Gérard TAILLE wrote:This time I quite agree with you Bill
Before temperature drops to 4 black plays in sente:
$$B
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . 3 4 1 . O |
$$ | X X 2 5 6 . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . 3 4 1 . O |
$$ | X X 2 5 6 . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
It now appears that the following sequence may be dominant play for White.
$$B
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . 3 4 1 . O |
$$ | X X a . 2 . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ -----------------
$$ | . . 3 4 1 . O |
$$ | X X a . 2 . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
However, White can possibly reach the same ko position by playing at
a when the temperature is above 2 but below 2.5. This sequence does not affect your argument below.
when temperature drops between 2 and 2.5 white continue in sente:
$$W
$$ -----------------
$$ | . 2 B 1 B . O |
$$ | X X W B W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$W
$$ -----------------
$$ | . 2 B 1 B . O |
$$ | X X W B W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
but here is the point. Can white gain something, even if the following capture of the ko by black is sente ?
From a theorical point of view it seems possible.
Assume white waits until we reach the temperature 2+ε, I mean the temperature of the smallest point above temperature 2.
Then the following sequence will take place:
$$W
$$ -----------------
$$ | . 2 B 1 B 5 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$W
$$ -----------------
$$ | . 2 B 1 B 5 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]

takes point 2+ε

connects

takes point at temperature 2
As you can see, with this strategy white can gain ε points.
In any case, without any calculation, when seeing the position
$$B
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B . B a O |
$$ | X X W 1 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$B
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B . B a O |
$$ | X X W 1 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
white can answer by the safe "a" move but, undoubtely white might in certain circumstancies, be confident that black cannot really lose another move by playing at "a" even for a far larger ko.
That means that, from a theoritical point of view you can assume that this possibility allows white to gain say ε points (in practise ε may be equal to zero but sometimes ε may be greater than zero).
For clarity, here is the position before

.
$$Wc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B . O |
$$ | X X W . W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B . O |
$$ | X X W . W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]
The number of prisoners is equal.
Because of the absence of ko threats, Black cannot make a ko for the life of the group.

takes the last move before the temperature drops to 2, gaining 2+ε. Our model environment assumes a sufficiently large number of simple gote at temperature 2, followed by a sufficiently large number of simple gote at a slightly lower temperature, etc.
Suppose that Black takes the ko in the following sequence.
$$Wc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 5 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 5 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]

connects.
Black has gained 2 points on average in this exchange. White now plays in the environment, taking a 2 point gote. We estimate White's gain from doing so as 1 point. So our estimate of White's gain, starting with

is 2+ε - 2 + 1 = 1+ε.
Note that this estimate is the same as the one if Black took a simple 2 point gote instead of this ko.
Suppose now that

takes a play in the environment and White wins the ko, and then Black plays in the environment again. Both Black plays gain 2 points, because there are plenty of 2 point plays in the environment.
$$Wc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 5 O |
$$ | X X W . W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 5 O |
$$ | X X W . W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]

gains 2 points, on average.
White's expected gain from this sequence is 2+ε - 2 + 2 - 1 = 1+ε, the same as above.
Now let

take the ko but

play in the environment, and then

wins the ko with sente.
$$Wc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 7 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 7 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]

elsewhere,

connects.
White's expected gain from this sequence is 2+ε - 2 + 2 - 1 = 1+ε, still the same.
OC, this is the same as if there were a simple 2 point gote on the board instead of the ko.
----
Now let's use my original model of the environment as a set of simple gote, each gaining g
i, such that g
0 ≥ g
1 ≥ g
2 ≥ . . . . Let g
1 = 2 and

takes g
0.
$$Wc Sequence 1
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 5 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc Sequence 1
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 5 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]

connects.
White's expected gain is g
0 - 2 + g
1 - g
2/2 = g
0 - g
2/2.
$$Wc Sequence 2
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 5 O |
$$ | X X W . W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc Sequence 2
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 5 O |
$$ | X X W . W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]

elsewhere
White's expected gain is g
0 - g
1 + 2 - g
2/2 = g
0 - g
2/2, the same as above.
$$Wc Sequence 3
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 7 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc Sequence 3
$$ -----------------
$$ | . B B W B 7 O |
$$ | X X W 4 W . O |
$$ | . X O O O O O |
$$ | . X X X O . . |
$$ | . . . X O O O |
$$ | . . . X X X X |
$$ | . . . . . . . |
$$ -----------------[/go]

elsewhere,

connects.
White's expected gain is g
0 - 2 + g
1 - g
2/2 = g
0 - g
2/2, the same as above.
All same same.
The result is the same as if the ko were a simple 2 point gote.