2016 Pro qualification tourney

[wolfking]

A lot of theses kids are probably as strong as many top-50 Japanese pros, if not stronger. Quite a few of them could probably take out a top-10 Japanese pro.

Such a surfeit of talent...

Isn't it amazing what having more than a billion people in one country can do??

I think your judgement is incorrect and insulting to the Japanese professional Go scene, especially the latter statement regarding top-10 pros. This isn't the finals of a big Chinese tournament, this is a qualification tournament to become a professional *ONE* dan. When was the last time you saw a Chinese 1p defeat a top 10 Japanese professional?

Actually I do not think by78's statement is completely off base. IMHO the gap between a new pro and a top ranked one is surprisingly narrow these days. For example, due to the open nature of some international tournaments and smaller number of pros in Korea their inseis have more opportunity to participate in these international tournaments (usually entered as amateur) and they constantly beat Japanese/Korean/Chinese pros (a recent case is An Jungki won 5 in a row to get into final stage of LG cup in May last year and then beat Chen Yaoye to advance and lost to the eventual champion Kang Dongyun. An was ranked 6th among Korean inseis at the time and failed the pro exam in February before the surprising performance in LG cup. Now An is a middling pro ranked 163 on goratings.com). I do not think Korean inseis are particularly strong compared to Chinese new pros. If An could beat Chen Yaoye when he was still an insei it would not surprise me that a few of these new pros can take out some top 10 Japanese pros.

[Kirby]

These discussions are always hypothetical.

In Aja's keynote speech at the US Go Congress, he mentioned that a 75% win rate meant about 1 stone difference in strength. That means a guy one stone weaker still wins 25% of the time.

At pro level, 1 stone is huge.

[hyperpape]

The thing is, the Li Qincheng example proves too much. Li Qincheng can beat top Japanese players, but he can also beat top Chinese players. It is evidence of the point that an exceptional 1p may be very close to the top players.

Whether the Chinese population is the defining factor is not really clear. It seems like China is a bit ahead of Korea these days, but the biggest gap is the China/Korea vs. Japan gap. Japan has more people than Korea, but is definitely lagging behind. And China has > 10x the population of Korea but is only ahead of Korea by a bit.

[Kirby]

hyperpape, you may be correct. The point I am trying to make is, even if someone "can beat" another person, it doesn't mean that they are stronger. In the example I gave, someone one stone weaker "can beat" the other guy 25% of the time.

Nonetheless, my discussion is also hypothetical, and I know nothing of Li Qincheng. It could very well be that he is stronger than some top professionals. I'm not sure.

I'd simply like to point out that just because someone has beaten someone else, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are close in strength.

[hyperpape]

Kirby, I edited my post a little. Your post only showed up when I was submitting mine. My post is a response to the mention of Li higher up in the thread.

[idontgetit]

I've been lurking for a while, but I just can't hold it in anymore.

I really, really don't get it, guys. Why do we have to be in denial, just to be politically correct? It's more than obvious to anyone at a glance that go in Japan is not as strong as go in Korea/China currently. It's just a fact. Coming up with pathetic excuses for Japanese go doesn't help anyone. It's like making excuses saying "Well, China/Korea weren't weaker than Japan in the 1950s, there just weren't any international titles back then".

What would you like to see more, Japanese pros actually becoming competitive with Chinese/Korean pros, making for exciting tournaments, or making more pathetic excuses, pat the Japanese pros on the back, and have international tournaments between China/Korea only for another few decades to come?

First of all, stop thinking in terms of 1p or 9p or whatever p. That kind of thinking no longer works. Just because they're 1p doesn't mean they're weak. Pro exams are super competitive these days, and new pros (whether they're Chinese, Korean or Japanese) are often stronger than many older pros, because the older pros are not under the kind of stress people studying to become a pro are, so they don't practise/study as much.

Last year, a new little girl who just became pro beat Rui Naiwei in the female A leagues. New Pros are very strong.

Putting aside how strong the top players in Japan are, Japan (and even Korea) just doesn't have anywhere near the thickness China has. And it makes sense, since China has 10-20x more people than Japan/Korea.... If we look at participants in the big title leagues and NHK cup, you see many players who aren't very strong at all (compared to top level pros). You have a bunch of 60 year olds, who obviously would not be at their peak anymore.

Do you really think that new Chinese (or Korean) pros won't have a chance against them? Come on. I wouldn't even be surprised if you said a new Chinese pro would be top 100 (possibly even 50) in China.

[Kirby]

Not sure which post you disagree with...

[jeromie]

I haven't seen anyone, on any thread, argue that the strength of Japanese go isn't currently lagging behind China and Korea. I've seen two issues that are debated:

• How does Iyama Yuta's strength compare to that of top Chinese and Korean pros? Some people think he is competitive with the top players from other countries; others think he's overrated because the general strength of Japan is weak. I don't think there is enough data to conclusively prove either side right, so this is a perfect topic for endless debate on the internet.
• What are the reasons that Japanese go currently lags behind their main rivals? It seems reasonable to look for the cultural factors that have led Korea and China to rise to a position of dominance. As a corollary, some have suggested that these cultural differences have brought benefit to the go community apart from increased playing strength. That's hard to prove, but given the legacy of Japanese go in the West it seems a reasonable hypothesis.

In general, I think most disagreements come because of differences in tone. Many people recognize the effort it takes to become a professional in any system and feel those who have achieved that title have earned some measure of respect. Others see no reason to offer respect to any but the top echelon of talent. That's probably a difference in values that extends far beyond one's approach to go.

[kimidori]

In general, I think most disagreements come because of differences in tone

I completely agree with that. Let's me rephrase the by78's statement like this: "Those young kids are probably strong enough to rival top 100 pros in China. On a good day, some of them might even beat a top 20, and I seriously doubt that the #1 Ke Jie can give them 1 stone handicap." We're talking about Chinese kids, right, so why don't compare them with Chinese pros instead?

[oren]

There is no doubt that Japan is the weakest of the three countries. However, by78 likes to bring it up in many threads which have nothing to do with the topic which is a bit trollish.

[Heretix]

There is no doubt that Japan is the weakest of the three countries. However, by78 likes to bring it up in many threads which have nothing to do with the topic which is a bit trollish.

Went through his profile and his posts, the comment that says that he hates on Japanese pros as a hobby is not a stretch. If this was Reddit he would have been downvoted to bits and few will even see his posts. I guess on forums like these it's up to the moderation team.

[by78]

In general, I think most disagreements come because of differences in tone

I completely agree with that. Let's me rephrase the by78's statement like this: "Those young kids are probably strong enough to rival top 100 pros in China. On a good day, some of them might even beat a top 20, and I seriously doubt that the #1 Ke Jie can give them 1 stone handicap." We're talking about Chinese kids, right, so why don't compare them with Chinese pros instead?

Because these kids are not strong enough to beat a top Chinese pro, and 1 stone handicap is not enough for them to prevail over Ke Jie.

Many of them are, however, quite possibly as strong as many top-50 Japanese pros, and can certainly give any top-20 Japanese pro a run for his money.

If you don't like that? That's your problem, really.

People are so bloody sensitive and partisan on this forum, but I don't give a rat's arse how you interpret my tone.

Japanese pros are WEAK compared to their Korean and Chinese counterparts. I can't help it if you don't like that fact, just as I can't help the fact that some people don't like the theory of evolution, or that Jesus ain't never ever coming back.

So yeah, take a deep breath and sod off.

[Uberdude]

Perhaps the level of Chinese Go and new 1ps in particular has increased in the last 5-10 years, but those ~20 year old Chinese 1ps who are now studying in the USA and playing in the US Masters don't seem anywhere close to top pro level (even accounting for them no longer being active pros). It will be interesting to see how Ito Kenryo 1p from Japan does against them: he plays Bao Yun 6d ama (but pro level) from China today who has already beaten Andy Liu and Eric Lui AGA 1ps and Hanchen Zhang Chinese 1p (Ito has had an easier draw so far, probably best win was against Michael Chen (KGS zchen, darkmage etc)).

[idontgetit]

Not sure which post you disagree with...

I was mostly responding to the post that said that it was "insulting" to Japanese pros to say that new 1ps can possibly beat top 50 or even top 10 Japanese pros.


It isn't even insulting to say that new 1ps could possibly beat top 50 Chinese pros.

@Uberdude: Kenryo seems surprisingly strong. Not sure why I haven't seen him in any of the Japanese tournaments like NHK. Maybe I just haven't been paying enough attention. Also, seems like he can speak Chinese, which is interesting.

I'm predicting that he'll beat Bao Yun. I don't think he's played Andy Liu yet, right? I think Kenryo has the best chance of winning this year, or maybe he'll drop one to Andy Liu and there will be a 3-way 1 loss tie between Kenryo, Andy and Bao Yun. Would be interesting.

[Uberdude]

According to the USGC broadcasts (live now on KGS), Tim (Zirui) Song became pro in 2012, so not too long ago. With these stories of 1ps or amateurs (like An Jungki, Cho Insun etc) beating top pros there is of course a bias in that we only hear about the remarkable successes they have, there are hoards of Chinese 1ps none of us have ever heard of who have unremarkable careers. Even Ke Jie who rocketed to world #1 by the time he was 18 years old spent a fair few years (became pro in 2008) toiling away as an unremarkable low dan until his breakthrough to top pro level in 2014, which I recall him putting down to playing thousands of games against top pros on Tygem and reviewing with Park Junghwan as they were in the same team in the Chinese league.

Edit: so Tim Song lost to Eric Lui, so that Chinese 1p from 2012 isn't a super strong pro. Ito Kenryo and Bao Yun played an amazing game but Kenryo seemingly lost on time, but didn't, so they played on but he resigned.