How is your positional judgement? Game 29

[Bill Spight]

After the Elf commentary gives one player a winrate estimate of 91% with 29.5k rollouts, assuming area scoring with a 7.5 pt. komi. Which player is it?

$$Bcm39 White to play
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$$ | . X X , X . O . . X . . . . . O O . . |
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Click Here To Show Diagram Code

[go]$$Bcm39 White to play
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$$ | . . . X . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . O . . . . . O . . . . X . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X O O . |
$$ | . . O . X . . . O X . . . X X O X X . |
$$ | . X X , X . O . . X . . . . . O O . . |
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$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Enjoy!

[TelegraphGo]

There don't seem to be any glaring tactical inefficiencies, so the position is probably dependent on efficiency of influence. It looks to me like white is very well positioned in front of black's influence. It's nice, flexible shape, and very efficiently out into the center. If you gave black komi instead of white, I'd consider the game only slightly good for black - that means I think white is definitely better.

That said, don't give me the white stones against a pro here. It's very hard to play good moves in this kind of position. It's so hard that I'm going to go a step further on the guessing and bet that black won this game, even though white has a commanding lead.

Nobody's been wrong on two counts in one of these before, and I plan to be the first!

[jlt]

Territory: Black's bottom left is equivalent to White's bottom right, but White has a better grip on the upper right corner than Black on the upper left. However, White bottom corner is surrounded. Black has some territory on the bottom, but White has some potential on the left side.

Weaknesses: Black has no weak groups and two of his groups are super-strong and alive. Black owes a move around Q15 but White's R11 is also lonely so it's not clear who is going to attack whom. White has a weak group on the bottom, but it's out in the center so not in great danger. On the other hand, Black has shoulder hit the C7 stone, so White needs to answer. Perhaps Black is leaning on C7 in order to prepare an attack on the central white group.

Black's shape on the bottom right: I don't know if my judgement is correct but it feels a bit overconcentrated.

Conclusion: I prefer White, but not by a large amount.

[Knotwilg]

Before looking at the other answers or Kata/LZ:

I prefer White.

$$W
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$$ | . . a X . . . . . . . . . . C . X . . |
$$ | . . O . . . c . O . . . . X . X . . . |
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Click Here To Show Diagram Code

[go]$$W
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$$ | . . a X . . . . . . . . . . C . X . . |
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I see little reason not to connect at A. Black has an attack going on but White can make shape at either B or C. At the top right, White has easy territory and can treat D and E as miai. Black has good shape in the lower right of the center but can be forced at the marked points. When asking myself where Black's inefficiency is then most observable, I come to the marked stone and also the overlapping influence at the bottom/centre.

Overall, I find the position is already close on the board and White leads by komi, if there is one.

[xela]

I prefer white.

I think settled territory is about equal. I was initially worried about white having "two weak groups", but I think the C5 and C7 stones are light and can be sacrificed, and it's white to play, so white can defend the bottom group on the next move (I'm thinking probably K5, or maybe F7). Overall it feels as though white has room for expanding, while black is low at B4 and G17.

[Uberdude]

Hmmm, this one is tricky, there's a lot of fairly hot local situations, I don't think doing a static positional count will be accurate enough to be useful, nor can I reliably rewind the game to find play-by-play mistakes.

Top left, low approach a 3-4 is fine, g17 response is slack, though given white at top right the more normal bot move now at f16 would leave white a good point at h17 so maybe it's not so bad here.

Top right, approach, knight, kick all moves you can see in bot games, so assuming black was playing decent moves with his tenukis (which he may not) this is a fair result (in that each player is getting a reasonable value from the number of stones invested)

Lower left black e5 sticks out as an odd-looking move. It does stop white attaching there to make shape, but presumably there was a more efficient way to split those white groups; did it happen like this? 2 is soft, and kick 4 for 5 seems dodgy too. So I think white did better with these moves.

$$W
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Click Here To Show Diagram Code

[go]$$W
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$$ | . 2 X , X . 5 . .
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There was actually a game I played where LZ recommended a similar iron pillar to the centre, something like below, but there it makes more sense in defending against k17 whilst also denying black attachment there to make shape (can't recall if it there was also the g14 weakness, that's another aim in this similar shape from joseki: http://josekipedia.com/#path:qdncodpblcndocobqcnfmbnbld.

$$Bc
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Click Here To Show Diagram Code

[go]$$Bc
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$$ | . . X O . . . . . . . . . .[/go]

The connect/block at c8 is a hot area though actually as white I don't mind so much letting black get it because with b4 and e5 present white is not doing much with c5 and c7 to black's strong shape so it's only abut a dozen points of yose, more important is the eyespace it would give to c10. Also if black does c8 it gives me a nice excuse to play f7, asking black to spend another move at d7 to become inefficient whilst white makes some shape for the lower side weak group.

Lower white group k6 is an obvious bulge point to strengthen, but also white can let black take it and still run away. Is a black cap at j9 scary? Somewhat but that group seems to have options.

Lower side black has some territory and thickness. Would n3 be better at o3? o7 net is very honte and is the kind of move I used to happily play, but I wonder is it a bit slack here? o5 group is safe enough if white ran out the stone, but q7 group is not give white has r11 and r6 captured 2 stones. Would o8 be a better net, or even some kind of leaning thing like q10? I don't necessarily want to make r11 stronger though. Is black p2 sente? If not and white might get o2 and/or k2 yose, p8 peep then I'm leaning towards black being inefficient here.

White lower right corner looks alright. Black got a nice atari kikashi at p5 but white has good solid profit and r8 is in the wrong place (if we can move it given the net then better at s7 for gote sente difference.

Right side also seems fairly hot, if black runs r15 it's locally a weak group but once he weathers th local disadvantage and gets out he could end up using the thickness below to surround and attack r11. I'm wondering if black can make o15 attachment to get some sente exchanges and then p11, or maybe just s16 and cheap atari and q12 shoulder hit.

How's c10 doing? Particularly if we allow black c8? If white can exchange f16 f17 c17 c18 d16 e17, the classic kikashi against g17 low shape then I'm even happy to tenuki black c8 and deal with black c12 later now the c15 stone got stronger in sente. Maybe black won't f17 though but resist at c16 or d15.

So where do I want to play as white? Main areas are:
- f17, try to get some helping sente exchanges so I can tenuki right side later and worry less
- c8, connect a few stones.
- k6 bulge to strengthen weak group
- p11 to start gobbling r15 on large scale (q15 feels too honte given o16 there) and prevent black running it out with counterattack potential.

So overall I think white does feel a bit more dynamic and efficient so is probably ahead. But I didn't actually count any points so maybe White is dynamically handling his weak groups that aren't making points.

[Kirby]

Black seems better

[Harleqin]

First impression: White is thin on both the left and lower sides, while Black only has the single stone in the upper right as a potential weakness (but that is rather light till now, and the white stone on that side is also a bit lonely).

In fact, it seems that Black is now leaning on the left to attack in the lower centre, so I feel that Black has the initiative.

Naïve continuation:

$$Wcm40 White to play
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Click Here To Show Diagram Code

[go]$$Wcm40 White to play
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$$ | . . 1 X . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
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$$ | . . O . X . . . O X . . . X X O X X . |
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$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

Black has points like 'a', 'b', or 'c' to aim at.

Second assessment: counting only clear territory, it seems that White has about 15 points in the lower right, 10 points in the upper right, plus komi, is about 32 points. Black has 15 in the lower left, maybe about 10 with the strong lower/centre group, 4 at the top, for about 29 points. That is essentially the same, with my margin of error.

Since White is then not clearly behind territorywise: if I were White, I'd try to dodge here somehow and take the intiative on the right side. Maybe like this?

$$Wcm40 White to play
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$$ | . . O , 3 . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
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$$ | . . 4 X . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . O 2 . 1 . . O . . . . X . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X O O . |
$$ | . . O . X . . . O X . . . X X O X X . |
$$ | . X X , X . O . . X . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . X . . O . . . |
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$$ ---------------------------------------

Click Here To Show Diagram Code

[go]$$Wcm40 White to play
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$$ | . . O , 3 . . . . , . . . . . , . . . |
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$$ | . . 4 X . . . . . . . . . . . . X . . |
$$ | . . O 2 . 1 . . O . . . . X . X . . . |
$$ | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O X O O . |
$$ | . . O . X . . . O X . . . X X O X X . |
$$ | . X X , X . O . . X . . . . . O O . . |
$$ | . . . . . X O . . . . . X . . O . . . |
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$$ ---------------------------------------[/go]

If this turns out to be a sound strategy, it might not be so clear anymore. However, I still feel that White is thin, so my overall guess as to Elf's judgement is: Black.

[Joaz Banbeck]

I like black. The black stones are either strong or light. So black is well prepared for fighting.

White, OTOH, has defects all over. If I had a bot's fighting skill, I'm pretty sure that I'd kill one or more white groups.
To some posters, white looks efficient. I think white just looks thin.

Hmmm...after offering my opinion, I looked at the others. My opinion remains unaltered.

[Uberdude]

Maybe a mini-Malkovich would be interesting, I play white and Joaz black for a bit of middlegame until we reach a position we both agree is good for the same colour.

[Joaz Banbeck]

... If I had a bot's fighting skill, I'm pretty sure that I'd kill one or more white groups..

Maybe a mini-Malkovich would be interesting, I play white and Joaz black for a bit of middlegame until we reach a position we both agree is good for the same colour.

OK with me, if I get to use the aforementioned bot.