Climate change / global warming

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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by Bill Spight »

burrkitty wrote:The 3-deep clause is a... concept? rule? teaching aid?... Basically, it works like this. One should not reference your unique work with a paper that you cannot "prove" 3-deep. So for any scientific paper that you wish to use in your own work you must "prove" it.

1. You read the paper.
2. You read all the references of that paper
3. You read all the references of the references of that paper.

That is how you prove a paper 3-deep.

As I was taught, the 3-deep clause is intended to minimize suspect material. This is because of how peer-reviewed science works.


So, considering overlap, for one reference you need to read on the order of 1,000 references. ;) More power to you! :)
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by hailthorn011 »

I believe that humanity has had an impact on climate change, but I also believe that the Earth goes through cycles where the weather changes. Like with global warming. Let's face it, those icecaps weren't going to last forever. Those glaciers weren't going to remain frozen forever. That much is obvious.

So can humanity limit its' impact on things like this? Doubtful. We've become far too reliant on things that are harmful for the world in general.

We may not see the devastating effects in our lifetimes. But eventually, we're heading towards an age where the Earth will be uninhabitable. Stephen Hawking has even said we're eventually going to need to be a space faring people.

That's just my two cents. Take it with a grain of salt. :salute:
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by burrkitty »

It can be torturous. It is also, as I said, a teaching aid. The objective which is to teach students of science not to take anything at face value as "The Truth" until one has read many many many many papers on the subject. I did it and to some extent I still do. Not to completion, because it starts to really get outrageous in some papers as was pointed at with some humor, but I try and read all the relevant ones. Yes, that means I have read and will read in the future THOUSANDS of scientific papers. I call that due diligence AKA "Doing my research before I run my mouth." Most of the time it keeps me from looking like a idiot. Since knowledge is never wasted, I have never had a quarrel taking a couple weeks to read a hundred papers. It takes time to get advanced degrees for a reason. Despite the jokes they don't let you just BS your way through it.
I would ask ANY PHD among us how much research they did for those letters. It is probably more than most people think.

...Although, climate modeling is a young branch of its parent science. Less than 20 years, I think... There may not be the great body of research that exists in the more established branches.
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by shapenaji »

It seems that a useful statistic might be the breadth of the "3-DEEP"

If we assume that each paper has 30 references (on the low end, just for the sake of the calculation), then the max 3-DEEP stat we could have is 900.

On the other hand, we have a lower bound of 60 (our paper references 30, in the second level, paper 1 references the other 29 + 1 additional, paper 2 references 28+2 additional, etc...)

This statistic might be very useful for determining just how "incestuous" a community is.
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by ez4u »

burrkitty wrote:I did not. I started at IPCC and the Kyoto Protocol...

Sorry about that! The "you" in my post was not igoneko but rather the collective authors of the preceding 150 or so posts. My bad (as usual). :blackeye:
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by topazg »

In my experience, a paper with 30+ references often has at least one incorrect reference anyway, another few that don't support the original paper's point in the way the author thought it did, and references to papers that are old enough that the views within them have been superceded by more recent research that found something somewhat different.

Even then, there are enough papers (including poor quality ones) that you can cherry pick your references to support one side of a debate quite nicely, even applying a 3-deep rule.

This isn't restricted to obscure journals either, this has been found repeatedly with Science and Nature, amongst other high ranking / high impact journals (in fact, a rather scathing paper was published in Nature a couple of years ago).
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by burrkitty »

shapenaji wrote:This statistic might be very useful for determining just how "incestuous" a community is.


It might, but certain subjects invariably reference what i am going to call "milestone" papers. That is, papers that are considered of such good quality or completeness that they are considered a standard and referenced hundreds of times. For example, in the study of global tectonics there is Bird 2003. One almost cannot do research (or take a class) in that field without hitting that paper. It is so preeminent that even a general Google search (as opposed to Scholar) of bird 2003 will yield that paper as a top hit! Things like that quickly lift the apparent "incestuous"-ness of a research community. However, the other side of that is that you may be reassured that a milestone paper like Bird 2003 dose represent in some way the general scientific consensus on the subject (or else it would not be so heavily referenced)

Also, science has almost completely moved out of the realm of individual "gentleman-scholars" and in to the arena of collaboration. For example, the recorded observation of the Higgs-Boson has again confirmed the Standard Model of particle physics. Surely that work is worthy the Nobel. It is of monumental importance to that science! To whom do we award it? The Nobel prize has a limit of 3 persons to share an award but there were dozens of researchers at CERN working on it. It is very easy to see "incest" when everyone works with everyone else. That dose not invalidate the science.
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by burrkitty »

topazg wrote:In my experience, a paper with 30+ references often has at least one incorrect reference anyway, another few that don't support the original paper's point in the way the author thought it did, and references to papers that are old enough that the views within them have been superceded by more recent research that found something somewhat different.

Even then, there are enough papers (including poor quality ones) that you can cherry pick your references to support one side of a debate quite nicely, even applying a 3-deep rule.

This isn't restricted to obscure journals either, this has been found repeatedly with Science and Nature, amongst other high ranking / high impact journals (in fact, a rather scathing paper was published in Nature a couple of years ago).


Your quite right. Personally, research more that 15 years old should be considered suspect in a dynamic research field. As for Science and Nature... While it is a cachet to have a paper published in them and I would definitely not turn it down because it is a sure path to funding... they publish hot new bleeding edge stuff to appeal to the readers with drama. Frequently... well... the science often doesn't hold up well under scrutiny. Those two specifically are a bit more like the pop charts than the symphony. My opinion, YMMV
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by golem7 »

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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by topazg »

burrkitty wrote:Your quite right. Personally, research more that 15 years old should be considered suspect in a dynamic research field. As for Science and Nature... While it is a cachet to have a paper published in them and I would definitely not turn it down because it is a sure path to funding... they publish hot new bleeding edge stuff to appeal to the readers with drama. Frequently... well... the science often doesn't hold up well under scrutiny. Those two specifically are a bit more like the pop charts than the symphony. My opinion, YMMV


FWIW, I agree with you on those ;)

golem7 wrote:http://scienceprogress.org/2012/11/27479/


This is the kind of statistic that always grates somewhat.
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by shapenaji »

topazg wrote:This is the kind of statistic that always grates somewhat.


I mean I agree that quantity of opinion does not necessarily reflect quality of opinion, but there's a certain rebellious streak in the deniers which seems to equate paucity of opinion with brilliance.

Also, who are these people denying climate change? And how do they manage to maintain a faculty position with a publishing rate of only slightly over 1 paper a year?
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by Conanbatt »

shapenaji wrote:
topazg wrote:This is the kind of statistic that always grates somewhat.


I mean I agree that quantity of opinion does not necessarily reflect quality of opinion, but there's a certain rebellious streak in the deniers which seems to equate paucity of opinion with brilliance.

Also, who are these people denying climate change? And how do they manage to maintain a faculty position with a publishing rate of only slightly over 1 paper a year?


There is way more consensus on global warming than man-made global warming. The former is quite easier to measure, and harder to dispute. You just take many temperatures and you can only go wrong on the compilation of them or calculation. Its basis is observation.

But Climate change or global warming itself is not a reason to do anything. Before the 70´s there was global cooling, and it wasnt such a major deal.(The video I posted contains a short footage by a metheorologist or the sort, that says that increasing C02 emissions might reverse the cooling process. That is, as a solution.)

The debate heats up because it points to C02 and some of the biggest companies in the world (car, oil industries). Blaming C02 is a model, not a verifiable truth. You cant really make a mirror-earth with non-polluting fuels and see that it doesnt have global warming.
And you cant also easily falsify it, without interpretation of data. In the awful truth, Al Gore makes a chart that roughly matches C02 levels in the atmosphere with registered temperatures showing correlation. In the Global Warming swindle, they say those charts exist as Gore showed them, but that they are separated by a large span of time (like 100 years or more, cant recall).
I guess that is the kind of statement a lay man could check out, as those charts should be accesible. But the Nobel prize has been already awarded, and the Global Warming Swindle was shunned, regardless of that fact.

So the cause is surely debatible.

Then you have the consequences , which are incredibly difficult to measure or predict. Even if the top meteorologist or climate scientist in the world told me to my face that 1 degree would cause x and y and z, I wouldnt put my hand in the fire for the statement. Weather is the origin of the Chaos Theory. It is too unpredictable.
I can believe that things will change. Thats easy to believe. And for the better ? hardly, because even if there are more fields and more spaces to farm, as a society we are quite adverse to change and that is costly.
In the Global Warming Swindle they do mention that centuries ago , England use to have vineyards that are impossible to today´s weather.
A case for it being better can be made, because it is just as fickle and speculative as a case to make it worse.

As it stands to me i see:

There is a climate change.
There is a predominant agendable model to explain that change.
The consequences of the climate change are unknown.

The debate has created a moral rule or ethical conduct, that the middle class as I see it looks badly upon people not "caring for the environment".

Another thing i dont like about this whole climate ordeal is that suddenly, a huge monetary and political decision is driven(alledgedly) by the scientific community.
As a society we make almsot no choices listening to our scientists, and why is this one all the sudden so important?
I resent the process of decision as well. If we are going to do what the scientific community suggests, we would have to change everything. From eliminating sugar-sodas that have proven to cause obsesity, to restrict cattle to grow more grain, to a million different things.

Hey, im all up to devise a society that makes decisions closer to science than to democracy, making decisions on what we know rather what we guess collectively. But we are not on that system or decided to make it that way for this subject as a community. So i dont like to be told "we have to do this this way, the scientist told us so, and the scientist speak truth"
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by HermanHiddema »

golem7 wrote:http://scienceprogress.org/2012/11/27479/


A quick note on this graph posted by golem7: It is labelled wrong. The 24 papers do not "reject glocal warming", they "reject man-made global warming". The other 13,926 papers all conclude that global warming is man-made. The 24 mostly suggest other causes of warming.
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by HermanHiddema »

Conanbatt wrote:There is way more consensus on global warming than man-made global warming.


See previous post.
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Re: Climate change / global warming

Post by topazg »

HermanHiddema wrote:A quick note on this graph posted by golem7: It is labelled wrong. The 24 papers do not "reject glocal warming", they "reject man-made global warming". The other 13,926 papers all conclude that global warming is man-made. The 24 mostly suggest other causes of warming.


I admit to not knowing all 13,950 papers (in fact, I'm familiar with only a fraction of the total I suspect), but figures like this always give me suspicion. Unless it's a review paper, I struggle to believe that there are that many papers assessing "whether climate change / global warming" is man-made. I would have thought most of the papers would have been looking at a specific aspect in a specific situation based on specific data?

If that is the case, it's really poor science simply to play the numbers games. Quantity of collected data / quality of collected data / quality of the analysis of the collected data all come in to play on every single paper, and on top of that there will be a large number of papers that simply can't be compared against each other piece for piece.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a climate change denialist at all, I just dislike poor science / poorly presented science on either side of any debate.
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