John Fairbairn wrote:Bill Spight wrote:The possible omission number (PON) is related to the strength or weakness of a group. A PON of 0 means that the group is unsettled; the attacker to play can kill, the defender to play can live. A PON of 1 means that the attacker to play can move to a position with a PON of 0. I have observed that in the opening pros generally try to make groups with a PON of at least 2.
Bill, I've heard of PON before, but have forgotten the background and certainly have no experience of it - which makes framing a sensible question about it a little difficult.
At this point, John, I expect that you are as much of an expert about PON as I am.

Which isn't saying much.

But what caught my attention most was your feeling that the PON number may be coming out a bit high in the instances here, as well as your sense that pros don't like PONs below 2. My interest was because this chimed with an observation I made when looking at miai.
When I was coming up through the ranks years ago, the way the concept of miai that was used and taught among UK amateurs (the blind leading the blind, of course) was that it was OK to leave a group until it had exactly two options left. In those days virtually the only known pukka strategy was the one-weak-group strategy, and this idea of miai resonated with that. I absorbed all that and ended up with some bad habits. Talking about miai also went a bit out of fashion, so it was only relatively recently that I discovered that miai with just two options is quite rare in pro games. They seem to insist on three or more (which is similar to PON = 2+??). To give myself a crutch to think and take notes about this, I came up with the nonsense word tri-ai.
(From here on out we are talking about the actual PON, not the estimate.) A group with miai to live has a PON of 1, right? Adding another option to live yields a PON of 2, unless the opponent can destroy two options with a single play, which might be possible in some relatively undefined regions. It looks like your observation about pro games agrees with mine.

So, to come to my question, is it possible that PON is (or should be) based on measuring the safety of a group as opposed to its life? In other words, we should expect groups with high PONs because pros want to be able to respond before the group can be bullied, not just at the last possible moment to make two eyes.
IIUC, since in practice the pros rarely tenuki when the PON for the life of a group is 1, redefine the PON to make it 0 for such groups? We could do that by subtracting 1 from the PON as currently defined. That's an interesting idea, one that makes the PON a better guide to play.

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At the time when I began studying pro games, I gave a lot of importance to sente, in the sense of the initiative. So I was quite surprised to observe the pros play reverse sente to bolster groups that could live in gote if attacked. I started doing so myself, without really understanding why.

As you point out, a group with a PON of 1 can be bullied. And, as you suggest in this thread, having two groups with low PONs can be dangerous. For instance, in an attack against two groups, each with a PON of 1, the attacker might well be able to make a play that reduces the PON of each group to 0, killing one or the other. That's a good reason not to leave a group with a PON of 1 early in the game.
An exception to that rule occurs when a group is isolated, so that a double attack is unlikely to develop. Here is an illustrative game.

$$Bcm10 Increase the PON
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 1 , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X X . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . X O X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bcm10 Increase the PON
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . , . . . . . , . . . . . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . 1 , . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X X . . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
$$ | . X O X . O . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]
Black, Yasui Chitetsu, extends to

to prevent bullying, as well as to make territory.
$$Bcm22 Dosaku (W) - Chitetsu, 1674
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . X . . . . O . . . O X . . . . |
$$ | . . 9 , . . . . . , . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X X . . . . . , . . . O . 2 O 6 . |
$$ | . X O X . O . . . . . . O . X 3 1 4 . |
$$ | . O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 7 |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------
- Click Here To Show Diagram Code
[go]$$Bcm22 Dosaku (W) - Chitetsu, 1674
$$ ---------------------------------------
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . X . . . . O . . . O X . . . . |
$$ | . . 9 , . . . . . , . . . O . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X , . . . . . , . . . . . , X . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . . |
$$ | . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ | . . X X . . . . . , . . . O . 2 O 6 . |
$$ | . X O X . O . . . . . . O . X 3 1 4 . |
$$ | . O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 7 |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . |
$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

-

lives in the corner.

bolsters the White group and threatens the invasion at

. Note that Yasui leaves his corner group with a PON of 1, as it is relatively isolated.

Later in the game, at

, Dosaku uses the PON of 1 of that Black group to save his own group.
(;SZ[19]FF[3]
PW[Honinbo Dosaku]
PB[Yasui Chitetsu]
DT[1674-12-06 (Enpo 2 XI 9)]
PC[Residence of Popular Affairs Minister Matsudaira Daisuke]
OH[2]
HA[2]
RE[W+1]
US[GoGoD95]
AB[dp][pd]
;W[fq];B[cm];W[cq];B[dq];W[dr];B[cp];W[br];B[bq];W[cr];B[cj];W[qp];B[oq]
;W[mq];B[ec];W[np];B[qj];W[nc];B[oc];W[nd];B[qe];W[jc];B[qq];W[pp];B[pq]
;W[rq];B[rr];W[rp];B[sr];W[ql];B[cd];W[qh];B[oj];W[oh];B[ol];W[rj];B[qm]
;W[qk];B[pm];W[op];B[ll];W[nk];B[nl];W[mk];B[ml];W[kn];B[gp];W[jl];B[lk]
;W[fp];B[gn];W[fo];B[in];W[dm];B[dl];W[el];B[km];W[jm];B[jn];W[ko];B[hl]
;W[jj];B[jp];W[li];B[lp];W[ps];B[nr];W[mr];B[ns];W[kp];B[kq];W[mo];B[lq]
;W[kl];B[lm];W[mn];B[nh];W[jo];B[ip];W[io];B[ho];W[nq];B[pr];W[ms];B[qs]
;W[jq];B[iq];W[jr];B[ir];W[im];B[hn];W[kr];B[em];W[fm];B[dn];W[ni];B[oi]
;W[mi];B[ph];W[og];B[kj];W[ki];B[ji];W[ij];B[jh];W[hi];B[pg];W[ok];B[lr]
;W[ls];B[is];W[ks];B[bp];W[en];B[dm];W[ng];B[of];W[pf];B[qg];W[qi];B[nf]
;W[mg];B[gq];W[gr];B[fs];W[eq];B[ar];W[fk];B[gl];W[fl];B[fn];W[ei];B[eo]
;W[pi];B[qf];W[mf];B[hc];W[fd];B[fc];W[ce];B[de];W[df];B[ee];W[bd];B[cc]
;W[cf];B[di];W[eh];B[ef];W[dh];B[ch];W[bc];B[bb];W[dd];B[dc];W[hd];B[ic]
;W[id];B[jb];W[ge];B[fe];W[ib];B[hb];W[kb];B[gf];W[hf];B[hg];W[gg];B[gh]
;W[fg];B[eg];W[fh];B[dg];W[ff];B[ed];W[dj];B[ci];W[nb];B[ob];W[ja];B[ik]
;W[jk];B[rh];W[ri];B[rg];W[oa];B[pa];W[na];B[qb];W[dk];B[ck];W[gk];B[hk]
;W[hj];B[gc];W[oe];B[pe];W[ne];B[ha];W[gd];B[sq];W[sp];B[si];W[sj];B[sh]
;W[pf];B[of];W[ia]
)