New ranking algorithm.

[Solomon]

[Ootakamoku]

Here is same algorithm run on KGS high dan games (53000 iterations). The algorithm subtracts expected rank standard deviation from the calculated rank, so as show the highest possible ranking for each player with same confidence. However its quite frustrating to see nonochan and maybe GOZIRA hig up in the rankings. Looking at their records they did win alot of the games, but I never considered them to be that strong. The other suprise entry high up in the list is roln. In case on roln I suspect it might have to do with the fact that his games are mostly blitz, which has higher variance. I have no idea if I should try to take that into account tho, as I have the time settings available for all games. Maybe I should start with checking what the relative variance is between slow games and fast games on kgs.

[Ootakamoku]

I guess I probably should take into account the fact that the stronger the record shows the player to be, the more proof is needed as there are fewer strong players. I kinda knew this problem would come up sooner or later.

[tj86430]

Here is same algorithm run on KGS high dan games (53000 iterations).

Compared to this list:

http://www.gokgs.com/top100.jsp

Your list contains places 1,7,9,13,14,16,17,20,22,29,37,42,43,74 and 90 from the list above + 35 unlisted players. 85 of the top 100 do not appear on your list. Why is that?

[p2501]

Here is same algorithm run on KGS high dan games (53000 iterations).

Compared to this list:

http://www.gokgs.com/top100.jsp

Your list contains places 1,7,9,13,14,16,17,20,22,29,37,42,43,74 and 90 from the list above + 35 unlisted players. 85 of the top 100 do not appear on your list. Why is that?

As I understood his list, it shows the strength of players at their peak. Which is different from the top100 list from kgs.

[tj86430]

Here is same algorithm run on KGS high dan games (53000 iterations).

Compared to this list:

http://www.gokgs.com/top100.jsp

Your list contains places 1,7,9,13,14,16,17,20,22,29,37,42,43,74 and 90 from the list above + 35 unlisted players. 85 of the top 100 do not appear on your list. Why is that?

As I understood his list, it shows the strength of players at their peak. Which is different from the top100 list from kgs.

This may very well be. Nevertheless it surprises me that 35 of the 50 "all time" best are no longer in top 100, whereas 85 of current top 100 are not within the 50 "all time" best (if that is what typohh's list represents).

Let's take one example: Tien

He's currently 35/100, and doesn't make it to typohh's list. However, his best kgs ranking has been much stronger than demonhunt's (43/50 on typohh's list):

http://www.gokgs.com/graphPage.jsp?user=Tien
http://www.gokgs.com/graphPage.jsp?user=demonhunt

Might it be that typohh's list is based on older data?

[hyperpape]

Since he doesn't have tartrate, whatever it is, it's not all time strongest. Perhaps it doesn't have data for players whose accounts lapsed?

[Ootakamoku]

Taking a close look at the produced rankings (in more detail than shown here), I found that many of the players with only few games got stuck at local maximums. Made a new version that hopefully overcomes that problem, well see. I have the kgs 6dan and stronger games for a 2 year period, spanning from from 6.2010 to 5.2012.

[Ootakamoku]

Alot of bugs fixed again. Here are a 1000 iteration version of KGS ranks based on only the last years game. The reason why some names dont show up on kgs top 100 is because they dont have a solid rank. But for example Butterfly2[9d?] has played 6 games against solid kgs high-dans and won all games. Anyways, let me know if you find anything weird in the results, so I can track down any remaining bugs.

Butterfly2 (2012.4) : 2.61 (29 games)
qiusf (2013.1) : 2.59 (2 games)
kyoungnang (2012.5) : 2.53 (47 games)
MilanMilan (2012.12) : 2.49 (78 games)
xliu101 (2012.12) : 2.42 (24 games)
himountain (2012.12) : 2.36 (45 games)
eku (2012.6) : 2.13 (10 games)
XuanXuanGo (2013.2) : 1.97 (39 games)
Korondo (2012.6) : 1.96 (20 games)
high77 (2012.9) : 1.94 (5 games)
cloudnotes (2012.9) : 1.89 (57 games)
unlocke (2012.12) : 1.87 (7 games)
Hutoshi4 (2012.12) : 1.83 (54 games)
kghin (2013.1) : 1.74 (44 days)
bigbadwolf (2012.12) : 1.71 (38 games)
hjekshdf (2012.11) : 1.7 (83 days)
gowithwi (2012.6) : 1.69 (15 games)
cashewnut (2012.11) : 1.69 (11 games)
pblshtwzrs (2012.5) : 1.66 (12 games)
tooweak (2012.5) : 1.6 (15 games)
sweetrip (2012.8) : 1.57 (13 games)
channaisan (2012.5) : 1.53 (3 games)
smartrobot (2012.4) : 1.5 (38 games)
Firework (2012.5) : 1.49 (9 games)
greenpig (2012.4) : 1.48 (8 games)
mysterious (2012.10) : 1.47 (11 games)
Evildoer (2012.6) : 1.45 (5 games)
hoobastank (2012.8) : 1.44 (23 games)
floosy (2012.7) : 1.39 (7 games)
iamlunatic (2012.8) : 1.34 (13 games)
bin7674 (2012.9) : 1.34 (7 games)
goliard (2012.7) : 1.33 (95 days)
sztanguo (2012.12) : 1.3 (4 games)
roln111 (2013.1) : 1.29 (29 days)
Illuminati (2012.10) : 1.29 (45 games)
billlin (2012.9) : 1.28 (67 games)
suicidal (2012.4) : 1.24 (6 games)
mashup (2012.10) : 1.23 (24 games)
akila (2012.10) : 1.23 (8 games)
okao (2013.2) : 1.22 (70 games)
kathy (2012.5) : 1.22 (2 games)
CoolKid (2013.1) : 1.22 (2 games)
supertjc (2013.1) : 1.19 (60 days)
about2d (2012.6) : 1.19 (28 games)
TiltGo (2013.1) : 1.18 (12 games)
jove (2013.1) : 1.1 (36 games)
princewz (2012.11) : 1.09 (56 games)
xmengzhu (2012.10) : 1.02 (109 days)
Donsaku (2012.9) : 1.01 (29 games)
toobad (2012.5) : 1.0 (17 games)

[Ootakamoku]

Published version 4 of the list (on first page), found a way to avoid getting trapped in local maximums at the expense of considerable cpu time. This version is only based on 475 iterators so far, so the order may still change quite a bit as I let it run over night. But for now I'm quite satisfied with how the list looks.

[Ootakamoku]

Let's take one example: Tien

He's currently 35/100, and doesn't make it to typohh's list. However, his best kgs ranking has been much stronger than demonhunt's (43/50 on typohh's list):

http://www.gokgs.com/graphPage.jsp?user=Tien
http://www.gokgs.com/graphPage.jsp?user=demonhunt

Might it be that typohh's list is based on older data?

I only have high dan games to use for my analysis (from http://www.u-go.net/gamerecords/). And Tien's current rank is based on winning against a 2dan and a 4dan with high handicap. Those low dans dont connect in any way to other players, hence the wins are effectively meaningless. What is to say tien's win wasnt against a 20kyu and 18kyu, with 6 handicap? Not very impressive. After all, since I dont have those players other games, there is no way to measure their strength and there by Tien's strength.

[snorri]

Maybe it is the beer, but did Cho Chikun's peak move back from 1998 in you first try to 1981 in the 4th? I was happy to root for the original. Now I just need more beer...

[tj86430]

Let's take one example: Tien

He's currently 35/100, and doesn't make it to typohh's list. However, his best kgs ranking has been much stronger than demonhunt's (43/50 on typohh's list):

http://www.gokgs.com/graphPage.jsp?user=Tien
http://www.gokgs.com/graphPage.jsp?user=demonhunt

Might it be that typohh's list is based on older data?

I only have high dan games to use for my analysis (from http://www.u-go.net/gamerecords/). And Tien's current rank is based on winning against a 2dan and a 4dan with high handicap. Those low dans dont connect in any way to other players, hence the wins are effectively meaningless. What is to say tien's win wasnt against a 20kyu and 18kyu, with 6 handicap? Not very impressive. After all, since I dont have those players other games, there is no way to measure their strength and there by Tien's strength.

Ok, thanks, I didn't look at his games (I assumed he had his share of high-dan games, too). That explains it for him (and perhaps for many other players, too).

[Ootakamoku]

Maybe it is the beer, but did Cho Chikun's peak move back from 1998 in you first try to 1981 in the 4th? I was happy to root for the original. Now I just need more beer...

Cho Chikun is kinda famous for remaining at the top of his game for a really long period of time?

Cho has shown great longevity as a professional...

Cho has been the champion of the two-day matches. Between 1980 and 2000 he won nearly 50% of the big three Japanese titles (Kisei, Meijin and Hon'inbo)

[Ootakamoku]

Version 5 posted, which is the same as version, except it has 2500 runs, instead of 750. Major difference seems to be a radical decrease in older generation players.