Page 1 of 2

How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:21 pm
by Bill Spight
Game 21

As usual, we assume area scoring with 7½ pt. komi.

After :b31: Elf estimates a winrate of 91½% for one player. Which player is it?
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White to play
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . O X , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . O X . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
Enjoy! :D

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:44 pm
by TelegraphGo
My first instinct: White white white. It looks so much more active and white has the hugely important sente. B's side is pretty big, though, and the variations I'm reading aren't very clear. This one is particularly interesting, because I feel like I can play out the whole game so far.
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Who knows for the first 7 moves
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . 2 . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , 1 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 9 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . |
$$ | . . 5 , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
Not sure on who took which corner first but almost no doubt that this was the position after move 10. So far I would guess 50/50 or B slightly ahead.
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc Order might be a little different
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X 0 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O 8 9 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 5 . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . 7 , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
W's moves all look ok, so certainly not more than 65% for B yet. Actually, I thought that B wasn't supposed to allow W to get this cut and take the corner like they did in game. Is W is already winning? My joseki knowledge is kyu-level.
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc End at the double hane.
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O . 2 . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X 5 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X 1 . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 O X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . 6 X , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 7 . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 9 . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . B . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
This is where the big swings happen, so let's look closely. The exchange of 3 for 4 isn't too shabby for B, but in the corner B wishes they didn't have to play 1 and 5 protecting the same cut, rather move 1 down a few lines. I approve of 6 and 7. 8 is maybe a little aggressive, instinct tells me to try to ladder or loosely net 3 instead, but I can see why 8 might be better than those. 9 is the logical response. 10 is the reasonable continuation, since B has so many weaknesses nearby, but B's double hane seems to work really well. You'd think that W should win with double atari, but B's plan is to sacrifice the one stone to capture the middle stones in a ladder.
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wm32 White to play
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O X 5 . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . 6 O X 3 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X 4 . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . O X 1 . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . X 2 . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
This instinctually should be disaster for W - but actually on evaluation even this doesn't look THAT bad. Thus when W plays a more modest move:
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wm32 White to play
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . O X , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . 1 O X 2 . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
I'd expect W to be far ahead. The only moves I see that could be big mistakes seem to be B's, other than W's aggression 28 and 30, but it's hard to convince myself that those are such horrid mistakes. So I'm going to go with my first instinct, but I'm actually really eager to see the AI analysis of this one.

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:34 pm
by dfan
My ten-second opinion is Black; knowing modern AI play, it's just too easy for me to imagine Black scooping out all the territory at the top and White not being able to make it up.

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:57 pm
by Uberdude
Someone has made order mistakes in this joseki variation.

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:26 pm
by Knotwilg
My no-LZ analysis favors Black


Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:32 pm
by Bki
I'm worried about the double atari white has, but by the meta-argument of "a pro wouldn't have missed that", it's probably not as worrying for black as I thought at first. It would probably be a trade of white ruining black's territory while black ruin white's wall.

Then, white has pushed from behind and been hane-ed repeatedly. The white chain at Q15 is a bit short of liberty and at the very least black can get forcing move taking advantage with that. Which means that getting something living on wide open top side shouldn't be hard for black. Thus, white wall looks scary, but it's only that, look. Still if black invade white can expect some of the center in exchange but reducing the center shouldn't be hard, and black can get a lot of territory on the side.

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:32 pm
by Gomoto
White should have sticked to its initial plan. I definitly imagine myself commiting the same mistake. White decided to put more weight on a general rule and did not acknowledge the concrete position enough. Lost a game today myself in a similar way, although I did not wrongly prevent a "ponuki". In my case it was the general rule "connecting" that stopped me from playing the proper move. Both in this game and in my game the efficiency of the "general rule" move and the "practical" move was not evaluated correctly by the failing players. In any case my blunder was much bigger than the pros, about 10 versus 5 points :). (Intuition should have trumped formal knowledge, perhaps I learn to trust my intuition even more versus formal knowledge in cases where actual counting seems too difficult for me.)

Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Wc White to play
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . O . . O . . . . . . . . X . . . . |
$$ | . X . O . . . . . O . . . . . , X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O O . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . X X X . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . X . X O O . . |
$$ | . X O O . . . . . . . . . X O . . . . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . . O . . . . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . . O . . |
$$ | . . . X O . . . . . . . . . . O . O . |
$$ | . . . X O . . . . . . . . . O . O X . |
$$ | . . . X a . . . . . . . . X X O O X . |
$$ | . . b O . . . . . , . . . X O X . X . |
$$ | . . . . . O . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
After I evaluated the white double hane stone at C3 will survive, I was wrongly satisfied with white connecting at a and dismissed the clearly superior white b.

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:05 am
by bayu
This game looks vaguely familiar, but I can't recollect from where. It feels like white knows what he's doing, so white should be ahead. I'd probably play at a next to fix the shape and black has to take care of his cutting points so that white keeps sente.
Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bc White to play
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . O . O . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . , X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X O . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X X . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O O X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . X O X . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . O X , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . a . O X . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . O X . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . O . . . . . . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 5:08 am
by Knotwilg
LZ analysis - confirms my no-LZ analysis but with a very interesting main line

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:04 pm
by Kirby
I like white

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:43 am
by John Tilley
Bill - Thank you for winding the clock back for me! I was just getting into Go in the mid 1960s and I bought the 3 volume Nihon Kiin Fundamental Series in the summer of 19xx and they sent me a free copy of Kido which included this game. I can still name the players, year and round of this title match after some 52 years. A very similar opening occurred two games later of course in that match.
Its the 1967 Honinbo Title Match Game 3 between Sakata (White) and Rin.
Best Wishes - John

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:05 am
by Bill Spight
John Tilley wrote:Bill - Thank you for winding the clock back for me! I was just getting into Go in the mid 1960s and I bought the 3 volume Nihon Kiin Fundamental Series in the summer of 19xx and they sent me a free copy of Kido which included this game. I can still name the players, year and round of this title match after some 52 years. A very similar opening occurred two games later of course in that match.
Its the 1967 Honinbo Title Match Game 3 between Sakata (White) and Rin.
Best Wishes - John
This game made a big impression on me. :) I forget when I first saw it. I wasn't ready for Kido, when I was in Japan. Igo Club was more my speed. I remember that someone took me up to meet the editor of Go World in the Chuo Kaikan. I'm pretty sure it wasn't Bozulich. Maybe Dowsey or you?

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:45 am
by John Tilley
Bill's starting position after Black 31 with an advantage of 91.6% to one player is fascinating, however in the actual match there must have been a lot of stress and doubt for Black. White has pressed down and is building on a grand scale and Black must have had some serious doubts. I am sure Bill will do a summary of this game eventually, but note it gets top billing for White in a selection of his games published in 1970 - 24 pages, 18 figures and 44 explanatory diagrams.

In real life facing some opponents across the board must be really tough, because of their reputation. No names in the "Hide" button - just their respective ages.
White was 47 years old, a 9 dan and "one of the pre-eminent geniuses of Go history" <to quote Bozulich>, Black was just 25 years old.


Hopefully we will see some more AI analysis.

Bill - I think you meant to say that either I or Stuart Dowsey introduced you to Mr Yosida, who was editor of the English language magazine "Go Monthly Review".

John Tilley

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:53 pm
by Bill Spight
John Tilley wrote:Hopefully we will see some more AI analysis.
Oh, you bet! :)
Bill - I think you meant to say that either I or Stuart Dowsey introduced you to Mr Yosida, who was editor of the English language magazine "Go Monthly Review".

John Tilley
Thanks, I had forgotten Yosida's name, as well as the magazine's. ;) The memory came back to me when I read your note. IIRC, one of you took me upstairs at the Kiin to meet him. He gave me a complimentary copy of Go Monthly Review. I didn't subscribe to it, but I did take Igo Kurabu. Later I subscribed to Kido, which I till miss.

Re: How is your positional judgement? Game 21

Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:03 am
by xela
A bit late to the party here (so many other interesting conversations on this board over the past two weeks!), but since the official solution hasn't been posted yet, I'll hazard my own guess before peeking at others'.
So my first impression is that white's influence at the top looks huge, whereas black is relatively confined. But then (still glancing at the position without reading), black's area looks more like cash in the bank, while white's wall has a few cutting points so it isn't really that thick. But once I start to read out specific moves, it looks like black has more than enough weak spots too. White P8 for example could do a fair bit of damage. If both sides get cut to ribbons, I think black stands to lose more.

So all up, I prefer white.