match, he is the odds on favourite against any other Japanese player. In a 5 round K.O. like the Ing Cup, he's got a 5-10% chance to win it, just like any other top 10 player. That, combined with the relatively high prize money in Japan, makes Japanese titles way more attractive financially.

I think you are reading too much into my comments. Please re-read my comments again. What precisely are you objecting to? I don't appreciate your erecting a straw man.

by78 wrote:He's the top koi in the small koi pond. But there is a big ocean out there with sharks.

by78 wrote:I don't appreciate your erecting a straw man.

The best way to avoid being "straw-manned" is to say what you mean, clearly and carefully. I'll try and help:

You think that Iyama should stay home and not play, because his chances of winning are poor. That's because:
(1) Even if he's a good match against most of the players there, it's a five round tournament, with lots of great players.
(2) He's outclassed by almost all the Korean and Chinese players there. He's an underdog against almost all of them.

I think (1) is true. It seems like maybe you think it's true too, but honestly, I can't quite tell.

hyperpape wrote:

by78 wrote:He's the top koi in the small koi pond. But there is a big ocean out there with sharks.

by78 wrote:I don't appreciate your erecting a straw man.

The best way to avoid being "straw-manned" is to say what you mean, clearly and carefully. I'll try and help:

You think that Iyama should stay home and not play, because his chances of winning are poor. That's because:
(1) Even if he's a good match against most of the players there, it's a five round tournament, with lots of great players.
(2) He's outclassed by almost all the Korean and Chinese players there. He's an underdog against almost all of them.

I think (1) is true. It seems like maybe you think it's true too, but honestly, I can't quite tell.

To 1) and 2), I also expressed a third thought: that is there is little economic incentive for Iyama to play internationally, seeing that his earnings (playing against the much weaker domestic competition) are much higher than can be had from playing Korean and Chinese players, who are stronger and younger. Therefore, he should stay home, and no one can reasonably fault him for doing so.

My last thought, a fourth one to your list, is a hypothetical one. Call it a wish. Namely, assuming Iyama hasn't yet reached his ceiling (a reasonable assumption), I'd love to see him play more internationally so we can find out his true ceiling. It's just a wish and nothing more. Iyama in all likelihood will not play more internationally for reasons 1), 2), and 3). Again, I don't fault him because they are reasons good enough.

What should be clarified is Iyama does play internationally. He just doesn't play as much as many people (and probably himself) would like due to the title matches he plays in.

oren wrote:What should be clarified is Iyama does play internationally. He just doesn't play as much as many people (and probably himself) would like due to the title matches he plays in.

Now that Iyama has all seven titles, he doesn't need to play league games for any of them. He only needs to defend them. The title defense games can perhaps be re-scheduled slightly to accommodate a few more international games. Again, I'm not saying that Iyama should or will participate (see reasons I listed in previous posts), but it would certainly be nice to see him do so, if only to satisfy our curiosity about his playing strength vis-a-vis Korean and Chinese pros.

Can someone explain the Lin Lixiang - Na Hyun game? I don't see how black is alive after he makes his final move in the corner, yet white resigned immediately thereafter. Blind spot? What am I missing?

Thanks.