What percentage of pros "make it"

[DrStraw]

There are quite a few pros whose information is scattered among the pages of SL. Many of them never rise to the higher ranks. This got me thinking. Does anyone have any statistics on the following questions:

1. What percentage make 9 dan?
2. What percentage get to the higher dans (7-9)?
3. What percentage drop out and stop playing professionally (but may continue teaching)?

[aeb]

There are quite a few pros whose information is scattered among the pages of SL.

A less scattered place is http://homepages.cwi.nl/~aeb/go/misc/progression.html
It is fairly complete for recent Japanese pros, but very incomplete for older players. Additions and corrections welcome.

Does anyone have any statistics ... What percentage make 9 dan?

You can play with that table. For example

Code: Select all

$ grep Died progression.html  | wc -l
122
$ grep Died progression.html  | grep 9p | wc -l
59

[Kirby]

The Hankuk Kiwon provides a few pro listings, categorized based on location.

Here are the Korean pros:
http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp

This includes pros that might not actively compete, such as Alexandre Dinerchtein 3p, who many here are probably familiar with. Based on this listing, rank distribution is as follows:

9p - 68 people
8p - 17 people
7p - 28 people
6p - 26 people
5p - 35 people
4p - 29 people
3p - 41 people
2p - 24 people
1p - 41 people

This includes both male and female pros. The blue names indicate female pros, and the distribution is different. For example, there are only two 9d female pros listed.

Similar pages can be found for other areas.

China - http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp?S_nation=2
Japan - http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp?S_nation=3
Taiwan - http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp?S_nation=4
Players in other countries - http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp?S_nation=5
Retired Korean pros - http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp?S_nation=8
North American and European pros - http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp?S_nation=6

I guess the listings aren't complete at least for the North American pros, as the only two people listed in that section are ILYA SHIKSHIN and Pavol LISY.

If you are more curious than I am about the topic, you could gather the distribution of ranks from each of these pages, then aggregate them to see how pro ranks are distributed overall.

[DrStraw]

Thanks for the replies but they don't really answer the questions. They give a current snapshot. That is not what I am looking for. Many of the lower rank players will eventually reach the higher levels. I am thinking more of the lifetime achievements. For example, what percentage never get to 7dan; what percentage give up because they are stuck at the lower levels?

[Kirby]

For example, what percentage never get to 7dan(?)

It's a small sample size, but perhaps this question can be answered by the listing of retired pros that I linked above (http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp?S_nation=8). Presumably, they are "done".

This page lists 73 individuals, of which 17 are 7d or higher. So 56/73, or about 77% never made 7d or higher.

what percentage give up because they are stuck at the lower levels?

To answer this, I suspect that more is needed than simply stats on what rank a player achieved. You'd need to have some way of knowing a given pro's reason for giving up.

[aeb]

Thanks for the replies but they don't really answer the questions. They give a current snapshot.

Did you actually look? There is a fairly complete (recent) history there, at least for Japanese players.

Japan - http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp?S_nation=3

Good! I am not yet so familiar with Korean sites. Probably their Korean statistics are good, but the Japanese list is a bit meagre, with 63 9-dans, where I listed 194. Perhaps these are only the players active in international games?

[Kirby]

Japan - http://baduk.or.kr/info/player_list.asp?S_nation=3

Good! I am not yet so familiar with Korean sites. Probably their Korean statistics are good, but the Japanese list is a bit meagre, with 63 9-dans, where I listed 194. Perhaps these are only the players active in international games?

I don't know the details of how the lists are compiled - there's a good possibility that the list is filtered and/or incomplete. But considering the number of pros in the world, I think what we have here in this thread constitutes a good sample.

[gowan]

Older Japanese pros played in the oteai (ranking tournament) for their active careers.

[Freewheelin']

....what percentage give up because they are stuck at the lower levels?

Pros give up for a variety of reasons, not just because they are 'stuck at the lower levels'. For example the longevity of a playing career in China can be quite short, with only a few vacancies for coaching roles after retiring from play. So you can see people that have reached low pro dan level eventually make a hard-headed decision to pursue an alternative career rather than pursuing their go career -even though there's a good chance they could have had their moments of glory on the go scene for a few years.

I'm impressed enough that someone manages to reach pro-level, but when they've somehow managed to combine it with university, medical training etc, I find it mind-boggling they've had the time and the energy.

[gowan]

....what percentage give up because they are stuck at the lower levels?

Pros give up for a variety of reasons, not just because they are 'stuck at the lower levels'. For example the longevity of a playing career in China can be quite short, with only a few vacancies for coaching roles after retiring from play. So you can see people that have reached low pro dan level eventually make a hard-headed decision to pursue an alternative career rather than pursuing their go career -even though there's a good chance they could have had their moments of glory on the go scene for a few years.

I'm impressed enough that someone manages to reach pro-level, but when they've somehow managed to combine it with university, medical training etc, I find it mind-boggling they've had the time and the energy.

Most Japanese pros reach pro shodan when in their teens, so it doesn't seem strange that they could still complete a strenuous academic program. Sakai Hideyuki became a pro after finishing his medical studies. This was exceptional. He won the World Amateur Go Championship twice and became a pro by playing a trial match against a 9-dan.