Iyama Yuta did it!

[Shenoute]

Nothing against Iyama of course but now that he has achieved the grand slam of Japanese titles, I kind of want other players to win some titles, especially "new faces" like Ichiriki. I feel this can only make the go scene more interesting.

[Uberdude]

But he pulled through. If you want the odds from goratings, with Iyama being at 3515, Takao at 3363, Takao is just barely favored to win the remaining two games, 51-49.

I think such odds which assume games are independent events are not particularly useful in a multi-game title match where psychological factors, form, momentum and such like come to the fore.

As for the game, I am puzzled by Takao's peep of move 71. I can see that if Iyama answers it then it is a teensy bit good exchange (because if white wins the ko his connection becomes wasted, but black's move has little value too as white wedging into the kosumi achieves little), but it gives Iyama a chance to magnify the ko. The result in which Iyama doesn't start the ko but plays an atari to create bigger threats (saving a wasted move inside if he loses, good technique to remember), Takao resolves the ko and Iyama gets 2 stones in the centre and sente is very difficult for me to judge, but if it is ok/good for Iyama why did Takao peep because the left side fighting seemed quite ok for him (maybe my judgement wrong here)? I thought Iyama's peep of 56 was strange because it wasn't sente as he hadn't made the atari connect exchange earlier, so if he wanted that peep why did hs solid connect instead of atari for 48? He didn't want to give black the choice to take corner?

[idontgetit]

Nothing against Iyama of course but now that he has achieved the grand slam of Japanese titles, I kind of want other players to win some titles, especially "new faces" like Ichiriki. I feel this can only make the go scene more interesting.

Yeah. Honestly Iyama should lose all his titles and start trying his luck in international titles. Then we can know whether he's top class or not after all.

[kimidori]

Yeah. Honestly Iyama should lose all his titles and start trying his luck in international titles. Then we can know whether he's top class or not after all.

If he only starts play international tournaments when he already lost all his titles, I guess he would be no longer competitive at that moment, like Cho U now. But I do hope that the young guns could manage to take some titles from him (Ichikiri and Yu are actually good candidates, their recent international performances are pretty good), so we no longer see the usual "schedule conflict" reason anymore.

[idontgetit]

Yeah. Honestly Iyama should lose all his titles and start trying his luck in international titles. Then we can know whether he's top class or not after all.

If he only starts play international tournaments when he already lost all his titles, I guess he would be no longer competitive at that moment, like Cho U now. But I do hope that the young guns could manage to take some titles from him (Ichikiri and Yu are actually good candidates, their recent international performances are pretty good), so we no longer see the usual "schedule conflict" reason anymore.

Yeah, if he starts losing his titles because he's getting too old. Which is why I want him to lose his titles now, as unlikely as it may be.

Ichiriki Ryo is a beast. He should take some of the burden (big 7 titles) off of Iyama's shoulders

[hyperpape]

I think such odds which assume games are independent events are not particularly useful in a multi-game title match where psychological factors, form, momentum and such like come to the fore.

Not useful how?

I agree that the actual objective odds of a win vary quite a bit based on factors that a rating model doesn't use.[0]

If we knew the players' sleep levels, stresses, facts about which openings they prepared, we could do better. I also think there is such a thing as momentum, but I'm not sure we could make reliable judgments about it even if we spent lots of time shadowing the players in the days before the game. Players are streaky, but I'm not sure whether we have the ability to say Iyama's last two wins are signs that he's on a good streak as opposed to reverting to normal behavior. Or if a player is on a streak of playing well, how do we predict when it will end? Maybe someone can do reliably make that prediction, but I know it's not me, and I'm not sure if it's anyone else who posts on these boards.

[0] In fact, aren't they always .9999999999 or .00000000001 or whatever? I suspect that quantum mechanics doesn't really introduce significant non-determinism into how a go match proceeds.

[Uberdude]

I seem to recall reading (maybe Tournament Go 1992?) that if one player wins the first 3 games of a 7 game match and then the other the next 3 in most cases that 2nd comeback player keeps the momentum and wins the decider. However clicking through Mr Kin's site I find 2 exceptions: Iyama winning the 39th Kisei against Yamashita and Yamashita winning the 66th Honinbo against Hane, and only 1 conforming with Hane winning 63rd Honinbo against Takao. Maybe some kind forum member has stats going back further.

[idontgetit]

I seem to recall reading (maybe Tournament Go 1992?) that if one player wins the first 3 games of a 7 game match and then the other the next 3 in most cases that 2nd comeback player keeps the momentum and wins the decider. However clicking through Mr Kin's site I find 2 exceptions: Iyama winning the 39th Kisei against Yamashita and Yamashita winning the 66th Honinbo against Hane, and only 1 conforming with Hane winning 63rd Honinbo against Takao. Maybe some kind forum member has stats going back further.

The Japanese seem to be really big on this "nagare". I personally don't believe in it, other than the placebo effects it might have.

[uPWarrior]

I recall reading some time ago (years?) an article analyzing streaks on basketball free throws (i.e., if they occur more often than chance would predict, and by how much), but I don't remember what the conclusion was. Someone might be able to dig it up.

In any case, I don't think it totally applies here: go players might figure out the best way to adjust to a particular opponent, while basketball players don't have issues with a particularly tricky hoop.

[hyperpape]

@Uberdude Three examples of cases where someone came back from 3-0 are on the Honinbo page at Senseis. http://senseis.xmp.net/?Honinbo#8. I thought there was a complete list of all times it had happened somewhere on SL, but I can't find it. That doesn't tell us how many times were near-misses, though.

@uPWarrior: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=12617

[uPWarrior]

Thanks hyperape, looks like it was less than a year ago after all.

[Vesa]

In Go and in other things, the past doesn't predict the future very well.

Cheers,
Vesa

[by78]

Nothing against Iyama of course but now that he has achieved the grand slam of Japanese titles, I kind of want other players to win some titles, especially "new faces" like Ichiriki. I feel this can only make the go scene more interesting.

Yeah. Honestly Iyama should lose all his titles and start trying his luck in international titles. Then we can know whether he's top class or not after all.

What do you mean by "top class"? If by that you mean top 15 or 20 in the world, then there is probably no need for Iyama to play internationally to find out because he doesn't belong.

[Uberdude]

I missed you by78.

[by78]

Yeah. Honestly Iyama should lose all his titles and start trying his luck in international titles. Then we can know whether he's top class or not after all.

Ichikiri and Yu are actually good candidates, their recent international performances are pretty good.

What do you mean by "pretty good"? Ichiriki recently won a game against Lee Sedol by 0.5, and that's about the only notable win I could find between Ichiriki and Yu against international competition from Korea and China. Looking through their records going two years back, they both lost consistently against middling competitors from China and Korea.