Life In 19x19

In July 2014 Trout posted a thread with world rankings by Dr Bae Taeil.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=10594
I was curious about the ages of the players.
Ke Jie, ranked #12, was only 16! That was all I knew about him.
His page on Sensei's Library was only a single line(http://senseis.xmp.net/?KeJie:v1).
(He wouldn't get a page on the Big Wiki for two more years...)
No one knew what was coming...

He won his first international title, the Bailing Cup, in January 2015.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=9960

That December he won the Samsung Cup:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=12253

Then only a few weeks later won the MLily Cup:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=12012

And now the Samsung Cup for the second time in a row:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=13372

He is 19 now. So how long will Ke Jie reign?

emeraldemon wrote:In July 2014 Trout posted a thread with world rankings by Dr Bae Taeil.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=10594
I was curious about the ages of the players.
Ke Jie, ranked #12, was only 16! That was all I knew about him.
His page on Sensei's Library was only a single line(http://senseis.xmp.net/?KeJie:v1).
(He wouldn't get a page on the Big Wiki for two more years...)
No one knew what was coming...

He won his first international title, the Bailing Cup, in January 2015.
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=9960

That December he won the Samsung Cup:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=12253

Then only a few weeks later won the MLily Cup:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=12012

And now the Samsung Cup for the second time in a row:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=13372

He is 19 now. So how long will Ke Jie reign?

It's impossible to predict the future, but I think Ke Jie has a chance to eventually match or surpass the great Lee Sedol.

Shin Jinseo has a potential to steal this position, he's also 16 and ranked in top ten already.

Actually Ke Jie is not so young to be impressed. Fan Tingyu, for example, won Ing Cup at 16. And Lee Changho at his 19 had a lot of International titles and was without any doubt the number one. I would suggest that only hard work can keep him on top. His main strength is mental. Seems like he never panics and after some lost game never lose his power.

Someone has to point out that many young shooting stars in any activity burn out and don't last very long. How many recent top stars win top tournaments in their 40's? Compare with Cho Hun hyun or FUjisawa Hideyuki.

Someone has to point out that many young shooting stars in any activity burn out and don't last very long.

Plus there's always an ever-increasing chasing pack. The smart long-shot money in China at the moment seems to be on 13-year-old Tu Xiaoyu, as far as I can tell. He hasn't won a title yet but has appeared in the Weiqi League this year.

Neofelis wrote:Actually Ke Jie is not so young to be impressed. Fan Tingyu, for example, won Ing Cup at 16. And Lee Changho at his 19 had a lot of International titles and was without any doubt the number one. I would suggest that only hard work can keep him on top. His main strength is mental. Seems like he never panics and after some lost game never lose his power.

I have to disagree. Fan won the ING at 16 but has gone without another international major title since then. He can't be compared to Ke Jie, who already has won four at a tender age of 19 years and three months. As for the great Lee Changho, he has only two international titles under his belt by age 19 (Tong Yang Cup in 1992 and 1993). Lee Sedol had only one international title when he was the same age as Ke Jie. So Ke Jie has had a sizzling start, one not seen in a very long time.

Given the number of one-hit wonders (players who have won just one international title) and the depth of the current professional field, what Ke Jie has accomplished since 2014 definitely sets him apart from his peers. It isn't just about international titles either, as his performance in Chinese A-League demonstrated great consistency as well. He has shown he is improving while the rest of the field is chasing after him, instead of being like Fan Tingyu or Mi Yuting who won early in their age and had spurts of excellence but nonetheless fell back to become just one of the top-tier pros.

With the competitive landscape and the constant influx of young talents, the key will be to see if Ke Jie can maintain his level by mid-20s. Shi Yue, for example, was able to stand out and be the top player in China for a few years running (2012-14), but could only manage one world title, and now at 25, is seeing his window of adding another one rapidly closing.

It's funny that we talk about longevity like it's inevitable that a player can't last at the very top. There have been a number of players who have peaked early and not lasted, but there are also counter-examples. Lee Changho was the best in the world until somewhere around age 30, Lee Sedol was the best until his late twenties, and both of them stayed competitive even for some years after they were at the very top. Of course, players like that are rare almost by definition.

Maybe something changed, and there'll never be another world #1 who's more than 25, but we will only know for sure with hindsight. Ke Jie might end up having a short reign, but he looks like he has as good a chance as anyone.

I we will never again see the days when no one under the age of 40 could ever become Meijin. Oh, for the good old days!

TheCannyOnion wrote:

Neofelis wrote:Actually Ke Jie is not so young to be impressed. Fan Tingyu, for example, won Ing Cup at 16. And Lee Changho at his 19 had a lot of International titles and was without any doubt the number one. I would suggest that only hard work can keep him on top. His main strength is mental. Seems like he never panics and after some lost game never lose his power.

I have to disagree. Fan won the ING at 16 but has gone without another international major title since then. He can't be compared to Ke Jie, who already has won four at a tender age of 19 years and three months. As for the great Lee Changho, he has only two international titles under his belt by age 19 (Tong Yang Cup in 1992 and 1993). Lee Sedol had only one international title when he was the same age as Ke Jie. So Ke Jie has had a sizzling start, one not seen in a very long time.

I just wanted to show that there were players who showed amazing results at the very young age and their future were very different. Maybe it wasn't a good example. Also in few last years there were many young players from China who won an international title and after that their results were not so impressive. Ok, Ke Jie won some more but it should not be the number one indicator of how long he can stay on top. Only his games can tell us how strong he is. So far there still a lot of work to overcome Park Junghwan since his last three games this year against him were 0:3 in Park's favor. Also if he lose to Chen Yaoye the Bailing cup 3:0 it won't look cool for Ke. Especially taking into account that he lost to Chen two years ago the battle for Tianyuan title. So it would be 2 lost finals to Chen. I wouldn't say that he is stronger after that.
Anyway let's see. So far Ke Jie goes only up. No reason to stop for him

I know what I said in the other thread, but personally, I am very hopeful that Ke Jie can really start a new era, and help develop new ideas with the help of bots like zen and alphago.

Although competition is undoubtedly much tougher than it used to be, at the same time, there are also more international tournaments these days than 20 years ago. I look forward to the future of go.

So after winning the Samsung and Agon cup, Ke Jie still has a busy December.

First up is the Bailing cup final where he is 2 games down against Chen Yaoye (who was on top form back in August/September where he also convincingly beat Korean wonderkid Shin Jinseo 2-0 in the semis whilst Ke Jie only beat not-so-top-player Won Sungjin 2-1) so has to win all 3 games on 14th, 16th and 17th to prevail: viewtopic.php?p=214205#p214205.

Next is the Chunlan Cup quarter/semi-finals on 20th and 22nd: viewtopic.php?p=214420#p214420. He plays Chinese #2 or 3 Mi Yuting, and if he wins that then the winner of Kim Jiseok versus young rising Chinese Gu Zihao.

Uberdude wrote:So after winning the Samsung and Agon cup, Ke Jie still has a busy December.

First up is the Bailing cup final where he is 2 games down against Chen Yaoye (who was on top form back in August/September where he also convincingly beat Korean wonderkid Shin Jinseo 2-0 in the semis whilst Ke Jie only beat not-so-top-player Won Sungjin 2-1) so has to win all 3 games on 14th, 16th and 17th to prevail: http://www.lifein19x19.com/forum/viewto ... 05#p214205.

Next is the Chunlan Cup quarter/semi-finals on 20th and 22nd: http://www.lifein19x19.com/forum/viewto ... 20#p214420. He plays Chinese #2 or 3 Mi Yuting, and if he wins that then the winner of Kim Jiseok versus young rising Chinese Gu Zihao.

I think the kid is running himself haggard facing these top flight opponents. To borrow a parlance from American College Football, Ke Jie's "strength of schedule" is unimpeachable; I can't think of another player who has faced so many highly ranked opponents and has done as well.

The downside is that soon fatigue will catch up with him.

TheCannyOnion wrote:The downside is that soon fatigue will catch up with him.

He does at least appear to recognise his busy schedule and is trying to reduce it by not participating in the Chinese preliminary for the CJK+AI tournament.