Life In 19x19

Posted: **Sat May 25, 2019 11:31 am**

sorin wrote:
Bill Spight wrote: We have to remember that winrate estimates are based upon players making mistakes. Otherwise they would be 0% or 100% and go might be less interesting. Furthermore, because of self play training, LZ's winrate estimates are based upon LZ's errors, which may be of a different kind than human errors. (In fact, we know that bots and humans make different kinds of errors. ) So top humans could be right that White is more likely to win the game, based upon human errors, while LZ is also right that Black is more likely to win the game, based upon LZ's errors.
Sure, if we are talking fuseki I wouldn't take the relative AI winrate estimates of some moves too literally, but here are are at move 160 and not a lot of open areas remaining, so it's the kind of position where top humans are normally confidently estimating the result within 1-2 points I would say.

Based on my experience, I think they are a bit overconfident.

From what I understand they are confident that white is winning.

Humans do fine with fuzzy evaluations.

LZ is also pretty confidently estimating that black is ahead (70+%).

One of these two groups is wrong. Which one?

One of them would be wrong if they were both talking about perfect play, which neither of them can do. To be fair, I don't think that either is claiming that White or Black will win with perfect play.

It is possible that LZ running on my computer is missing something about the upper-left seki, that is a likely possibility, so I would be curious if others can analyze the position at move 160. Or if some pro is willing to play against LZ from that position...

Well there are a couple of ways to test LZ's estimate. One is to have LZ play against itself a lot of times. If LZ estimates a Black winrate of 70%, that means that White should win around 30% of the time, and one of those games may be the best approximation of perfect play. Another is to explore the game tree using LZ to find possible errors that self play might not reveal. For instance, in Beat Elf! ( viewtopic.php?f=15&t=16641 ) Elf gave Black an 85% winrate 4 moves before Black resigned.

OTOH, such an exploration may reveal assumptions that humans share that LZ refutes.

Posted: **Sat May 25, 2019 3:56 pm**

sorin wrote:It is possible that LZ running on my computer is missing something about the upper-left seki, that is a likely possibility, so I would be curious if others can analyze the position at move 160. Or if some pro is willing to play against LZ from that position...

LZ see the upper-left seki, and actually, it's willing to let the black stones die.

After playing a couple LZ vs LZ starting from 161 K5, I guess LZ see four interesting area for black :

- it feels that the E5 group is harassable
- there's also a weakness around O5
- the Q15 stones are a liability for white.
- B11 is also big.

On the contrary, black groups are very stable

Posted: **Sun May 26, 2019 7:39 am**

This is a very interesting question. I’m under the impression that zero style bots still do not play the endgame as well as top human players. If that’s still true, I wonder if this game is far enough along that this effect is relevant.

Posted: **Sun May 26, 2019 9:55 am**

hyperpape wrote:This is a very interesting question. I’m under the impression that zero style bots still do not play the endgame as well as top human players. If that’s still true, I wonder if this game is far enough along that this effect is relevant.

This is counter-intuitive to me, my understanding is that the closer the game is to the end, the more accurate AG-style bot estimations should be, whether the bot was trained zero-style or initial-AG-style, since the outcome from which they do the actual learning (the result of the game) is fewer steps away.

Posted: **Sun May 26, 2019 10:44 am**

sorin wrote:
hyperpape wrote:This is a very interesting question. I’m under the impression that zero style bots still do not play the endgame as well as top human players. If that’s still true, I wonder if this game is far enough along that this effect is relevant.
This is counter-intuitive to me, my understanding is that the closer the game is to the end, the more accurate AG-style bot estimations should be, whether the bot was trained zero-style or initial-AG-style, since the outcome from which they do the actual learning (the result of the game) is fewer steps away.

But -- and this may be a big but --, by the time that the average gain per play is less than 3 pts., top humans can play (almost) perfectly to the end, while bots still make probabilistic estimates.

One thing that bots seem not to do that humans do is to guard against the possibility of their own errors. For instance, if one bot leaves a group killable, even by a 10 kyu human, while it tries to gain a point or two somewhere else, its bot opponent does not usually seem to kill the group. If it has overlooked a good play that the opponent finds, that could result in a lost game. A human would just nail the win down.

Posted: **Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:37 am**

Kono (black) doing well in Honinbo game 3, o8 seems to be the big direction mistake, https://home.yikeweiqi.com/#/live/room/18718/1/16155667. Here is first day's play. I wonder if Kono will sacrifice his stones for now or attempt to pull them out (Yike bot says sac is fine).

Posted: **Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:25 am**

A convincing win for Kono, who kept his lead from the first day and cryised to victory. Iyama now faces kadoban.

Posted: **Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:22 am**

Uberdude wrote:A convincing win for Kono, who kept his lead from the first day and cryised to victory. Iyama now faces kadoban.

Too soon?

Iyama won by half a point.

Cheers,
Vesa

Posted: **Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:45 am**

Oops, I got confused by the Yike Chinese UI and a long pause! Here's the game:

So I think c12 could be the start of the giving Iyama chance to comeback, if instead he cuts at k13 then by attacking the top right white group (using peep at p14, though m18 means that's not actually sente) black should be able to turn the top left centre area to dame, whereas in the game after f15 Iyama made a nice box with his potentially weak group in yose which is always nice. The bot says with c12 it's still very confident of a black win, but bots can play out a close endgame accurately, whereas going for a more decisive pressing of advantage to reduce chance of a slack yose loss could be wiser for a human. Hard to balance the risks involved.

Posted: **Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:26 am**

Uberdude wrote:So I think c12 could be the start of the giving Iyama chance to comeback, if instead he cuts at k13 then by attacking the top right white group (using peep at p14, though m18 means that's not actually sente) black should be able to turn the top left centre area to dame, whereas in the game after f15 Iyama made a nice box with his potentially weak group in yose which is always nice.

Sorry, at move 141, when Black plays c12, I cannot find a peep at p14. There is a peep at m18, but I can't follow what you are saying.

The bot says with c12 it's still very confident of a black win, but bots can play out a close endgame accurately, whereas going for a more decisive pressing of advantage to reduce chance of a slack yose loss could be wiser for a human. Hard to balance the risks involved.

Well, they can play out a close endgame accurately, and, OC, they ordinarily do. But that depends upon accurate reading. At move 141 I kind of doubt that is the case, without very powerful hardware. Consider the last gainful play in this game, Black 289. The game record gives a variation where Black plays a 0 pt. sente first, and the bot gives Black a winrate estimate of 90%.

OC, there is nothing wrong with the play, but even at this stage of the game the bot's evaluation sucks big time. That does not inspire confidence. (Not a komi mismatch problem, either, as White wins with a 7,5 komi, too.)

Posted: **Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:39 am**

Re alternative for c12, here is the gist of my plan (p14 was typo for h14):

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bc $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X . . . . . . . . X . . . . . | $$ | . . . X O . . . O X X . X O X X X . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . O , O X . O O O X . . | $$ | . . X . . . . . 6 . O X O . X . X O . | $$ | . . . . . . . 5 . 3 4 O O X . X X . . | $$ | . . . . . . 7 . . 1 O . . X X O . X . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . O X X . X O O O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . 2 . O X . . O X O . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . X O O X . X X X O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . O O O X . . . X X O . | $$ | . . O O . . . . O O X O X O O O X O . | $$ | . . X O X X X X . O X O . . . X O . . | $$ | . O O X . X O X . O X . O . O . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O X . O X . O X . . . . . | $$ | . . O , X . . O X O X X X O O O O . . | $$ | . . . O X . O . X O X O O X O . X . . | $$ | . . . . X . . . X O O O . X X X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

However, the fly in the ointment is the m18 weakness which means white doesn't need to take gote at j15. Black 9 only threatens to cut 4 now unimportant stones so white has defend the k16 push-and-cut in sente and can go on the offensive with 10. However, I don't think black's middle stones will die (particularly if white connects in reply to j12 atari with a-b-c next so maybe that will be a ko) as they can run to the left or bottom and white's group isn't alive either. So probably everyone lives (but white living doesn't seem trivial) and the entire area is dame, instead of 20+ point white territory like in the game.

Click Here To Show Diagram Code: [go]$$Bc $$ --------------------------------------- $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ | . . . . X . . . . . . 6 7 X . . . . . | $$ | . . . X O . . . O X X 8 X O X X X . . | $$ | . . . X . . . . O , O X 9 O O O X . . | $$ | . . X . . . 0 . . . O X O . X . X O . | $$ | . . . . . . . 5 . 3 4 O O X . X X . . | $$ | . . . . . c . . . 1 O . . X X O . X . | $$ | . . . . . . . . a O X X . X O O O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . 2 b O X . . O X O . . | $$ | . . . , . . . . X O O X . X X X O . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . O O O X . . . X X O . | $$ | . . O O . . . . O O X O X O O O X O . | $$ | . . X O X X X X . O X O . . . X O . . | $$ | . O O X . X O X . O X . O . O . . . . | $$ | . . . . X O O X . O X . O X . . . . . | $$ | . . O , X . . O X O X X X O O O O . . | $$ | . . . O X . O . X O X O O X O . X . . | $$ | . . . . X . . . X O O O . X X X . . . | $$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | $$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Posted: **Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:14 am**

Uberdude wrote:Oops, I got confused by the Yike Chinese UI and a long pause! Here's the game:

For some reason, L19/Chrome won't let me download *this* game. It's inline, though, so I just copied it Just in case it happens to someone else.

Take care.

Posted: **Fri Jun 07, 2019 1:42 am**

Ferran, assuming you got the http 414 error that's because the eidogo player attempts to download the game content as the parameter of a http GET request, and the L19 server has been configured to have a length limit on that shorter than this sgf file content with all the commentary/variations.

Posted: **Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:18 am**

Uberdude wrote:Ferran, assuming you got the http 414 error that's because the eidogo player attempts to download the game content as the parameter of a http GET request, and the L19 server has been configured to have a length limit on that shorter than this sgf file content with all the commentary/variations.

That... hurts.

Yes, that was the case. Until I tried to reply, I thought the sgf where files, not inline content.

Thanks. Take care

Posted: **Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:29 am**

Honinbo game 4 in late middlegame, here's some commentary courtesy of MiniGo which I switch to because LZ misread a critical ladder. (Please excuse ?? encoding problem of prior Chinese commentary)

Update: Iyama closed out the win.

Life In 19x19

Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)

Re: Following Iyama Yuta (no world ranking discussions)