2016 Pro qualification tourney

[Krama]

Can we have statistics on all japanese vs chinese/korean players from one of the big databases in the last 15 years?

[Kirby]

Can we have statistics on all japanese vs chinese/korean players from one of the big databases in the last 15 years?

Goratings.org is based on historical data from a large database of games (here's a nice visualization, by the way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRvlyEpOQ-8).

However, it's true that Goratings.org will be influenced by the database that it uses - with a different set of games, you'll get a different ordering.

[wolfking]

Let's me rephrase the by78's statement like this: "Those young kids are probably strong enough to rival top 100 pros in China. On a good day, some of them might even beat a top 20, and I seriously doubt that the #1 Ke Jie can give them 1 stone handicap." We're talking about Chinese kids, right, so why don't compare them with Chinese pros instead?

We might have some pretty good measure of the strength of the new crop in this case. One of the forum members on Chinese go website weiqi.tom.com has kept a ranking of international go players for many years and his database is much more extensive than the Go4Go database used by Remi. His forum handle is nmcgw and the "nmcgw ranking" is sometimes quoted on the home page of weiqi.tom.com. In his ranking thread he also tracks the success rate of predictions by his ranking and goratings.org's ranking and his usually comes out ahead.

After this year's pro qualification tournament he published a ranking of all 128 participants in the final stage here http://weiqi.sports.tom.com/2016-07-17/ ... 65363.html. The top ranked new pro Liu Yuhang has 2372 ranking points which will put him at 203rd position in the world. That will be slightly ahead of Jiro Akiyama(2370 points) in nmcgw ranking and about 24th in Japan according to goratings.org. If we assume this ranking is more or less accurate then Liu beating a top 10 Japanese pro might be considered a upset but not a particularly huge one.

For reference, goratings.org has Liu Yuhang at 376th in the world with 3080 rating points. That would be about 70th in Japan under goratings.org ranking. The nmcgw database has at least 109 games on Liu while Go4Go database has 23 games on record.

[kimidori]

Ok, if we use that database, according to the other topic viewtopic.php?f=13&t=13425, Chen Hao, no 100 in China in June, also have a rating of 2372. So I think we can say that top 100 in China is about to equal to top 20 in Japan, I don't see where my statement is wrong. And I also think that it is very reasonable for a new Chinese pro to be at such level.

Ke Jie is about 370 points stronger than that, does it mean 1 or 2 stone handicap approximately?

[by78]

LOL, I brought up the fact the Japanese pros are weaker, raw nerves were inexplicably touched. A bunch of zealous cheerleaders came out of the woodwork to rebuke me using ad hominem attacks, accusing me of being "trollish" and so on.

Then a few fellow forum members furnished ranking data and offered cogent arguments why my original statement was not unreasonable.

And now the cheerleaders, henceforth shall be known as Japan-ONLY-fans, or JOFs for short, are as quiet as crickets. The silence is deafening.

So let me stir the pot a bit and revise my original comment as follows:

"A lot of theses kids are DEFINITELY as strong as many top-50 Japanese pros, if not stronger. Quite a few of them ARE strong enough to take out a top-10 Japanese pro."

There, let me hear from you JOFs again how you don't like my 'tone', or how trollish I am. Bring it because I don't give a flying fock if I've touched a raw nerve. It's your problem: you are just too damn sensitive!

Did I get my message across? Let me again make it absolutely clear to you JOFs: Japanese pros are WEAK compared to their Korean and Chinese counterparts. I mean, they are, just, WEAK.

In case our JOFs still need further clarification, the word 'weak' is defined by the Merriam-Webster dictionary as follows:
1. Having little physical power or ability, not strong.
2. Having little power or force.
3. Likely to break or stop working properly, not able to handle weight, pressure, or strain.

With the above definition in mind, please allow me to again repeat this for the benefit of JOFs: Japanese pros are WEAK compared to their Korean and Chinese counterparts. I mean, they are demonstrably WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, WEAK, compared to Korean and Chinese pros.

And finally, as I have advised before, my dear precious, fragile, sensitive JOFs, please take a deep breath and sod off!

[Uberdude]

by78, are you talking to me?

[by78]

by78, are you talking to me?

Yes, if you are a HOF.

[Uberdude]

wolfking, you looked at the top pro from the qualification tournament Liu Yuhang, what happens if you look at the bottom (number 20?) pro, how about the 50th placed-player? by78 said

A lot of theses kids are probably as strong as many top-50 Japanese pros, if not stronger.

When referring to a hall with hundreds of kids I interpreted "a lot" to mean more than just the best player or best few, but a lot of them, a sizeable minority, perhaps 50. Can by78 clarify how many he meant by a lot?

[Uberdude]

by78, are you talking to me?

Yes, if you are a HOF.

What is a HOF?

[by78]

by78, are you talking to me?

Yes, if you are a HOF.

What is a HOF?

Ooops, I meant 'JOF'.

[by78]

wolfking, you looked at the top pro from the qualification tournament Liu Yuhang, what happens if you look at the bottom (number 20?) pro, how about the 50th placed-player? by78 said

A lot of theses kids are probably as strong as many top-50 Japanese pros, if not stronger.

When referring to a hall with hundreds of kids I interpreted "a lot" to mean more than just the best player or best few, but a lot of them, a sizeable minority, perhaps 50. Can by78 clarify how many he meant by a lot?

Your interpretation was largely correct. I'd go so far as to bet large sums on the best 20 of these Chinese kids if they faced off against top-50 Japanese pros in a round-robin.

I'd remain very confident if the number were expanded to top 30 of these Chinese kids.

In fact, I'd be still somewhat confident if the best 50 among them were to face off against top-50 pros from Japan.

[Uberdude]

by78, are you talking to me?

Yes, if you are a HOFJOF.

Well, as I prefer to watch Korean and Chinese games (though do follow Iyama and Ichiriki), and agree Japanese pros are weaker than Korean/Chinese ones (though probably not to the same extent as you), and have been to study Go in China and Korea but not Japan (yet, I'd like to go sometime), "Japan only fan" would seem an inappropriate moniker for me.

[wolfking]

Ok, if we use that database, according to the other topic http://www.lifein19x19.com/forum/viewto ... 13&t=13425, Chen Hao, no 100 in China in June, also have a rating of 2372. So I think we can say that top 100 in China is about to equal to top 20 in Japan, I don't see where my statement is wrong. And I also think that it is very reasonable for a new Chinese pro to be at such level.

Ke Jie is about 370 points stronger than that, does it mean 1 or 2 stone handicap approximately?

kimidori, the ranking you quoted was Chinese Weiqi Association's official ranking which only includes Chinese players. They are all variations of Elo ranking but the ranking points scales are different. Chen Hao has 2443 ranking points in nmcgw version and is ranked 80th among Chinese pros. But your claim is still valid assuming the accuracy of nmcgw ranking. Liu Yuhang's 2372 would land him at 107th in nmcgw ranking among Chinese pros and 20th among Japanese pros.

[wolfking]

wolfking, you looked at the top pro from the qualification tournament Liu Yuhang, what happens if you look at the bottom (number 20?) pro, how about the 50th placed-player?

Uberdude, that "top pro" is somewhat ambiguous. Liu Yuhang(刘宇航) is the top rated new pro in nmgcw rating, but he actually went 9 and 4 and finished 8th in the tournament. One of those losses was to another new pro He Yang(何旸), who finished at 14th, but was only number 52 in rating with 2099 points.

The bottom new pro (finished at 20th) is Zhou Yuchuan(周玉川) who is 34th in rating with 2130 points. He is 1 point behind Takagi Shoichi 9p in nmgcw rating and would be number 142 in Japan. The 50th in rating is Chen Xinyuan(陈新元) with 2102 points and would be number 158 in Japan.

The lowest rated new pro is Yao Xiaotong(尧潇童) at number 66 with 2081 points and would be number 178 in Japan. At the other extreme is Chen Yichun(陈一纯), the highest rated player that did not qualify. He has 2256 rating points (5th in rating) but won only 8 games(1 less win than Liu Yuhang) out of 13 and finished 28th! He would be number 68 in Japan, 3 points behind Takemiya sensei. So there is a chance of Takemiya failing the pro exam, consider the brutal schedule of the tournament

[idontgetit]

I doubt takemiya would be able to become a pro in China right now. He's probably too old to have enough endurance to compete in such a cut throat environment playing over a dozen games with a bunch of kids.