Following Nakamura Sumire

[pajaro]

I found this article in twitter:

https://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/etc/writer/ ... um=twitter

Google translator gives a decent translation, and I more or less understood it.

It has been discussed recently what makes a top player a champion or a forever candidate. Cho U comments about Sumire's win against Zhou Hongyu 6-dan in a recent international game. According to Cho, Sumire was in a desperate position, but she keep fighting and won the game. Yes, Zhou made a mistake, but you have to be there to take advantage of it.

[Toukopouko]

About the use of old and new games in the algorithm, I'd like to explain something better:
from what I read in the paper, all games taken into account have the same weight in the result of the algorithm. goratings.org is based on that paper.

but perhaps only games newer than some time are taken into account when running the algorithm. Again, I don't know this kind of details, and again, sorry for any mistake in my English.

Ok. I think what may help you understand it: Goratings (or WHR) is not only about calculating the current rating. It is about calculating a rating for every single day of a player's career. If you navigate to a player's profile (eg. Cho Chikun's), you can see a graph on top of the page. That's all derived by WHR.

To produce that, it of course needs to take into account both older and newer games. They are given equal weight (ie no game is negletted or treated less important). However of course when you calculate a rating for 1975-01-01, the games that took place at around that date have more importance to the rating at that day (compared to games that happened in 2020's). And If you calculate a rating for 2022-01-01, then recent games have more importance than games that happened 30 years ago. Isn't it just logical?

To sum it up: when they say that "all games taken into account have the same weight in the result of the algorithm", the result they are referring to isn't just the current ratings. It is all ratings at all days of the player's career. Because that's the actual result of the algorithm. Even if we just mainly follow the current day's ratings.

[Elom0]

I know she lost against Fujisawa Rina in the international but I still think she can win the Meijin, although I think it's only about 10% chance Sumire wins. Fortunately for Fujisawa I'm not sure how she'll handle her first title match, but I must revise my statement. Nakamura is already as strong as Fujisawa was in 2014. If this was 2010 or 2014 or 2018 she'd have been the second strongest female pro in Japan, about Choi Jung's level at the same age, and Choi Jung is obviously a Japanese Honinbo League, Japanese Meijin League, and Japanese Kisei S-League player, capable of winning any of the titles, today, about as strong as Shibano Toramanu, today, so it's officially not cringey to make predictions anymore. Given that in seven years perhaps only Ichiriki and Shibano will be stronger than her at that time, we may speculate whether we'll see another teenage Meijin in 2029! Or maybe the first teenage Honinbo?

Fujisawa Female Meijin 2-0 56%, 72.25%
Fujisawa Female Meijin 2-1 28%, 21.75%
goratings, mamumamu
Nakamura 2 dan 2-1 9%, 4.25%
Nakamura 2 dan 2-0 6%, 2.25%

[pajaro]

I'd like you to be right. Sumire put up a good fight against Rina, but I still think that Rina will win 2-0. Experience is important, and in this case it might be the main deciding factor. The gap in strength exists, but is not very wide. Rina, btw, lost to Ueno Asami. What must be inside her head?

About your predictions for the future and her strength today: to begin with, at 10 years old, she was stronger than all those players you mentioned. This is obvious. I am not saying that this means that in 7 years she will also be stronger than Shibano at 17, and a possible Meijin. I think that she has a bright future (again, obvious), but she has to work hard to make it happen. But she has also shown that she has the right qualities.

[CDavis7M]

Surely experience helps, but the women's match seems more ordinary day to day than the Dog & Pony show that Iyama hosts across the country every few months.

I think Iyama has a bigger step up against his challenger than Fujisawa does against hers. If you read the news articles there's all sorts of picture taking and hand shaking they do. Meanwhile, the women's challenger is taking the same commute to the Kiin. Probably eating the same lunch too.

Anyway, seems like a women's challenger has less opportunity to be psyched out.

[pajaro]

Dog & Pony show... that's a good way to put it. Indeed, Iyama is comfortable with 2-day matches and all the paraphernalia that comes with it. The challenger has to learn how to deal with it. I don't think they have lunch together, but I saw how everybody (players, commentators, time keepers...) took the same train to go back to Tokyo. It's a small world after all.

Even if the Meijin games look like regular games, they aren't. Maybe Rina can focus on the game easily, but this is a new situation for Sumire. She has shown that she can be focused too, but let's see what happens. I'd love to be proven wrong and see the match go to the 3rd game.

[John Fairbairn]

There seems no obvious way to devise a scale to compare the rigours of one title match over another. Apart from the format of each event being different, each event is affected by the people in it. We can easily imagine, for example, more fuss being made over Sumire then even Iyama. Or Tiger Woods over whoever the world No. 1 golfer now is.

But we can draw a broad distinction between two groups of event which are so different that it becomes really a case of apples and pears.

Traditional prestige events like the Kisei are sponsored by newspapers. They do it to get full rights to the matches. That means, unless they deign to allow rival journalists in (which they often don't), reporting remains largely in-house. there is relatively little in the way of a media scrum.

In more modern times, non-media companies have entered the scene. They want publicity. They DEMAND a media scrum. This is the case with the Women's Meijin, where the giant Kamachi group wants a constant media presence for its hospitals, care homes and educational facilities. They like this nationwide, but it also goes down well in Hakata (Fukuoka), an area which is growing in self-esteem lately, even switching to use the local dialect on tv.

Are media scrums stressful. I've been in hundreds, so I'd say yes, though for go players not very much. As a go player, you are not often likely to run the risk of saying the wrong thing (or the right thing and having distorted by a sensationalist reporter), nor will photographers try to position you in compromising pictures. Nevertheless, there are strains. The notoriously misquoted "I don't like go" of Cho Chikun referred (as he himself explained) not to the game of go, but to the media circus, and in particular the need to kowtow and grovel to sponsors or local mayors and the like.

Having to struggle to sleep overnight in a two-day battle is a well attested major pressure, of course, and the lack of sleep is not limited to the night in the middle of the match. The night before is a problem, too. Typically, on the eve of the match, there will be a huge party hosted by the local dignitaries and the players will be expected to give speeches. There may also be autograph and fan-writing sessions.

Travelling to venues is not usually a problem for the players, but can be a headache for the organisers, such as when Takemiya and Kobayashi had to be sat far apart in the same bullet train. Or when a players says he will make his own way to the venue, and is delayed. Or (in the case of a famous shogi incident), a player doesn't like the board being used and so another one has to be sent on the overnight train from Tokyo to Hiroshima. It is tempting to infer, from such cases, that some players wage psychological warfare at these times. What if (heaven forfend) one lady were to say crushingly to her opponent: I like your dress - I had one like that last year.

After all, what it boils down to can be summed up in the words of (I think) chess-master Tarrasch: It's not enough to be a good player. You also have to play well.

[pajaro]

After all, what it boils down to can be summed up in the words of (I think) chess-master Tarrasch: It's not enough to be a good player. You also have to play well.

I agree with this. There are people who can play well, and people who can compete well. Those people aren't always the same.

I'd like to add something.

If you ask players who are NOT playing, what event do you find more stressful, the Kisei or the female Meijin, there may be different answers.
If you ask players who are playing (any game, any event), what do you find more stressful, the Kisei, the female Meijin or your own game, there is only one answer.

In the end, Fujisawa vs. Nakamura will be apples or oranges or whatever, but that's what it is. We can compare, or chat, or wait for the blood. But for the players, whatever happens in other cases is not important.

[Elom0]

I'd like you to be right. Sumire put up a good fight against Rina, but I still think that Rina will win 2-0. Experience is important, and in this case it might be the main deciding factor. The gap in strength exists, but is not very wide. Rina, btw, lost to Ueno Asami. What must be inside her head?

Well, in Japanese Female tournaments Fujisawa Rina has been clearly beyond Ueno Asami, but outside of Japanese Female tournaments Ueno being stronger has been the norm recently, so I don't think it would affect Fujisawa so much . . .

. . . About your predictions for the future and her strength today: to begin with, at 10 years old, she was stronger than all those players you mentioned. This is obvious . . .

Are you sure? I guess I must be very bad at this sort of thing since I've seen no evidence whatsoever that she's stronger than any of the players. The only counterpoint to that might be the statement from the head of her Korean dojang but unless he actually taught Choi Jung, I don't think that statement should be taken at face value. Every teacher would think their student is more impressive than another one at the same age that they never properly knew at the time. Okay, well there's another counterpoint, Iyama Yuuta's statement. But he didn't imply that she was that much stronger than him at the same age, and his statement could also be interpreted as meaning he's confident she wasn't weaker than him since it wouldn't be surprising for him to make a humble statement while being polite to the young genius. This is the person who told Umezawa (at the time) Yukari that if he's lucky he hopes might win a title or maybe two and look what happened.

So yes she's a genius but is not even in the same universe as Shin Jinseo or Kie Jie, at least in my perception, or comparable at all to Shin Minjoon or Byung Sangil, as you seem to imply. Ichiriki seems a bit above her in potential; she seems to be at exactly the same level of ability as Iyama and Shibano, which is enough to challenge for an international title in your late twenties to early thirties, or something like that, probably if she keeps working as hard as she has been before. Although now I'm worried that my impression all this time has been wrong and that I've been underestimating her a little and now you've exposed my ignorance, ! I'll concede Choi Jung seems moreso comparable in ability to Yu Zhengqi and Cho U (the international competition in his day wasn't what it is now, mainly thanks to the emergence of strong pros from the Beijing-controlled part of China) than Iyama and Shibano so I guess the head of the Korean dojang was right. Although by the time she's at her peak there's no reason to think that the competition wil still increase so it will be way more difficult to win an international title than when Iyama Yuta made the LG finals. Considering she'd probably be one of only 4 or so Japanese pros playing at an international level it looks bleak for Japan, although Korea won't be doing much better)

[pajaro]

. . . About your predictions for the future and her strength today: to begin with, at 10 years old, she was stronger than all those players you mentioned. This is obvious . . .

Are you sure? I guess I must be very bad at this sort of thing since I've seen no evidence whatsoever that she's stronger than any of the players.

At 10, she was pro. The other players weren't. That's all. My analysis wasn't deeper than that.

I can't judge anyone's strength based on games I watch. I am not strong enough. I just see results, evolution... things like that.

[CDavis7M]

I don't usually follow the Tsurulin channel on YouTube because it's beyond me but I do follow them on Twitter and I saw that they reviewed Sumire's 6 games in the league.

https://youtu.be/Ur17rdCvcIQ

https://youtu.be/TcQ4u6BnmaQ

[pajaro]

The A tournament of the Honinbo is about to start.

Sumire qualified to play it. In the first game, she is going to play Kono Rin 9-dan, probably her strongest opponent so far. May 2nd is the day.

BTW, Nakamura Shinya 9-dan (Sumire's father) qualified too. What a game if the draw had allowed it.

[pajaro]

The game with Kono Rin 9-dan in the A tournament of the Honinbo happened today. Sumire, with black, lost by 6.5. I watched the game in WBaduk. I thought that Sumire was playing well, not having a lot of problems. But she was a bit short in territory. Actually, that's a big problem, after all... When Akira lost to Zama sensei in the Honinbo, he said "that's not an opponent you can beat in your first try". Same here.

A few days ago, in the Meijin, Sumire beat Yamada Shinji 6-dan. This was the second game of the C prelim, so still a looong way to go. Now, in the B prelim, she has to play Yang Chia Jung (Yo Kaei) 8-dan. Taiwanese player, brother of Yo Kagen 9-dan.

[bugcat]

> she is going to play Kono Rin 9-dan, probably her strongest opponent so far.

You mean in the Honinbo? Or in a long game?

If I recall rightly, Sumire played against Iyama in the Shin Ryusei. Or am I misremembering?

[pajaro]

If I recall rightly, Sumire played against Iyama in the Shin Ryusei. Or am I misremembering?

Oh... you are right. She played Iyama in the first round.

But it was a fast game. We can call Kono Rin "her strongest opponent so far in a serious game".

Also, this post

https://twitter.com/asahi_igo/status/15 ... 0333092865

agrees with me. Perhaps the Shin Ryusei is not considered an official tournament?