Fukushima

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HermanHiddema
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Re: Fukushima

Post by HermanHiddema »

sybob wrote:Sadly I bring this up again.
MUST READ
Australian headline, ABC, Febr. 18, 2015
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-18/japan-prepares-to-restart-their-nuclear-power-program/6142528
Let it sink in for a minute or two.
What has this world become?


I'm happy to see they have not let this incident scare them off nuclear power. Nuclear power is a safe and clean form of energy, which is absolutely essential in curbing global warming.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by tentano »

The main problem Japan has is that it's either use the existing nuclear reactors, or burn imported fossil fuels. One of these costs a lot more.

I really wish they'd seize the moment and push renewables like geothermal or maybe tidal generators. The amount of investment needed to make that change, though...

I'm still baffled TEPCO is allowed to be in charge of anything anymore. They've done their utmost to obliterate any potential for trust, systematically lying about the extent of the disaster until it was too obvious to hide anymore.

The suspicion lingers that they're still hiding more bad news, and the only way it could be put to rest is if they're done cleaning up and some neutral inspectors go over the entire area to measure if the radiation is back to normal levels. And even then the land will be treated as if it were cursed.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by Bonobo »

HermanHiddema wrote:Nuclear power is a safe and clean form of energy, which is absolutely essential in curbing global warming.
I couldn’t disagree more.

To clarify: In theory, I’d agree to the first part. This means: IF we know all about this, and IF we can manage every involved process to 100%.

But this is the Real Word, with Real People. We DON’T know everything about this (for example, just recently Belgium warned about the fact that steel apparently deteriorates a lot faster under radiation), and Real People make mistakes.

And mistakes that happen with radioactive material and with radiation can have consequences that we cannot manage, consequences we may have to care about for thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of years. But if you think we’re doomed anyway, well, then nuclear energy may be OK. Why shouldn’t our species have some more light in its last 50 years, no? <shrug>

But I can see how this topic can quickly drift away from science to politics …

Greetings, Tom
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Re: Fukushima

Post by DrStraw »

The town of Burlington, Vermont, recently announced that it is entirely powered by renewable energy. Admittedly it is a small town (but the largest in the state) and there is an issue of scalability, but it does show that we can survive without either nuclear or fossil fuel if we try hard enough.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by HermanHiddema »

I am talking about the Real World, with Real People. Real world experience shows that accidents are rare. Statistically, based on real world experience, nuclear power is safe. Nothing theoretical about it.

If you want to stay away from the politics, and look at the science only, then the statement "Nuclear power is safe and clean" is as close as you're going to get to the scientific consensus.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by Bonobo »

Yeah right, if one of my feet is in a pot with boiling water and the other foot is in a pot with ice water, then I’m fine, statistically :lol:

We’d have to be sure we can handle the deviations from the statistical normality that will doubtlessly happen, right?
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Re: Fukushima

Post by Splatted »

HermanHiddema wrote:I am talking about the Real World, with Real People. Real world experience shows that accidents are rare. Statistically, based on real world experience, nuclear power is safe. Nothing theoretical about it.

If you want to stay away from the politics, and look at the science only, then the statement "Nuclear power is safe and clean" is as close as you're going to get to the scientific consensus.


This is the weirdest definition of safe I have ever seen. It doesn't matter how rarely accidents occur if you don't also consider the severity of those accidents and the potential situations that could arise. If occasional "accidents" can result in huge loss of life and render large sections of the planet unlivable then no I don't think you'll find a consensus claiming nuclear power is safe.

As for your definition of clean... I guess the fact that nuclear material is basically the worst pollutant imaginable escaped your notice? Add to that the fact that we have literally no way of dealing with used (but still active) material and at best nuclear power is a means of putting off dealing with our power issues and forcing future generations to figure out a solution for that and what to do with the mountains of radioactive material we left for them.

Edit: P.s. I spill close to 100% of my drinks. Does that mean I'm many times more dangerous than a nuclear power plant? If you want to rely on statistics you should include statistics for the results of accidents as well as their probability of occurring.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by skydyr »

Splatted wrote:
HermanHiddema wrote:I am talking about the Real World, with Real People. Real world experience shows that accidents are rare. Statistically, based on real world experience, nuclear power is safe. Nothing theoretical about it.

If you want to stay away from the politics, and look at the science only, then the statement "Nuclear power is safe and clean" is as close as you're going to get to the scientific consensus.


This is the weirdest definition of safe I have ever seen. It doesn't matter how rarely accidents occur if you don't also consider the severity of those accidents and the potential situations that could arise. If occasional "accidents" can result in huge loss of life and render large sections of the planet unlivable then no I don't think you'll find a consensus claiming nuclear power is safe.

As for your definition of clean... I guess the fact that nuclear material is basically the worst pollutant imaginable escaped your notice? Add to that the fact that we have literally no way of dealing with used (but still active) material and at best nuclear power is a means of putting off dealing with our power issues and forcing future generations to figure out a solution for that and what to do with the mountains of radioactive material we left for them.


When the current alternative is spewing megatons of carbon, particulates, and other crap into the atmosphere on a daily basis, which cause countless health problems on their own before you even consider global warming, this becomes a lot less clear cut.

Renewables would be great, but there isn't the infrastructure or capacity to use them for all generation now, and they tend to not be very good at supporting base loads, since things like wind and solar can't guarantee a given output at any given time. A lot of the places that are 100% renewable pay power companies that use renewables, but those renewables aren't actually powering the city or town 100% of the time because of their variability and the fungibility of power in the unified market.

Hydro power is somewhat more managable in this regards, but this too has the problem of making vast swaths of land unlivable, and is to some extent dependent on weather and geography. I think we'd be extremely hard pressed to find enough hydro power to power the world, though it may work regionally (like in Quebec). In addition, it wreaks havoc on river ecosystems as well, as fish are no longer able to migrate up and down the river with ease.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by tentano »

By the way, if you hate radioactive pollutants, don't look up what gets emitted from burning coal. You won't like that.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by HermanHiddema »

Splatted wrote:
HermanHiddema wrote:I am talking about the Real World, with Real People. Real world experience shows that accidents are rare. Statistically, based on real world experience, nuclear power is safe. Nothing theoretical about it.

If you want to stay away from the politics, and look at the science only, then the statement "Nuclear power is safe and clean" is as close as you're going to get to the scientific consensus.


This is the weirdest definition of safe I have ever seen. It doesn't matter how rarely accidents occur if you don't also consider the severity of those accidents and the potential situations that could arise. If occasional "accidents" can result in huge loss of life and render large sections of the planet unlivable then no I don't think you'll find a consensus claiming nuclear power is safe.


Nothing is safe. You can get run over while walking down the street. So the definition of safe I'm using is "Causes relatively few deaths and injuries relative to comparable activities". That's the kind of definition we use to say that air travel is one of the safest forms of travel. Yes, sometimes hundreds of people die in a plan crash, whereas your average car crash involves just a few deaths. And the plane crash is given a lot of attention on TV, while car crashes are pretty much just statistics. But if you consider the number of person-miles traveled, air travel is much safer.

In the same way, we can compare nuclear to other power sources, such as coal, hydro, wind and solar, by comparing the number of deaths and injuries per kilowatt-hour generated. By that measure, nuclear is pretty much the safest form of energy out there. Coal, especially, causes huge harm through air pollution. But increased lung disease is a statistics, while an event like Fukushima is a huge media event. But Fukushima has cause no deaths, and is not expected to increase the rate of cancer or birth defects. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of deaths are attributable to coal power every year.

As for your definition of clean... I guess the fact that nuclear material is basically the worst pollutant imaginable escaped your notice? Add to that the fact that we have literally no way of dealing with used (but still active) material and at best nuclear power is a means of putting off dealing with our power issues and forcing future generations to figure out a solution for that and what to do with the mountains of radioactive material we left for them.


Again, you need to compare waste generated per kilowatt-hour. The energy density of Uranium is insane. You literally get a million times more energy from a kilo of uranium than you do from a kilo of coal. So yes, nuclear waste is a problem, but it is far less of a problem than the waste of coal-powered plants.

And lets not forget that we share this planet with a lot of other creatures. So lets look beyond the human death toll and also consider the environmental impact. Uranium, again because of its energy density, has orders of magnitude less impact due to mining than coal. It does not destroy entire ecosystems by building huge dams. The waste problem is a storage problem, unlike coal, where the global warming effect impacts the entire planet.

Now I very much support the widespread use solar and wind, and it would be great if solar/wind energy could power the world. But that is not currently possible. Solar and wind are intermittent power sources that depend on the weather, and our current battery technology and power transport technology do not give us the option to solve that problem.

If you need a constant, reliable source of power that can scale quickly with demand, nuclear is the cleanest, safest option currently at our disposal. Every coal plant replaced by a nuclear plant is a boon for the environment and for humanity.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by jeromie »

See this article at forbes.com for some numbers to support Herman's argument. A quick summary: worldwide, coal accounts for 170,000 deaths per trillion kwH produced. Nuclear accounts for about 90. (Solar, wind, and hydro all account for more deaths per energy unit than nuclear power.) These numbers include deaths (and projected deaths) attributed to Chernobyl and Fukishima, and nuclear power generation has still been one of the safest, cleanest forms of power that humanity has ever used.

We also have to account for the fact that nuclear engineers have made great progress in the last fifty years. Modern nuclear power plants can be built such that it is impossible for them to melt down. The type of disaster that happened at Fukishima is simply not possible with newer plant designs.

In addition, newer designs are able to more effectively use the available energy in uranium, leading to much less potent waste that decays to safe levels in a shorter amount of time. Disposing of waste is still not a trivial problem, and it's certainly one that must be thought through carefully, but we're not talking about "mountains" of waste that lasts for thousands of years. And when the waste is properly disposed, it has far less widespread environmental impact than, say, coal particulates.

I don't think nuclear is the answer to our energy problems. We need to continue to evaluate existing renewable resources (while considering the real environmental impact of each new source we add), research new methods of clean energy production, learn how to more efficiently use the energy we produce, and promote simple lifestyles that lead to less energy demand. But I do think that nuclear is an important part of clean energy production, and the only practical way to maintain energy production comparable to current levels while reducing the atmospheric impact of our current energy production strategies.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by jeromie »

I'm going to commit the forum faux pas of double posting to say that, despite my above defense of nuclear energy production, I think that the way matters were handled in Japan during / after the Fukishima disaster was deplorable. (Assuming the linked article was accurate, of course. I haven't done a lot of independent research into the issue.) When there is a disaster of any sort, it's essential that officials communicate transparently with the public rather than try to preserve their own public image. Deceit always compounds the results of disaster.
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Re: Fukushima

Post by Bill Spight »

The problem with nuclear power is nuclear waste, which has to be safely secured for much longer than human civilization has existed. But from the look of things, global warming will destroy human civilization long before nuclear waste becomes a significant danger. The cockroaches can handle it. :cool:
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Re: Fukushima

Post by Bill Spight »

Seriously, solar power is getting much cheaper, and thorium reactors sound promising. :)
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Re: Fukushima

Post by skydyr »

Bill Spight wrote:Seriously, solar power is getting much cheaper, and thorium reactors sound promising. :)


Um... thorium, while not uranium, is still nuclear power.
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