probability question
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entropi
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probability question
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
(A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25%
(A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25%
If you say no, Elwood and I will come here for breakfast, lunch, and dinner every day of the week.
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Amelia
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Re: probability question
It depends.
Last edited by Amelia on Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill Spight
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Re: probability question
The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
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schawipp
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Re: probability question
To make things more desperate you should extend this to ...
(A) 20% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 20% (E) 0%If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
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entropi
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Re:
EdLee, the question refers to itself. So, "this question" is the question you read.EdLee wrote:Question X:If you choose an answer to Question X at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
Please first define Question X.
If you say no, Elwood and I will come here for breakfast, lunch, and dinner every day of the week.
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DrStraw
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Re: probability question
Zero. Without further information we can only assume that all answers are possible. Therefore the choices form a finite subset of an infinite number of possible answers. The density is zero.entropi wrote:If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
(A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25%
If, on the other hand, all possible correct answers are listed and each is considered equally likely then the probability is one third.
Still officially AGA 5d but I play so irregularly these days that I am probably only 3d or 4d over the board (but hopefully still 5d in terms of knowledge, theory and the ability to contribute).
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Re: probability question
Measure or (in some cases, depending on the use) capacity is zero. A set does not have density, but is either dense or not (depending on a metric.)DrStraw wrote:Zero. Without further information we can only assume that all answers are possible. Therefore the choices form a finite subset of an infinite number of possible answers. The density is zero.entropi wrote:If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
(A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25%
If, on the other hand, all possible correct answers are listed and each is considered equally likely then the probability is one third.
Geek of all trades, master of none: the motto for my blog mostlymaths.net
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DrStraw
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Re: probability question
Agreed. But most people here are not mathematicians. As I was writing in English I used a term which I would expect to be clearer to everyone.RBerenguel wrote:Measure or (in some cases, depending on the use) capacity is zero. A set does not have density, but is either dense or not (depending on a metric.)DrStraw wrote:Zero. Without further information we can only assume that all answers are possible. Therefore the choices form a finite subset of an infinite number of possible answers. The density is zero.entropi wrote:If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
(A) 25% (B) 50% (C) 60% (D) 25%
If, on the other hand, all possible correct answers are listed and each is considered equally likely then the probability is one third.
Still officially AGA 5d but I play so irregularly these days that I am probably only 3d or 4d over the board (but hopefully still 5d in terms of knowledge, theory and the ability to contribute).
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Re: probability question
Got it, I just read it in mathematician eyes but now I think of it I can't find a clearer English word aside from density. Weird, I bet there should be one...
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RobertJasiek
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Re: probability question
Since it may be any random distribution with any probability, there are an infinite number of such probabilities but only a finite number of available answer probabilities. Hence the answer is: "almost 0". With a model of an increasing number of distributions and finally infinitely many, the answer is: "converges to 0 from its positive side".
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Re: probability question
I'm reminded of the mathematician joke that ends with the punchline, "The mathematician picks up the flamethrower and sets the house on fire, thereby reducing the problem to a case previously solved."
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Bill Spight
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Re: probability question
In English "to choose at random" means to choose so that each option has the same probability of being chosen.RobertJasiek wrote:Since it may be any random distribution with any probability, there are an infinite number of such probabilities but only a finite number of available answer probabilities. Hence the answer is: "almost 0". With a model of an increasing number of distributions and finally infinitely many, the answer is: "converges to 0 from its positive side".
The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
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Re: probability question
%0.0 Chance given that the correct answer is not actually listed.
Thinking like a go player during a game of chess is like bringing a knife to a gun-fight. Thinking like a chess player during a game of go feels like getting knifed while you're holding a gun...
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RobertJasiek
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Re: probability question
I'd say that "to choose at random uniformly / with a uniform distribution" would mean this. At least in (precise) German, one needs to say "gleichverteilt zufällig wählen".Bill Spight wrote:In English "to choose at random" means to choose so that each option has the same probability of being chosen.