2010 Leisure White Paper
Posted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 12:58 am
There is some indication in the Japanese government's latest 2010 Leisure White Paper as to what may be happening in the western go world.
The annual survey of how Japanese people (urban people of 15 years or older) spend their leisure time began in 1976 and reached a peak of 12 million who called themselves go players in 1981. However, there was doubt about the methodology in the early days, as clubs apparently used inflated figures to boost local council grants. Once that was ironed out, the figures settled into a more believable, but generally declining, pattern, from 7.1 million in 1984 to 2.5 million in 2008. However, in that period, the Hikaru no Go effect was marked, and the figures bucked the trend during the early 2000s (the comic ended in 2003 - the peak during the HnG boom was 4.8 million in 2002).
Last year, however, for the 2009 survey, the methodology changed yet again to count internet play for the first time, and the recorded go population suddenly shot up from 2.6 million to 6.4 million. In 2010 there was a slight dip to 6.1 million but this still supports the 2009 figure.
In detail by age group, the new methodology also shows that the 20s and 30s age groups, which up to 2008 were apparently almost approaching vanishing point, are in fact fairly avid players once the internet is included. Go is still an old man's game but the Grumpies also appear to have become largely iGrumpies.
Reflecting this back on the western scene, we may hypothesise that here too the apparent decline in go activity is more to do with internet players becoming relatively invisible. If the Japanese experience is being copied here, we can estimate that the go population as recorded by association/club memberships is some 60% higher in practice - or maybe much more, as we had fewer clubs to start with. This still does not bode well for our associations and clubs, however, or for the sense of community in go. Given, though, that there are probably lots of players out there somewhere in the ether, perhaps we will see the development of online communities - for example, kaya.gs may light the kindling furnished by kgs. The current torpor of L19 and the rise of me-me-me blogs are not encouraging signs, but things change fast on the internet.
The annual survey of how Japanese people (urban people of 15 years or older) spend their leisure time began in 1976 and reached a peak of 12 million who called themselves go players in 1981. However, there was doubt about the methodology in the early days, as clubs apparently used inflated figures to boost local council grants. Once that was ironed out, the figures settled into a more believable, but generally declining, pattern, from 7.1 million in 1984 to 2.5 million in 2008. However, in that period, the Hikaru no Go effect was marked, and the figures bucked the trend during the early 2000s (the comic ended in 2003 - the peak during the HnG boom was 4.8 million in 2002).
Last year, however, for the 2009 survey, the methodology changed yet again to count internet play for the first time, and the recorded go population suddenly shot up from 2.6 million to 6.4 million. In 2010 there was a slight dip to 6.1 million but this still supports the 2009 figure.
In detail by age group, the new methodology also shows that the 20s and 30s age groups, which up to 2008 were apparently almost approaching vanishing point, are in fact fairly avid players once the internet is included. Go is still an old man's game but the Grumpies also appear to have become largely iGrumpies.
Reflecting this back on the western scene, we may hypothesise that here too the apparent decline in go activity is more to do with internet players becoming relatively invisible. If the Japanese experience is being copied here, we can estimate that the go population as recorded by association/club memberships is some 60% higher in practice - or maybe much more, as we had fewer clubs to start with. This still does not bode well for our associations and clubs, however, or for the sense of community in go. Given, though, that there are probably lots of players out there somewhere in the ether, perhaps we will see the development of online communities - for example, kaya.gs may light the kindling furnished by kgs. The current torpor of L19 and the rise of me-me-me blogs are not encouraging signs, but things change fast on the internet.