Is the 3-3 double hane switcheroo ponnuki joseki ever good?
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xela
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Re: Is the 3-3 double hane switcheroo ponnuki joseki ever go
Fascinating and very strange! KataGo doesn't agree with Elf here. What does ELF give as winrates? There's a difference between "black plays this way because it wins the game" versus "black is losing and playing desperate moves to complicate things". KataGo thinks white is 8-12 points ahead in all variations, assuming 7.5 komi.
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Bill Spight
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Re: Is the 3-3 double hane switcheroo ponnuki joseki ever go
My first thought when seeing the cut was, If this were a human we might say that Black is looking for a place to resign.xela wrote:Fascinating and very strange! KataGo doesn't agree with Elf here. What does ELF give as winrates? There's a difference between "black plays this way because it wins the game" versus "black is losing and playing desperate moves to complicate things". KataGo thinks white is 8-12 points ahead in all variations, assuming 7.5 komi.
I didn't give any winrate differences because they are misleading so close to 0 or 100%. Here are Elf's winrates at pertinent points.
In the game record,
, the second line hane. Black 4.0% (41.9k rollouts); 
, the switcheroo ponnuki, Black 1.1% (120.6k rollouts).In the usual variation,
,the third line atari to prepare the usual ponnuki, Black 4.1% (71.8k rollouts).In the cut variation,
the fourth line cut, Black 5.3% (79.9k rollouts).The 3% winrate difference between the usual ponnuki and the switcheroo is huge so near to 0%. And the 1.2% difference between the cut and the usual ponnuki is not so small, either. Here is where KataGo's point differences are easier to interpret than winrate differences, if not in general.
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Elf also proposes a variation to save the corner, starting with
below, with a winrate estimate of 2.3% (29.9k rollouts).The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
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lightvector
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Re: Is the 3-3 double hane switcheroo ponnuki joseki ever go
With 7.5 komi, using a recent 40-block KataGo net (this particular one not released, but should be similar to the ones released), about 100k playouts:
* Regular ponnuki - 4.4% winrate for black, behind by about 9 points.
* Switcheroo ponnuki - 1.6% winrate for black, behind by about 13 points.
* Elf sacrifice variation - 2.8% winrate for black, behind by about 12.5 points.
* Elf save corner variation - 2.6% winrate for black, behind by about 10.5 points.
For the latter three, often KataGo wants to deviate at various points mid-variation as well for both sides. Overall it thinks the regular ponnuki is the correct variation.
In the first three cases black's next move after getting sente is to cut at O10. In the last case, it's to block at Q2.
* Regular ponnuki - 4.4% winrate for black, behind by about 9 points.
* Switcheroo ponnuki - 1.6% winrate for black, behind by about 13 points.
* Elf sacrifice variation - 2.8% winrate for black, behind by about 12.5 points.
* Elf save corner variation - 2.6% winrate for black, behind by about 10.5 points.
For the latter three, often KataGo wants to deviate at various points mid-variation as well for both sides. Overall it thinks the regular ponnuki is the correct variation.
In the first three cases black's next move after getting sente is to cut at O10. In the last case, it's to block at Q2.
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xela
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Re: Is the 3-3 double hane switcheroo ponnuki joseki ever go
OK, so it's firmly in the "playing desperate moves from a lost position" camp. Hard to say that one variation is better than another in this context.Bill Spight wrote:I didn't give any winrate differences because they are misleading so close to 0 or 100%.
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Bill Spight
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Re: Is the 3-3 double hane switcheroo ponnuki joseki ever go
Indeed.xela wrote:OK, so it's firmly in the "playing desperate moves from a lost position" camp. Hard to say that one variation is better than another in this context.Bill Spight wrote:I didn't give any winrate differences because they are misleading so close to 0 or 100%.
My guess is that with perfect play by White Black is a goner. What's best depends upon White's imperfections. It could be that both KataGo and Elf are right, in the sense that each chooses the line of play that gives itself, as White, the most trouble.
The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
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lightvector
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Re: Is the 3-3 double hane switcheroo ponnuki joseki ever go
If you set the komi to -2.5, KataGo thinks the game is much closer to fair. It thinks black is still 0.5 points behind, which is not entirely consistent with its estimation of black in the original state being behind by 0.5, since black has just gained 10 points over its initial estimate of black behind by 9. Possibly this is due to the search now exploring significantly different lines *after* the corner sequence due to the closer winrate for how black should handle the white center group.
But anyways, it still believes that the regular ponnuki is the best option, and that all the other options lose both points and a lot of winrate compared to the regular ponnuki. The score *differences* it gives for the various options are actually still reasonably consistent with the 7.5 komi evaluation - about 4 points loss for switcheroo, about 3 points loss for sacrificing, and about 1-1.5 points loss for saving the corner, although this time I only waited for a few tens of thousands of playouts on each instead of 100k.
It also thinks that one of white's moves on the corner saving variation is a significant mistake, white can do better if black tries to play this way. Given that at this point, KataGo should usually be quite a bit stronger than ELF, and that at least its preferences line up pretty well between the komi-adjusted and non-komi-adjusted cases, I'm inclined to distrust ELF here about what the "correct" variation is, except insofar as maybe ELF could be evaluating the winrate correctly "for itself" as Bill suggested.
But anyways, it still believes that the regular ponnuki is the best option, and that all the other options lose both points and a lot of winrate compared to the regular ponnuki. The score *differences* it gives for the various options are actually still reasonably consistent with the 7.5 komi evaluation - about 4 points loss for switcheroo, about 3 points loss for sacrificing, and about 1-1.5 points loss for saving the corner, although this time I only waited for a few tens of thousands of playouts on each instead of 100k.
It also thinks that one of white's moves on the corner saving variation is a significant mistake, white can do better if black tries to play this way. Given that at this point, KataGo should usually be quite a bit stronger than ELF, and that at least its preferences line up pretty well between the komi-adjusted and non-komi-adjusted cases, I'm inclined to distrust ELF here about what the "correct" variation is, except insofar as maybe ELF could be evaluating the winrate correctly "for itself" as Bill suggested.
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Bill Spight
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Re: Is the 3-3 double hane switcheroo ponnuki joseki ever go
In the search for the margin of error for winrates, I considered using the log of the odds ratio instead. However, I decided not to bother, because it seems to me that when the winrate is near 0 or 100%, the search will be greatly affected. So I just take winrate estimates less than 10% or greater than 90% with a large grain of salt. I don't know if this matters for KataGo and point estimates, however.lightvector wrote:If you set the komi to -2.5, KataGo thinks the game is much closer to fair. It thinks black is still 0.5 points behind, which is not entirely consistent with its estimation of black in the original state being behind by 0.5, since black has just gained 10 points over its initial estimate of black behind by 9. Possibly this is due to the search now exploring significantly different lines *after* the corner sequence due to the closer winrate for how black should handle the white center group.
I like the idea of setting komi with KataGo for analytical purposes. For one thing, my guess is that the top choices will be closer to correct play, instead of desperation measures. That's closer to how humans try to do analysis, anyway. As for making plays that put the game on the line (勝負手) or looking for a place to resign, we humans are rather good at that, when playing against other humans. The bot equivalent often strikes us as silly.
There is a phenomenon with chess engines that may appear with go bots, as well, that humans are not able in some positions, to apply the AI evaluations. GM Ben Finegold sometimes points out that engines may evaluate the position his is discussing as even or nearly so, but that he and other human GMs much prefer one side or the other, typically the side with an attack, because the engines know how to defend against the attack, but humans don't.It also thinks that one of white's moves on the corner saving variation is a significant mistake, white can do better if black tries to play this way. Given that at this point, KataGo should usually be quite a bit stronger than ELF, and that at least its preferences line up pretty well between the komi-adjusted and non-komi-adjusted cases, I'm inclined to distrust ELF here about what the "correct" variation is, except insofar as maybe ELF could be evaluating the winrate correctly "for itself" as Bill suggested.
The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
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Bill Spight
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Re: Is the 3-3 double hane switcheroo ponnuki joseki ever go
In the exception that Uberdude found, Elf agrees with LZ that 
should be the kick at a, and also that 
is better than the atari at b.
For, Elf still likes the kick, with this mainline variation.
After the keima,
, 
makes the solid connection, and then 
pincers the two Black stones. White is playing catch-up. Perhaps we can consider this pincer a shobute.
White makes the same pincer in the game, but this way it is backed up by the ponnuki in the top right. This way may be better versus another human. White did go on to win the game.
should be the kick at a, and also that is better than the atari at b.For
, Elf still likes the kick, with this mainline variation.After the keima,
, makes the solid connection, and then pincers the two Black stones. White is playing catch-up. Perhaps we can consider this pincer a shobute.White makes the same pincer in the game, but this way it is backed up by the ponnuki in the top right. This way may be better versus another human. White did go on to win the game.
The Adkins Principle:
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.
At some point, doesn't thinking have to go on?
— Winona Adkins
Visualize whirled peas.
Everything with love. Stay safe.