2016 Samsung Cup

[xiayun]

Going to be busy month for Ke Jie: three finals (Samsung, Bailing, and Ahan Tongshan Cup against Kono Rin) and one quarterfinal/semifinal (Chunlan Cup).

[emeraldemon]

Goratings has Tuo Jiaxi as #3 in the world now, just behind Park Junghwan. I think Tuo has as good a chance as anyone of stopping Ke Jie. But that isn't saying much, Ke Jie is just too strong right now. Go4Go records Ke Jie as having a lifetime 71.1% winning percentage, which is pretty insane. He regularly plays against the best in the world, and he wins 7 out of 10 games.

[idontgetit]

and that's lifetime. He's 18-4 this year in the Chinese A league, and he was captain (i.e playing the toughest opponents) every round.

[Uberdude]

Since the start of 2013 Ke Jie is 207/275 (75%), in 2014 was 54/69 (78%), in 2015 was 73/91 (80%) and so far this year 56/77 (73%) going by games in go4go.

[John Fairbairn]

Go4Go records Ke Jie as having a lifetime 71.1% winning percentage, which is pretty insane.

Actually this seems par for the course, if you are the top player. We'll have to wait a while for Ke Jie to decline with age, but if you take only peak periods, Yi Ch'ang-ho was over 80% at one point, and Go Seigen was well over 70% (and despite often giving handicaps, Sakata was over 70%, and Cho Hun-hyeon...

If you look at lifetime averages of those who have actually lived for quite a bit longer than Ke:

Yi Ch'ang-ho is still on 70%.
Yi Se-tol is on 67%.
Go Seigen is on 66% (but in his case he took White almost 60% of the time - and usually no komi -whereas most other players come out much closer 50% White)
Cho Hun-hyeon is also on 66%
Gu Li is on 64%
Cho Chikun and Sakata are both on 61%

If you class these as the Truly Great and take, as a kind of reference point, typical lifetime averages for the Perhaps Not Quite So Great, you'll typically get figures like 55% for both Nie Weiping and Takemiya and Rin Kaiho.

Going back to young players who have not yet had time to decline, Iyama is on 69% and Pak Cheong-hwan is on 67%.

All data come from the GoGoD database, so coverage is not 100%, but is not far short, and it includes some amateur/handicap games for all of them, and excludes jigos.

[emeraldemon]

Thanks John. Although I do think Ke Jie is the best right now, he will have to stay on top a while longer to be in the same ranks as Go Seigen, Yi Changho, Cho Chikun, etc. Winning the Samsung Cup again would certainly be good for his legacy

[hyperpape]

I don't think go4go tries to have perfect coverage of any players, especially in their early years when they play a lot of preliminaries. That could sway Ke's percentage in either direction, depending on how games were selected.

[Brooklyn]

Go4Go records Ke Jie as having a lifetime 71.1% winning percentage, which is pretty insane.

Actually this seems par for the course, if you are the top player. We'll have to wait a while for Ke Jie to decline with age, but if you take only peak periods, Yi Ch'ang-ho was over 80% at one point, and Go Seigen was well over 70% (and despite often giving handicaps, Sakata was over 70%, and Cho Hun-hyeon...

If you look at lifetime averages of those who have actually lived for quite a bit longer than Ke:

Yi Ch'ang-ho is still on 70%.
Yi Se-tol is on 67%.
Go Seigen is on 66% (but in his case he took White almost 60% of the time - and usually no komi -whereas most other players come out much closer 50% White)
Cho Hun-hyeon is also on 66%
Gu Li is on 64%
Cho Chikun and Sakata are both on 61%

If you class these as the Truly Great and take, as a kind of reference point, typical lifetime averages for the Perhaps Not Quite So Great, you'll typically get figures like 55% for both Nie Weiping and Takemiya and Rin Kaiho.

Going back to young players who have not yet had time to decline, Iyama is on 69% and Pak Cheong-hwan is on 67%.

All data come from the GoGoD database, so coverage is not 100%, but is not far short, and it includes some amateur/handicap games for all of them, and excludes jigos.

John, thank you for this data as it puts things in historical perspective. However, the numbers that you mention completely miss a crucial point - strength of competition.

Take a look at how deep the talent pool is in China right now. Using goratings, Tang Weixing, a two-time world champion and reigning Ing Cup winner is only the 13th best player in China. Fan Tingyu, also an Ing Cup winner who recently won an unprecedented 8 games in a row in the Nong Shim Cup, is only the 14th best player in China. It makes perfect sense that goratings, using an ELO system which accounts for the strength of opponent, currently has Ke Jie at the highest ELO rank in go history.

Now one can debate the accuracy of ELO and potential inflation of ELO ranks over time. But for the past 20 years or so, the #1 player in the world has consistently been in the 3500 range in ELO. Lee Changho at his peak - when he dominated with the highest win % in history - could never break through to 3600. Only in the past two years has Ke Jie been able to break that barrier. If you examine closer and view Ke Jie's match list,it is a gauntlet of tough players with very few layups. Lee Changho had relatively weaker competition with plenty of easy matches on his schedule. It is my opinion that Ke Jie's past two years is the strongest two year run in go history.

Lets take a quick look at Ke Jie's recent form. Here is his match list over the past two months:


Date Rating Color Result Opponent Kifu
2016-12-03 3630 Black Win Tan Xiao 3474
2016-12-01 3630 White Loss Kim Jiseok 3495
2016-11-21 3630 White Win Shi Yue 3521
2016-11-18 3630 Black Win Zhou Ruiyang 3516
2016-11-14 3630 White Win Lee Donghoon 3460
2016-11-10 3630 Black Win Ida Atsushi 3261
2016-11-08 3630 White Win Tang Weixing 3461
2016-11-06 3630 Black Win Ahn Kukhyun 3300
2016-11-04 3630 Black Win Zhong Wenjing 3337
2016-11-02 3630 White Win Lee Sedol 3508
2016-11-01 3630 White Loss Lee Sedol 3508
2016-10-31 3630 Black Win Lee Sedol 3508
2016-10-28 3630 White Win Guo Wenchao 3308
2016-10-15 3629 White Loss Mi Yuting 3539
2016-10-14 3629 White Win Tuo Jiaxi 3542
2016-10-12 3629 White Win Chen Yaoye 3490
2016-10-10 3629 Black Win Choi Cheolhan 3477
2016-10-08 3629 White Win Xie Ke 3290
2016-10-06 3629 Black Win Zhou Ruiyang 3513
2016-10-04 3628 White Win Lee Donghoon 3460

Ke Jie has gone 17-3 for an 85% win rate and the competition is ridiculously strong. He faced Lee Sedol x3. Mi Yuting, Tuo Jiaxi, Zhou Ruiyang x2, Shi Yue, Kim Jiseok, Chen Yaoye and Choi Cheolhan are all world champions. 11 out of 20 games were against world champions with an average ELO of around 3500. Furthermore he had 2 games with Lee Donghoon, Korea's #7 player and 3460 ELO rating, and Tan Xiao, China's #8 and ELO rating of 3474.

This brings us to a wider point that is often debated in many disciplines - old vs new and the general progression of skill level over the years. Historians especially revere past eras and will generally take the stance that the older generations were just as good if not better than the new kids. Quite a few baseball historians will say that Ty Cobb or Ted Williams was the best hitter to every play the game and point to their seasons where they had a batting average of over .400. I actually think that if Ted Williams were born in this era, he would have a great chance to be the best hitter of this generation as well. But there is just no way to know. What we do know is that the talent pool of baseball today includes African Americans and players from all over the world. In Ted Williams era, these players were all excluded from the talent pool. Furthermore, there have been tremendous advances in game play, from relief pitcher usage, to defensive shifts, etc. There is just no question that the overall quality of play is far better today than in the far past.

I believe the same principles apply equally to go. Regarding the talent pool issue, let's first take the premise that if you are living as a peasant in abject poverty, you will not have the resources to pursue a career in go. Little wonder that Korean Go took off in the 90's as economic development in the 70's and 80's created a larger middle class with the resources to allow their children the luxury of devoting time to studying a game. Chinese economic development in the 90's and 00's led to the current boom of Chinese Go that started in the 2010's. Even in a very poor country, there will be a genius child that is the son of tiny elite such as Go Seigen or Cho Hunhyun. But the depth of talent in China and Korea was non-existent back then as the general population was having a hard enough time finding their next meal. With the explosion of China's middle class, I would guess that the talent pool is at least 10x as large as it was during Lee Changho's prime and 100x as large as it was during Cho Chikun's prime.

Next, let us discuss other advances, namely internet go. As Kim Myunghwan has stated on numerous occasions on AGA broadcasts, internet go and online study groups have played a huge role in players getting stronger. Go players have far greater access to quality games and instruction than they did in the past and this has a direct effect on playing strengths.

These facts are not meant to diminish the achievement of players in the past. It is however meant to fully appreciate the achievement of Ke Jie. To say his current run is merely "par for the course" is in my opinion a grave distortion of the what I believe to be the truth - that Ke Jie's run is in terms of pure go playing strength, the greatest achievement in the long history of this great game.

[pookpooi]

Brooklyn, it's possible that in the future Ke Jie peak will be decreased to less than 3600 since goratings use Whole History Rating.

My personal indicator is how long the number one can maintained his top position. So in Ke Jie case I'll have to wait and see for at least twelve years. Meanwhile the biggest obstacle for the precise ranking is go4go database, especially in Go Seigen era and before.

[xiayun]

Among the top players, Ke Jie is 3-4 vs. Park Junghwan, 6-1 against Tuo Jiaxi, 4-1 vs. Mi Yuting, 8-7 vs. Shi Yue (6-3 since 2015), 8-0 vs. Zhou Ruiyang, 10-3 vs. Lee Sedol, 4-2 vs. Lian Xiao, 2-3 vs. Kim Jiseok, 6-6 vs. Chen Yaoye, 6-0 vs. Gu Li. These are based on the go4go data.

[Kirby]

Kind of reminds me of debates about the best basketball player between Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Jordan has argued that basketball is a different game today than it was during his prime, and LeBron argues that he's simply more skilled.

I feel both sides of the argument have merit. On one hand, the skill level today appears stronger than that of the past. On the other hand, the "kids" of today have advantages not available back in the day. Could the stars of the past overcome today's greats given the same advantages?

Nobody really knows.

My opinion is, to be best in the world in any time period is an amazing feat.

[Brooklyn]

Brooklyn, it's possible that in the future Ke Jie peak will be decreased to less than 3600 since goratings use Whole History Rating.

My personal indicator is how long the number one can maintained his top position. So in Ke Jie case I'll have to wait and see for at least twelve years. Meanwhile the biggest obstacle for the precise ranking is go4go database, especially in Go Seigen era and before.

Ke Jie has maintained 3600+ for almost 2 years now. He only has two more months to go and he's got 30 points to spare so we even if he performs poorly over the next two months, he most likely will have maintained 3600+ for 2+ years. That is in my opinion the strongest 2 year stretch in go history.

As for missing games in the database, we might be missing some early Ke Jie games, but we certainly have just about every single game over the last two years, which is the time frame I am discussing. Is it possible that Go Seigen had a stronger 2 year stretch that we don't know about due to missing game records? I guess it is possible, but highly doubtful as the strength of his opponents was just too low compared to the depth of today's game.

[Brooklyn]

Kind of reminds me of debates about the best basketball player between Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Jordan has argued that basketball is a different game today than it was during his prime, and LeBron argues that he's simply more skilled.

I feel both sides of the argument have merit. On one hand, the skill level today appears stronger than that of the past. On the other hand, the "kids" of today have advantages not available back in the day. Could the stars of the past overcome today's greats given the same advantages?

Nobody really knows.

My opinion is, to be best in the world in any time period is an amazing feat.

If Go Seigen were re-incarnated in today's era and had the same environment since birth as Ke Jie, who would be better? Obviously that is a hypothetical that no one can answer.

If peak form Go Seigen were re-incarnated in today's era and played Ke Jie straight up, obviously it wouldn't even be close, especially due to the accumulated knowledge of all these years.

Let's say Go Seigen was the best player out of a pool of 1 million players. Who knows what the actual number is but let's just roll with it. Let's say Ke Jie is the best player out of a pool of 1 billion players. Could Go Seigen actually have been 1 out of a billion if given the chance? Again, possible but not probable. And again, no way to know.

Bottom line again is not to discount Go Seigen or Cho Chikun, Lee Changho, etc. I am not saying that they could not have been one out of a billion if given the chance. I am saying Ke Jie is currently the one out of a billion and ranking first in a MUCH tougher environment is a more impressive achievement than ranking first in a far easier environment.

Any way you slice it, it a'int just par for the course is the point I'm trying to make.

[Kirby]

You could be correct, Brooklyn, but I think your argument over-simplifies the situation. Obviously, all other things being equal (variance in population, etc.), it is more difficult to achieve #1 out of a higher population. But there are many important yet unquantifiable variables that play into the equation. For example, if you have someone aiming to be number 1, that drive might be able to take them there, regardless of the population.

We know more about physics than in Einstein's time, but who is to say how good of a physicist he'd be today.

Of course this is all hypothetical and we can only give our opinions.

You have admitted that an older generation player could possibly be as skilled as Ke Jie if they peaked today, but it is not probable.

The only part that I disagree with is that it is not possible to quantify this probability with any accuracy - who knows - maybe Ke Jie's presence would be enough to drive a modern day Go Seigen to the top. Or maybe not.

The population is greater today, but I don't feel it gives us much data to answer this question.

That all being said, for fun, if I had to guess, I think your conclusion about Ke Jie is correct. But that's just a hunch, which is not scientific in any way.

[Brooklyn]

Kind of reminds me of debates about the best basketball player between Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Jordan has argued that basketball is a different game today than it was during his prime, and LeBron argues that he's simply more skilled.

I feel both sides of the argument have merit. On one hand, the skill level today appears stronger than that of the past. On the other hand, the "kids" of today have advantages not available back in the day. Could the stars of the past overcome today's greats given the same advantages?

Nobody really knows.

My opinion is, to be best in the world in any time period is an amazing feat.

Jordan vs. James - The talent pool in basketball is greater now than in the mid 80's to 90's but the difference isn't that great. There wasn't an obvious event such as the breaking of the color barrier in baseball that opened the flood gates. Sure you have a lot more international players now, but even in the 80's you had guys like Patrick Ewing and Hakeem Olajuwon that were born overseas and basically recruited for their athletic ability. The leap in talent pool and overall quality development in basketball from the 60's to the 80's is far greater than from the 90's to today. While advances are continuing and the talent pool growing, it has definitely plateaued.

If you look at historical ELO rankings, the top player throughout the 70s and 80s consistently had a ELO rating in the 3300s. Then Lee Changho came along and established a baseline of 3500. He led a wave of Koreans that were new additions to the talent pool that made the competition much tougher than when the pool was limited only to Japan. The top 10 went from all Japanese, to a mix of Japanese and Koreans. Chinese economic development occurred a little after Korea but you can see China rising slowly during Lee Changho's era. Then in the 2010's you see an explosion of Chinese players in the top 10 and Ke Jie sets a new ELO bar at 3600.

I imagine we will see it plateau from here on forward. Maybe if go becomes huge in India and a billion new people start taking the game seriously, then we may see another big talent pool jump.